ChristianKl

Sequences

Random Attempts at Apllied Rationality
Using Credence Calibration for Everything
NLP and other Self-Improvement
The Grueling Subject
Medical Paradigms

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Writing a post titled "to know or not to know" without addressing the elephant in the room that there's a good chance of human extinction due to AI feels strange.

If you want to design an artificial organism with lower mutation rate you can do so. With existing biology most of the space of 3-base pair combinations that equals 64 combinations is mapped to the 20 amino acids. Many amino acids have multiple codings. That means that most amino acids give you a different amino acid.

If you go up to 4 or even 5 base pairs per amino acid and remove duplicate assignments most mutations won't lead to amino acids and you can add additional repair mechanisms.

The basic theory of coding that we use in computer science to prevent errors in message transmission can be used to reduce DNA mutation in artificial life if we desire to do so.

As an extra you get immunity from all the viruses that need the standard coding.

As far as I understand what Satya, was saying that 80 billion is what Microsoft wants to invest per year into Azure infrastructure. 

That does not seem to be a part of the money that goes to Stargate.

The 0.5 is planned, but it's not clear that the funding is actually there.

How could consistently positive results with large effect sizes persist for 30 years if the peptide is truly ineffective?

A majority of research studies in homeopathy find clinical effects. If you however limited yourself to high quality research papers, homeopathy seems to provide no clinical benefits. There are plenty of anecdotal reports of people getting large effect sizes from homeopathy. 

It's the key argument for evidence-based medicine. Various placebo effects frequently make people believe that they have effective treatments when the treatment itself does nothing. While I argued that you could switch to prediction-based medicine and have an alternative to evidence-based medicine, medicine by anecdotes might just be a bad paradigm.

How do we explain the independent researchers in Taiwan/China/Korea? Are they complicit or just publishing invalid results?

Any honest researcher, that publishes research showing that BCP-157 is great, should be interested in what the protein actually does in the normal metabolism. Not doing the literature review to find out that BCP-157 does not seem to come from an exciting protein suggests complicity.

Publishing negative results is generally hard and there's little checks to scientific fraud in the far east.

Why establish a company and pursue patents if it's entirely fraudulent?

As long as people are willing to buy a treatment the company makes money even if the patients don't get results. BCP-157 is popular. 

How plausible is the existence of an undiscovered stomach protein?

We sequenced the genome of most mammalian species, so there are no unknown mammalian proteins. To have an unknown undiscovered stomach protein, it would need to be produced by a bacteria that lives in the stomach that nobody has identified and sequenced. That seems implausible in 2025 given that we have shotgun sequencing to identify all bacteria in a given area. Remember that the bacteria would need to produce enough of the protein for the protein to be harvested the way Predrag claimed. 

How has no one in the fitness/biohacking community noticed it's completely bunk?

That does suggest that there's a problem with those communities and people in general not doing deep research. Even when I emailed the people at Examine.com, that wasn't enough to get them to update their article to show that BCP-157 is likely complete bunk. The communities seem to be trend-driven. Influences make a lot of money with affiliate deals.

I'm at 10%, 25%, 50%, 15%. What about you @ChristianKl?

When you inject a random peptide, you get an inflammation response in the area where you injected it. There might be cases where that produces a useful therapeutic effect. 

Apart from that I would give complete fabrication maybe 95%. 

I focused my post on the argument that the BCP-157 doesn't come from a know protein, but that isn't the only argument to be made.

If Big Pharma companies would believe that BCP-157 is real, they would likely want to produce drugs that target the mechanisms through which BCP-157 produces it's effects. 

Bryan Krause answer to my Stackexchange post analysis the implausibility of the early BCP-157 research in more detail. 

It's been a while since I looked into the animal research, but from what I remember given the size of BCP-157, it shouldn't be absorbed from the intestines into the blood, but the animal research suggests it has some effects when ingested orally, that would not just require it to have an effect but also be absorbed from the intestines into the blood. That's another sign that the animal studies are crap.

Yes, what's covered by price gouging would likely expand. 

Politicians who want to balance the budget will find it easier to argue to expand the revenue through expanding what's covered under price gouging than to raise income or sales taxes. Opposition to the proposal would also be harder than to oppose what's currently covered as evil socialist price setting by the government. 

Kamala campaigned on making more price gouging illegal than currently is illegal. Thinking that this will only ever apply to the type of price gauging that was previously illegal ignores how the politics are likely to play out.

There are a variety of clever way to get something by making tax law more complicated. In general, I think we aren't skeptical enough of increased bureaucracy of the tax law and as a result our tax laws are way too complicated.

Whenever one advocates a way to make tax law even more complicated, I think it's important to be explicit about the cost of the increase in tax law complexity. 

Having with Cerebrolysin and BPC-157 the two top-rated peptides to be bogus, does suggest that the whole field is untrustworthy. It also makes me more skeptical about self-reporting.

That's not a good data point. If you want to provide anecdotal data, it would be good to provide more of the observations. How long did he have a shoulder issue before taking BPC-157? How fast did it get away afterward?

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