All of CitizenTen's Comments + Replies
I notice that you cite Freedom House, and Richard Hanania goes into why that NGO in particular is pretty institutionally captured and a biased source. Citing Freedom house is akin to circular reasoning or is too close for comfort with regards to the question of "Democracy". (link) Also, for better or worse every institution of the US is very liberal, including the government (link) so it's hard to imagine how in any real sense the US could become an actual right wing dictatorship.
Furthermore,"The Dictator's Handbook" ...
2France had a military coup in 1958 followed by 6 months of dictatorship. What threshold had France not passed in 1958 to not count as a full democracy? Does the Dictator's Handbook actually say this?
The relevant section of The Dictator's Handbook is the following
...Given the complexity of the trade-off between declining private rewards and increased societal rewards, it is useful to look at a simple graphical illustration, which, although based on specific numbers, reinforces the relationships highlighted throughout this book. Imagine a country of 100 people that initially has a government with two people in the winning coalition. With so few essentials and so many interchangeables, taxes will be high, people won’t work very hard, productivity will be lo
Was extremely enjoyable. Any plans for more?
Huh. I found your forecasting newsletter via LessWrong, and then subscribed to the substack's RSS feed? Which probably made me less likely to open it/see it in LessWrong? Dunno. Maybe your LessWrong traffic moved to substack? (sample size=1)
Yeah. Why I said "generally." Obviously if you emulate Stalin bad things will happen. Slightly off topic but I'd say those leader's weren't "unconstrained" and revealed something about human nature, but were constrained as any ruler and had to follow the Dictator's Handbook to stay in power.
Move to New Hampshire. Join the Free State Project. I'm only slightly kidding. For national politics, a huge amount of people dedicate ginormous amounts of attention too it and because of that there's not much slack for an individual person to affect much. Local politics on the other hand, people barely care about. Pull the rope sideways and all that. (https://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/03/tug-sideways.html) Apparently, something like 3000 libertarians have been able to accomplish all this: https://twitter.com/Fr...
Silly question warning.
You think that when an AI performs a bad action, (say remove the diamond) the AI has to have knowledge that the diamond is in fact no longer there. Even when the camera shows the diamond is (falsely) there and the human confirms that the diamond is there.
You call this ELK
You want the human to have access to this knowledge, as this is useful to choosing decisions that the human wants.
This is hard. So you have people propose how to do this.
And then people try to explain why that strategy wouldn't wo...
Continuing with the pattern, our next meetup would be Saturday, Nov 13. @Connor /CitizenTen won't be able to make it, so Zach offered to help coordinate. We'll meet at the same place as last time: Bird Park (here, at least initially: https://what3words.com/judge.salad.older) and the same time: 1pm PT.
Separately, Zach volunteered to help put together a small activity to try to encourage interesting conversations. We can pilot it at this next meetup, if there's interest. (Like any pilot, we can bail on it if it doesn't seem to be working.) Elevator pit...
Hmmm... It seems that someone has thought of doing the exact same thing? Though considering the digging I had to go to find it, it should be more prominent.
https://wiki.lesswrong.com/images/c/ca/How_to_Run_a_Successful_Less_Wrong_Meetup_Group.pdf
On the having a shoulder Duncan, I explicitly tried to do this upon listening to you being interviewed by Spencer Greenberg. Sadly, digital Duncan doesn't exist in large enough quantities to emulated. So for those of us that don't happen to live (I assume) in the Bay Area, can Duncan increase how many podcast or video's he's on? Having a shoulder Duncan sounds really useful to a large number of people you interact with and enlarging that pool purposely seems to be a pretty good idea. Food for thought?
My longest talk
My Harvard talk
My badly-in-need-of-updating website which happens to have a "writing" tab F U L L of stuff
You can find a couple others on Youtube by searching "Duncan Sabien."
Also you can get people to invite me to podcasts and I'll often say yes. =P
Thanks for the help! Now let's just hope that no one reads it as 8 pm and decides that's the time!
No. For whatever reason, on the backend it says 1:00 pm. It just says GMT and either you can't change that, or I haven't found out how. (So it's at 1 pm, a more sane time )
Had an awesome meetup. If anyone wanted to meet but just didn't get the chance, you're welcome to join the newly minted discord server: https://discord.gg/4A4qHh52Ep
Yeah. See other replies.
Host was transferred to me. Bird park and same time, yadda, yadda. Nothing should change. See you there!
All set. I got transferred to host. Nothing should change. Though tbh, it shouldn't matter much. It's mainly just a shelling point. I'm sure even if Jessie did nothing someone would show up. But yeah. See you there!
Hey! Connor here. I’ll be willing to host if you really can’t. Just send me all the “host” information I should know about and thing such as that. Mainly just private message me and we’ll go from there. (either through less wrong or connordpitts@gmail.com) Cheers!
Could you please post this on Fanfiction.net, AO3, or cross-posted to r/rational or r/hpmor? I'm really enjoying this story but its hard to get notified when you post a new update. Also, this is great and deserves more eyeballs on it.
Short of "a foreign power or going bankrupt." Germany was forced to pay for all damages that occurred during WW1. They were pretty bankrupt as countries go. And then the great depression happened. So I think Germany counts as democratic backsliding on account of "going bankrupt." And it doesn't claim all democracies. Just democracies that reach a large enough numbers of keys.