Hello all -
My name is Colin, and I am a long time lurker / RSS reader. Thanks for posting this welcome message, as it gave me motivation to finally get registered.
I stumbled onto LW from Eliezer Yudkowsky's "An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem", which I found when trying to explain to my mother what I was up to in graduate school, and why I was so excited about it. I have been interested in science and epistemology for as long as I can remember, so finding that there are principled ways to reason about uncertainty was pretty amazing to m...
I think I can do this! I read "The Age of Spiritual Machines" when it came out, and remember marking in the margins about whether or not I agreed with each. I was in high school at the time, and think I left the book at home when I left for college. I will see if it is still there.
Though I also agree with the comment from handofixue that making the predictions is much harder than judging them.