LESSWRONG
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All of codyz's Comments + Replies

Another UFO Bet
codyz10

Charlie and I have made the bet. I sent $1000 on 11/18/24 against his $50,000. Happy betting!

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2Charlie Steiner
The bet is indeed on. See you back here in 2029 :)
Another UFO Bet
codyz10

Yep, these are good points. Appreciate you engaging in such good faith. Would still like to bet if you're down.

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3Charlie Steiner
Ok, I'm agreeing in principle to make the same bet as with RatsWrongAboutUAP. ("I commit to paying up if I agree there's a >0.4 probability something non-mundane happened in a UFO/UAP case, or if there's overwhelming consensus to that effect and my probability is >0.1.")
Another UFO Bet
codyz10

That's true in any scenario, though. For all of life really. The ratio of likelihood of loopholes costing you money versus losing the best costing you money doesn't matter, as long as their absolute values are both low. And shoring up ambiguous language in the bet is how you make the former low. 

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Another UFO Bet
codyz30

I also partook in some betting last time, but I'd like to do more. I've done more research on this over the last year and built more conviction that this is the right play, that's really all that's changed. Would you be down to bet again?

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3Charlie Steiner
Probably? But I'll feel bad if I don't try to talk you out of this first. * It's true that alien sightings, videos of UFOs, etc. are slowly accumulating evidence for alien visitors, even if each item has reasonable mundane excuses (e.g. 'the mysterious shape on the infrared footage was probably just a distant plane or missile' or 'the eyewitness probably lost track of time but has doubled-down on being confident they didn't'). However, all the time that passes without yet-stronger evidence for aliens is evidence against alien visitors. * You could imagine aliens landing in the middle of the Superbowl, or sending us each a messenger drone, or the US government sending alien biological material to 50 different labs composed of hundreds of individual researchers, who hold seminars on what they're doing that you can watch on youtube. Every year nothing like this happens puts additional restrictions on alien-visitor hypotheses, which I think outweigh the slow trickle of evidence from very-hard-to-verify encounters. Relative to our informational state in the year 2000, alien visitors actually seem less likely to me. * Imagine someone making a 5-year bet on whether we'd have publicly-replicable evidence of alien visitors, every 5 years since the 1947 Roswell news story. Like, really imagine losing this bet 15 times in a row. Even conditional on the aliens being out there, clearly there's a pretty good process keeping the truth from getting out, and you should be getting more and more confident that this process won't break down in the next 5 years. * Even if we're in a simulation, there is no particular reason for the simulators to be behind UAP. * Like, suppose you're running an ancestor simulation of Earth. Maybe you're a historian interested in researching our response to perturbations to the timeline that you think really could have happened, or maybe you're trying to recreate a specific person to pull out of the simulation, or you're self-inserting to have
Another UFO Bet
codyz10

Sure, I hear you there. Is there a way I could reword or clarify that would assuage that concern?

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2Jiro
No, because I have no way to improve my ability to see loopholes and flaws, so there's always going to be residual uncertainty that can't be reduced. Risk aversion does the rest.
What TMS is like
codyz40

My sister tried TMS and said it made her ears ring. Did you experience that?

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2Arepo
Did the ringing go away over time, or was it permanent?
3Sable
I didn't, but I'm not surprised your sister had that experience. It's a loud, repetitive noise going off next to your ear. My clinic offered me earplugs, which I didn't need, but perhaps your sister could have used?
UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
codyz10

Codyz bets Algon according to the terms of this post with 150:1 odds. 

Cody bets $120 USD that UFOs are prosaic against Ali's $18,000 USD that they are not. 

Cody sent the $120 USD today, 8/22/23, via Paypal. Ali to confirm receipt below. 

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2Algon
Codyz has sent me the funds and I agree to the terms of this bet. 
UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
codyz10

Hi Algon. I'm interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP's side of the bet, if you'd like to bet more. I'll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you're interested. 

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UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
codyz10

Hi Ted. I'm interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP's side of the bet, if you'd like to bet more. I'll also happy to give you the same odds as you just specified. DM me if you're interested. 

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UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
codyz10

Carl, I'm interested in also taking taking RatsWrongAboutUAP's side of the bet, if you'd like to bet more. I'll also happy to give you better odds than 150:1. DM me if you're interested. 

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UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
codyz10

I'll take OP's side of this bet with you if you're still interested. 

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1frontier64
I ended up betting with Rats at 100:1 odds for only $20,000 of my own dollars. If you're still interested in these odds we can set something up.
UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up
codyz10

I will also take this bet, on the side of /u/RatsWrongAboutUAP with exactly the same terms, with anyone who wants. I will pay you now, you pay me 150:1 if UFO are supernatural within the next 5 years. 

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