Kurzweil predicted good machine language by 2004/2005 on NPR in 1999. This is close (I predicted by 2006 back in 1996 by just throwing ten years of computational power on top of what I saw that the internet could do) If you look at MT for many languages, he was a few years off - yet the vast majority thought 25 years or never. I think these predictions will look good by 2011 or 2012, and that isn't so far off since he made them in 1999.
Same for a possible luddite movement. So far, top social scientists are almost completely ignoring technological change a... (read more)
Kurzweil predicted good machine language by 2004/2005 on NPR in 1999. This is close (I predicted by 2006 back in 1996 by just throwing ten years of computational power on top of what I saw that the internet could do) If you look at MT for many languages, he was a few years off - yet the vast majority thought 25 years or never. I think these predictions will look good by 2011 or 2012, and that isn't so far off since he made them in 1999.
Same for a possible luddite movement. So far, top social scientists are almost completely ignoring technological change a... (read more)