I am (sincerely!) glad that this is obvious to other people too and that they are talking about it already!

I mean, the literal best way to incentivize @Ricki Heicklen and me to do this again for LessOnline and Manifest 2025 is to create a prediction market on it, so I encourage you to do that

One point that maybe someone's made, but I haven't run across recently:  if you want to turn AI development into a Manhattan Project, you will by-default face some real delays from the reorganization of private efforts into one big national effort.  In a close race, you might actually see pressures not to do so, because you don't want to give up 6 months to a year on reorg drama -- so in some possible worlds, the Project is actually a deceleration move in the short term, even if it accelerates in the long term!

Ooh, interesting, thank you!

Incidentally, spurred by @Mo Putera's posting of Vernor Vinge's A Fire Upon The Deep annotations, I want to remind folks that Vinge's Rainbows End is very good and doesn't get enough attention, and will give you a less-incorrect understanding of how national security people think.  

Oh, fair enough then, I trust your visibility into this.  Nonetheless one Should Can Just Report Bugs

Ok, but you should leave the donation box up -- link now seems to not work?  I bet there would be at least several $K USD of donations from folks who didn't remember to do it in time.

I think you're missing at least one strategy here.  If we can get folks to agree that different societies can choose different combos, so long as they don't infringe on some subset of rights to protect other societies, then you could have different societies expand out into various pieces of the future in different ways.  (Yes, I understand that's a big if, but it reduces the urgency/crux nature of value agreement). 

Note that the production function of the 10x really matters.  If it's "yeah, we get to net-10x if we have all our staff working alongside it," it's much more detectable than, "well, if we only let like 5 carefully-vetted staff in a SCIF know about it, we only get to 8.5x speedup".  

(It's hard to prove that the results are from the speedup instead of just, like, "One day, Dario woke up from a dream with The Next Architecture in his head")