You're right, this is not a morality-specific phenomenon. I think there's a general formulation of this that just has to do with signaling, though I haven't fully worked out the idea yet.

For example, if in a given interaction it's important for your interlocutor to believe that you're a human and not a bot, and you have something to lose if they are skeptical of your humanity, then there's lots of negative externalities that come from the Internet being filled with indistinguishable-from-human chatbots, irrespective its morality.

Since you marked as a crux the fragment "absent acceleration they are likely to die some time over the next 40ish years" I wanted to share two possibly relevant Metaculus questions. Both of these seem to suggest numbers longer than your estimates (and these are presumably inclusive of the potential impacts of AGI/TAI and ASI, so these don't have the "absent acceleration" caveat).

OK, agreed that this depends on your views of whether cryonics will work in your lifetime, and of "baseline" AGI/ASI timelines absent your finger on the scale. As you noted, it also depends on the delta between p(doom while accelerating) and baseline p(doom).

I'm guessing there's a decent number of people who think current (and near future) cryonics don't work, and that ASI is further away than 3-7 years (to use your range). Certainly the world mostly isn't behaving as if it believed ASI was 3-7 years away, which might be a total failure of people acting on their beliefs, or it may just reflect that their beliefs are for further out numbers.

Simple math suggests that anybody who is selfish should be very supportive of acceleration towards ASI even for high values of p(doom).

Suppose somebody over the age of 50 thinks that p(doom) is on the order of 50%, and that they are totally selfish. It seems rational for them to support acceleration, since absent acceleration they are likely to die some time over the next 40ish years (since it's improbable we'll have life extension tech in time) but if we successfully accelerate to ASI, there's a 1-p(doom) shot at an abundant and happy eternity.

Possibly some form of this extends beyond total selfishness.

So, if your ideas have potential important upside, and no obvious large downside, please share them.

What would be some examples of obviously large downside? Something that comes to mind is anything that tips the current scales in a bad way, like some novel research result that directs researchers to more rapid capabilities increase without a commensurate increase in alignemnt. Anything else?

Immorality has negative externalities which are diffuse, and hard to count, but quite possibly worse than its direct effects.

Take the example of Alice lying to Bob about something, to her benefit and his detriment. I will call the effects of the lie on Alice and Bob direct, and the effects on everybody else externalities. Concretely, the negative externalities here are that Bob is, on the margin, going to trust others in the future less for having been lied to by Alice than he would if Alice has been truthful. So in all of Bob's future interactions, his truthful counterparties will have to work extra hard to prove that they are truthful, and maybe in some cases there are potentially beneficial deals that simply won't occur due to Bob's suspicions and his trying to avoid being betrayed. 

This extra work that Bob's future counterparties have to put in, as well as the lost value from missed deals, add up to a meaningful cost. This may extend beyond Bob, since everyone else who finds out that Bob was lied to by Alice will update their priors in the same direction as Bob, creating second order costs. What's more, since everyone now thinks their counterparties suspect them of lying (marginally more), the reputational cost of doing so drops (because they already feel like they're considered to be partially liars, so the cost of confirming that is less than if they felt they were seen as totally truthful) and as a result everyone might actually be more likely to lie.

So there's a cost of deteriorating social trust, of p*ssing in the pool of social commons.

One consequence that seems to flow from this, and which I personally find morally counter-intuitive, and don't actually believe, but cannot logically dismiss, is that if you're going to lie you have a moral obligation to not get found out. This way, the damage of your lie is at least limited to its direct effects.

Agreed that ultimately everything is reverse-engineered, because we don't live in a vacuum. However, I feel like there's a meaningful distinction between:
1. let me reverse engineer the principles that best describe our moral intuition, and let me allow parsimonious principles to make me think twice about the moral contradictions that our actual behavior often implies, and perhaps even allow my behavior to change as a result
2. let me concoct a set of rules and exceptions that will justify the particular outcome I want, which is often the one that best suits me

For example, consider the contrast between "we should always strive to treat others fairly" and "we should treat others fairly when they are more powerful than us, however if they are weaker let us then do to them whatever is in our best interest whether or not it is unfair, while at the same time paying lip service to fairness in hopes that we cajole those more powerful than us into treating us fairly". I find the former a less corrupted piece of moral logic than the latter even though the latter arguably describes actual behavior fairly well. The former compresses more neatly, which isn't a coincidence.

There's something of a [bias-variance tradeoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias%E2%80%93variance_tradeoff) here. The smaller the moral model, the less expressive it can be (so the more nuance it misses), but the more helpful it will be on future, out-of-distribution questions. 

The more complex the encoding of a system (e.g. of ethics) is, the more likely it is that it's reverse-engineered in some way. Complexity is a marker of someone working backwards to encapsulate messy object-level judgment into principles. Conversely, a system that flows outward from principles to objects will be neatly packed in its meta-level form.

In linear algebra terms, as long as the space of principles has fewer dimensions than the space of objects, we expect principled systems / rules to have a low-rank representation, with a dimensionality approaching that of the space of principles and far below that of the space of objects.

As a corrolary, perhaps we are justified in being more suspicious of complex systems over simple ones, since they come with a higher risk that the systems are "insincere", in the sense that they were deliberately created with the purpose of justifying a particular outcome rather than being genuine and principled.

This rhymes with Occam's razor, and also with some AI safety approaches which planned to explore whether dishonesty is more computationally costly than honesty.

Does this mean that meta-level systems are memetically superior, since their informational payloads are smaller? The success of Abrahamic religions (which mostly compress neatly into 10-12 commandments) might agree with this.

What's the cost of keeping stuff stuff around vs discarding it and buying it back again?

When you have some infrequently-used items, you have to decide between keeping them around (default, typically) or discarding them and buying them again later when you need them.

If you keep them around, you clearly lose use of some of your space. Suppose you keep these in your house / apartment. The cost of keeping them around is then proportional to the amount of either surface area or volume they take up. Volume is the appropriate measure to use especially if you have dedicated storage space (like closets) and the items permit packing / stacking. Otherwise, surface area is a more appropriate measure, since having some item on a table kind of prevents you from using the space above that table. The motivation for assigning cost like this is simple: you could (in theory) give up the items that take up a certain size, live a house that is smaller by exactly that amound, and save on the rent differential.

The main levers are:

• the only maybe non-obvious one is whether you think 2d or 3d the fair measure. 3d gives you a lot more space (since items are not cubic, and they typically take up space on one of their long sides, so they take up a higher fraction of surface area than volume). In my experince it's hard to stack too many things while still retaining access to them so I weigh the 2d cost more.
• cost (per sqft) of real estate in your area
• how expensive the item is
• how long before you expect to need the item again

There's some nuance here like perhaps having an item laying around has higher cost than just the space it takes up because it contributes to an unpleasant sense of clutter. On the other hand, having the item "at the ready" is perhaps worth an immediacy premium on top of the alternative scenario of having to order and wait for it when the need arises. We are also ignoring that when you discard and rebuy, you end up with a brand new item, and potentially in some cases you can either gift or sell your old item, which yields some value to yourself and/or others. I think on net these nuances nudge in the direction of "discard and rebuy" vs what the math itself suggests.

I made a spreadsheet to do the math for some examples here, so far it seems like for some typical items I checked (such as a ball or balloon pump) you should sell and rebuy. For very expensive items that pack away easily (like a snowboard) you probably want to hang onto them.

The spreadsheet is here, feel free to edit it (I saved a copy) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oz7FcAKIlbCJJaBo8XAmr3BqSYd_uoNTlgCCSV4y4j0/edit?usp=sharing

This raises the question of what it means to want to do something, and who exactly (or which cognitive system) is doing the wanting.

Of course I do want to keep watching YT, but I also recognize there's a cost to it. So on some level, weighing the pros and cons, I (or at least an earlier version of me) sincerely do want to go to bed by 10:30pm. But, in the moment, the tradeoffs look different from how they appeared from further away, and I make (or, default into) a different decision.

An interesting hypothetical here is whether I'd stay up longer when play time starts at 11:30pm than when play time starts at, say, 10:15pm (if bedtime is 10:30pm). The wanting to play, and the temptation to ignore the cost, might be similar in both scenarios. But this sunk cost / binary outcome fallacy would suggest that I'll (marginally) blow further past my deadline in the former situation than in the latter.