I maybe mistaken as to the availability of the lab grown meat to the general public. apparently they are no longer on sale
https://www.wired.com/story/upside-foods-good-meat-cultivated-lab-grown-sale-stopped-singapore-california-crenn/
seem like my information are out of date
Or try to buy lab grown meat paste? I am given to understand that they are expensive but available
edit: upon further research it seem you can only get them in Singapore and with a very limitted selection [?one]
sorry for the late reply, I was travelling
here are my guesses as to why the format made me uncomfortable
- The passage is a transcript from a spoken conversation, with incomplete sentences, colloquial phrasing, and less structured presentation compared to a well-edited article. This format can be harder to process, as spoken language often lacks the clarity and conciseness of written language.
- I am neurodivergent so the text's lack of structure, lack of context, and overwhelming detail might amplify discomfort or disengagement.
- The passage reiterates concepts in slightly different words which can feel tedious or redundant.
I think another problem with the hypothetical is scope insensitive. I mean I read 10 trillions usd and feel no difference from 10 millions usd or less. And it is unclear whether 10 millions is worth 10 of my fingers, while intellectually I think 10 trillions supposed to be worth it. Hence the discomfort.
just want to express my opinion what I do not like this format, without any other implication.
specifically:
I was under the impression that the biggest cost of grid electricity is stability, that is most of the time the price charged on consumer is much [i.e. about 2x] higher than the average cost on the grid market, but occasionally the grid market price would go up astronomically [ say 1000x] for brief periods of time [say hours], and the household consumer would be insulated from that. I thought that something similar happened in Texas when a cold snap happened?
if you are confident that your battery can hold you over those crunch period I assume you can just ...
In the context of minimum wage.
I assume Abdullah has many options mean he has many job offers/alternatives to jobs.
What does it mean for Benjamin to have many options?
But wasn't bell lab the most innovative when they had monopoly? I recalled people telling me that monopoly has more money to invest in R&D.
contra evidence, I 've been trying to make a vein finder device and multiple Chinese manufacturer on alibaba have been cold to luke warm to talk to me.
been trying to find out how to export squid from australia and both the fisheries and the trandport companies have been ignoring my emails
granted I probably sound totally unprofessional in some way as I don't have much idea how the process look like.
Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite Index have been flat for decades
to put concrete number on this, the Nikkei 225 is up 41% in the last year and 78% in the last 5 years denoted in yen [which lost 30% of value to USD in the last 5 years] for better tracking, maybe the iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ] denoted in USD would be a better measuring instrument. EWJ is up 53% in the last 10 years [since 2014]
compare to QQQ tracking NASDAQ up 394% and IYY tracking Dow Jones up 170% in the same time period [since 2014].
Calculation not including dividend
Any chance we can have the instrument only version so we can do karaoke or somesuch?
I am a bit lost. What is that a reference to?
"Mu": Japanese word roughly translateable as 'absence'.
"Kami": Japanese word roughly translateable as 'god'.
"-sama": Japanese honorific for referring to someone whose status/position is much higher than yours.
But we don't care about random flu virus. We only track pandemic.
Furthermore random pandemic virus could happen in rural areas but more likely to turn into pandemic when they happen in crowded city. The more crowded the higher the pandemic chances.
How many lab similar to Wuhan in crowded cities vs how many crowded city without lab should be taken into account
How many virus strains is the lab studying? If the lab is studying 50-90% of flu virus strain it would not be strange for random flu virus that appeared in some area close to it to be studied there.
I assume no one will read this comment
assuming the problem is really intractable and the current panel process is the best available solution, then the standard solution is to put up a [scapegoat]
i.e. civil servant do not want to/ not able to do something for someone, instead of saying "this is my judgement", point to an other entity [e.g. code of conduct, boss, etc], and deflect the blame. the point is not to deflect the blame though, but to keep on functioning despite having to make unpopular decisions.
I assume that chatGPT would make an exc...
I am feeling like the dialogue has diverted from its original question, so if I may as a question.
What I am hearing is bhauth formed his opinion on extrapolating from current project, reading papers and talk to expert in the field. And while I certainly can not demand him to declare his source and present his whole chain of thought from start to finish, it certainly make it hard to verify those claims even if there is a will to verify them.
E.g. bhauth stated heat exchanger is expensive, yet I have no grounding for what that mean, is $1000/unit expens...
I am confused.
I have not read much of this rebuttal and I am not academically inclined but just reading the first part of this
https://www.francesca-v-harvard.org/data-colada-post-1
Correct me if I am wrong but Francesca is complaining that of all the duplicate and out of order ID, Data Colada is not listing all of them?
Francesca is also saying that Data Colada only picking on one variable that is suspicious and not talking about the other [?non suspicious] variable? Correct if I am wrong but isn't this is just banana? obviously Data Colada would...
research found the autism distribution to mathematically have 2-5 peaks if I am parsing the study correctly with 1 corresponding to normal population and the other peaks gathered to the right
the study I found
https://molecularautism.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13229-019-0275-3
I have not read it in depth, just skimming. [no energy to actually give it the attention]
but the relevant image seems to be this:
so it seems to me that it is bi-modal, but not in the sense of male-female bi-modal. and it can mostly be simplified as a slightly skewed...
I am not sure if it's the motivated reasoning speaking but I have a feeling that
if a distribution has 2 or more peaks it is customary to delineate in the valleys and have different words to indicate data points close to each peak [i.e. cleave reality at the joints] [e.g. autism]
If a distribution only has 1 peak, then you would have words for [right of peak] and [left of peak] and maybe [normal (stuff around the peak)] [e.g. height]
If I understand correctly Duncan is saying that the current word definition cleaving using the above rules in certain cases adheres to a false distribution leading to false beliefs.
massive shame of having, almost deliberately, chosen to obstinately screw things up for four years.
I am confused, why shame? I see nothing here to be ashamed of.
can we treat this as sunk cost fallacy? The past doesn't matter except for when it shapes the current situation. Now identify the best way forward for your current goal and take it.
If that does not make you feel better, then does hearing that other people wasted even more time make you feel any better? A lot of people wasted a lot of their life.
I wasted 10 years of my life for a mildly differ...
Yes. This is what I was looking for. It makes way more sense now. I broadly agree with everything said here. Thank you for clarifying.
By the way, I think you should consider rewriting the side note re autistic nerd. I am still a bit confused reading that.
Personally, I am strongly against this,
I got into Rationality for a purpose if it is not the best way to get me to that purpose [i.e. not winning] then Rationality should be casted down and the alternative embraced.
On the other hand, I suspect we mostly agree with our disagreement is on the definition of the word "winning"
I could have failed reading comprehension but I did not see "winning" defined anywhere in the post
Okay, I've updated I should be a bit more clear on which claims I'm specifically making (and not making) in this post.
First, I want to note my definition of rationality here is not new, it's basically how it was described by Eliezer in 2012, and I'm pretty confident it's what he meant when writing most of the sequences. "Eliezer said so" isn't an argument, but it looks like some people might feel like I'm shifting goalposts and changing definitions and I claim I am not doing that. From Rationality: Appreciating Cognitive Algorithms:
...The word 'rational' is p
I see, I failed at comprehension then, thank you for your replies
It seems that I have failed to communicate clearly, and for that, I apologise. I am agnostic on most of your post.
Let's go back to the original quote
Hinkley Point C is an ongoing nuclear power project in the UK, which has seen massive cost overruns and delays. But if you take prices for electricity generation in 1960, and increase them as much as concrete has, you're not far off from the current estimated cost per kwh of Hinkley Point C, or some other recent projects considered too expensive.
I understand this to mean that [plant price increase roughly in l...
ok this is not addressing my confusion, my confusion is that that particular piece of information does not distinguish between your hypothesis and many others [with one example I used].
I am not sure why nuclear power cost is so high. Maybe you are right, that nuclear energy just never had improvement since 1960 that decreased the real cost to produce electricity [though electronic component costs had gone down, although construction costs have not]. My point is that this particular piece of information does not distinguish the hypothesis.
My informati...
Hinkley Point C is an ongoing nuclear power project in the UK, which has seen massive cost overruns and delays. But if you take prices for electricity generation in 1960, and increase them as much as concrete has, you're not far off from the current estimated cost per kwh of Hinkley Point C, or some other recent projects considered too expensive.
I am sorry but this confused me, how is this section relevant?
to my understanding, you are saying that if we build an average 1960 electricity plant now [does not matter what type] then as the construction co...
so update, after consultation with a research doctor turn out I am not qualified to do it.
I need to be either a doctor, a higher ranking nurse or a nurse on research track at least.
since I am a nurse on the clinical track so I am not qualified to do the research, bummer.
people could still go to their doctor, get their blood check and give the result to me to tabulate, but it does not require me in particular.
jinx, I have applied already, not sure if I did a good job selling it though. Thanks for reminding me though.
still waiting on whether my hospital would be interested in the study.
so far community members I have spoken to said "others" should be interested, but few actually gave me a commitment, I am not pushing very hard though.
Let's not jump the gun, I'll look deeper into it once I am certain there is huge interest.
tbh the main thing I care about is whether those who self-designated as vegans are significantly more likely to be deficient compared to baseline and whether supplement help. Everything else is extra.
RE timeline: no problem, I am happy to wait until September or after, giving me even more time to look into it.
I am going to put a feeler out to see if there is any interest in the Lesswrong/EA community in Sydney, I would not go ahead unless 30 people plan to participate.
RE base rate: I can run blood tests on [say 10+] omnivores in the community, assuming Lesswrong/EA community to be homogenous in other aspects aside from the tested diet, [we do have 10-20x the autism/neurodivergent rate compared to general population]. That should establish Lesswrong/EA ...
I'll look into the actual feasibility of this.
May I get back to you in one week?
I mean if say 20 EA vegans in Sydney got blood tests and for some reason, none of them has any iron, Vit B12, Vit D deficiency [by some metric] it would be significant evidence contradicting your belief isn't it?
It would help me if you can outline a short sketch [don't spend much time on it] on what you think I am going to do [both to prevent the double illusion of transparency and a type of pre-registration].
Would a replication of your study of "in-office nutritional testing" in a different EA population [say EA Sydney, Australia] be helpful?
In the sense of knowing how many self-identified vegetarians/vegans are clinically deficient in iron, Vit B12, Vit D,... [maybe even compared to omnivores]. We can then advise people on supplementation. With maybe follow-up surveys in 3,6,12 months to see if the number actually improved and if they actually feel improvement.
I am a nurse and I can take blood so that may help. I am willing to sink 40 hours into this if...
Just something I've accidentally look into Only regarding the extraction of lithium and other rare metal from concentrated sea water.
Paradoxically, increased concentration actually WORSEN the efficacy of our current technique to extract rare metals from sea water (adsorption) which was not very efficient in the first place. Presumably from higher concentration of sodium salt. For further information you can look up extraction of uranium from desalination output.
according to wikipedia, pipeline storage of Germany is currently capable of several months
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_storage#Power_to_gas
I confess I do not know what they mean by that precisely, but I am under the impression that hydrogen storage as low pressure gas is very viable
In fact I if the pipeline can handle town gas, I don't see why both hydrogen and natural gas can not be produced at the same time, to hit the pareto efficiency. Natural gas more heat storage per volume, hydrogen better heat storage efficiency, depending on storag...
Latest results from hydrogen electrolysis research show 95% efficiency on theoretical limit converting electricity to hydrogen.
The current mass market fuel cell conversion from hydrogen to electricity is about 70% efficiency.
I am under the impression that hydrogen storage and transport for static usages are not that significantly different from natural gas. Or natural gas facilities can be converted to manage hydrogen with relatively small cost.
my personal experiences with tradies/contractor of any kind are that 9/10 of them are there to get you [by charging enormous amount of money], it is extremely costly to find reliable ones and online reviews are not of much help since the consumer is unable to distinguish between good and reasonably priced work from the chaff [or maybe the online reviews are faked in the first place].
isn't what you suggest basically just rent to buy type of bussiness?
good point, I would amend that to reducing the marginal incentive to go around poisoning water source then
I am not sure how true is this, but my friend in comsumer protection agency told me that after a particular severe weather event there were a conspiracy to raise roof repair price between most trade workers in the area by not competing on price before the agency crack down on it.
Not even sure if the crack down had any effect to be honest.
I can see the argument that this is natural price raise due to increase demand, but look at it another way it could be seen as artificial reducing supply to increase price.
one argument against price gouging that I don't see bringing up is the 2nd order effect.
I acknowledge that price gouging can have multiples benefits and act as signal and preventing price gouging would inhibit market's direct action.
However, forbiding price gouging also disincentivise agents from creating conditions that they can gouge others.
one extreme example: if I can price gouge water, I will be incentivised to go around poisoning all other water source to sell my water at a premium.
since I can not sell my water at a higher price, I am not incentivised to destroy water resource.
I agree,
tbh it surprised me how infectious the delta variant is. I just could not update hard enough even against what happened in India.
I do hope that the vaccine push is hard and fast enough, but I suppose we will see how it is going to turn out in the next 2 weeks.
this quote from NSW health is giving me hope
Across NSW, 78.1 per cent of the over-16 population has received a first dose COVID-19 vaccine, and 45.6 per cent are fully vaccinated to
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210912_00.aspx
Australian in NSW [heaviest hit region currently] here to provide singular data point.
for my personal life, 0.92 QALY for covid lockdown seems reasonable. But I am generally an introvert and tend not to go out. My friends and families are also mostly tech-literate and able to keep in touch online. I change relatively little of my habits.
It is certainly much harder to do business
The lockdown is not that strictly enforces [by my personal experience] and sounds worse on paper than it actually is. Mostly just security theater.
I was unaware of the G...
oh thanks, this looks like what I was looking for
thanks, I've forgotten that these exist. much oblige.
I was mainly inspired by jefftk series on raising his children.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoHcgTvyxdorAMquE/bets-bonds-and-kindergarteners
I do believe that he is using techniques not usually employed by other groups. [heck his post frequently got to the front page and hundreds of upvote on https://www.lesswrong.com/ so I assume it has something to do with the rationality culture]
I also believe that children's literature reflects the culture that creates it. Their value and beliefs. I am not content with just Disney culture and I am trying to find an a...
again, I mostly agree with you. however a few thing I want to submit for consideration:
-unrelated but I am mildly miffed at the comparison of me to a child with the seeming implication of lack of knowledge, power and agency [also did you just called me weak will lol?]. Although this may not be the intended effect.
-If I make take my point to the extreme, say on one side of the spectrum we have what you describe "win-win" situation on the other imagine a chip in your brain that stimulates your pleasure centre when you think of buying the product. I am sure w...
while I agree with most of what you said and in an ideal world ad should work in a win-win manner as you described, I have cut out as many ads from my life as possible since they are significantly net harmful in my experience.
the problem that I found, and you don't seem to address, is that ads are not just a simple showing of "I have the stuff you may want". It is usually an attempt of manipulation using primarily superstimulus or social engineer to maximize profit for the advertisers. e.g. for a car ad they show happy people living exciting lives which ha...
I will think on this
this seem like a fully general argument, any law change is going to disrupt people's long term plans,
e.g. the abolishment of slavery also disrupt people's long term plans
I suppose you can argue that the magnitude is too big, put then I would assume that some period of phasing in would help.
you can argue that the short term cost is more than the long term gain but I am not convinced.
by y... (read more)