All of divia's Comments + Replies

divia10

Seems like you want me to acknowledge that various people, including on LW, have been doing pretty sophisticated stuff with game theory lately?

2Yoav Ravid
I don't "want you to acknowledge" anything. You mentioned a few things that bother you with game theory, I responded saying these things are addressed. If that's interesting/helpful, great, and if not, that's fine too.
divia10

What do you mean by "even the most basic games [...] don't tend to be turn based"?

2Yoav Ravid
That games like prisoner's dilemma, coordination games, and other basic games in game theory aren't turn based, the players makes their decisions simultaneously. The table in the link has a column for whether the game is sequential or not.
divia40

And I guess also in real-life situations the menu of options is typically really large instead of small? I don't actually know if that's central.

As much as I would like to already have a clean objection, it's probably more fruitful at this point for me to generally poke around and try to articulate whatever in the general space I have some traction on.

divia50

Related to what I said here (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2SQzLnoBnmYhPygE/divia-s-shortform?commentId=wSce6sGx9LLqQGAQ4), I also have a general beef with game theory typically being a misleading abstraction (outside of the context of certain formal games (when they are played by economists??)). I think the most common objection I've heard to game theory as a paradigm is that it's much more common for "games" to be iterated than one-off, but I think maybe my bigger complaint is that it's quite rare for stuff to be anywhere near as turn-based as the par... (read more)

6Raemon
Something that's come up for me since our last chat was (starting to) read Elinor Ostrom's Governance of the Commons, which leans very heavily into "the actual games people are actually playing have very little in common with the simplified games people use as their core metaphors." Writing a good book review of that is on my list of things to do. (Elinor's book is basically a very long, methodical rant at all the people either saying "Tragedy of the commons, therefore, Government Ownership Of Things" or "Tragedy of the commons, therefore, private property rights.")
2Dagon
For me, turn-taking isn't a problem - game theory addresses simultaneous turns as well (including the famous prisoners' dilemma).  My objection is the massive oversimplification into one-dimensional known (or known probability) payouts.  Almost every real interaction has highly-variable and diverse impact on both short-term outcome and positioning for future interactions.
2Yoav Ravid
Iterated games are very common in game theory (especially in LW discussions), and even the most basic games (like prisoner's dilemma) don't tend to be turn based. I think you're critiquing a naive version of game theory, that would indeed deserve your critique if it was the norm, but I don't think it is. It probably has been at the start, but now I think more realistic assumptions are the norm - like iteration, reputation, mistakes, temporal discounting, diminishing returns, limited information, etc. As an example, these three posts show some of this complexity applied to prisoner's dilemma 
4divia
And I guess also in real-life situations the menu of options is typically really large instead of small? I don't actually know if that's central. As much as I would like to already have a clean objection, it's probably more fruitful at this point for me to generally poke around and try to articulate whatever in the general space I have some traction on.
divia10

Yeah, in some basic sense I totally agree with you, and also I still get the sense that the vectors of coordination and alignment are fundamental missing the point (again, in a way that leadership and culture aren't really).

divia50

cached-ish thoughts fleshing out further my allergy to the stag hunt framing

  • something about how ime irl it's a yellow flag when I'm confident about wanting a particular social outcome before I have it??? this doesn't seem quite right, and I think I have a more true longer version but not a more true short version
  • there's something about the whole "coordination problem" frame that I react to as though there's an error already baked in, and I notably don't have this reaction to people talking about there being a failure of leadership, and moooostly don't have it when people talk about "cultural problems'
3Dagon
I think my worry with the framing is the unexamined implication that it's ONLY a coordination problem.  In fact, many times it's an alignment problem - participants expect different payouts/rewards than exactly 1/n of the sum.
divia10

Oh, and I think I do have disagreements (or something?) with the longer form stuff people have written about stag hunts/cooperation, but they are some combination of "less of a disagreement" and "harder to pinpoint", which interests me as a phenomenon in and of itself.

divia50

Also seems me worth saying that insofar as I think something like this would improve lw conversations, I don't think there's anything stopping me from "just" unilaterally doing more of it. Maybe I would do that if I commented on lw? So far I have barely ever commented, so I wouldn't say I have an excellent predictive model of that. I seem to do it at least some when I write on social media in general.

divia50

re: the empathy thing, part of my context is that I've read a lot of communication books over the years, and it seems fair to me to say that the single most common/most important recommendation for improving discussions that are difficult is to spend more time reflecting what people have already said in various ways. And, afaict, when I've done this more, I've gotten dramatically better outcomes by my values. Still (despite having been over various versions of this is my head a bajillion times) I notice I'm confused about something in this space. (I also think this point has a lot to do with why I mostly haven't liked written conversations... not in a very articulate way though.)

5divia
Also seems me worth saying that insofar as I think something like this would improve lw conversations, I don't think there's anything stopping me from "just" unilaterally doing more of it. Maybe I would do that if I commented on lw? So far I have barely ever commented, so I wouldn't say I have an excellent predictive model of that. I seem to do it at least some when I write on social media in general.
divia30

I have talked to Ray about my objection about the stag hunt framing multiple times, and iirc I haven't had this conversation with Duncan. Often talking to people about what I think is enough that I mostly let go of it and stop thinking about it, but so far it's still on my mind.

5divia
cached-ish thoughts fleshing out further my allergy to the stag hunt framing * something about how ime irl it's a yellow flag when I'm confident about wanting a particular social outcome before I have it??? this doesn't seem quite right, and I think I have a more true longer version but not a more true short version * there's something about the whole "coordination problem" frame that I react to as though there's an error already baked in, and I notably don't have this reaction to people talking about there being a failure of leadership, and moooostly don't have it when people talk about "cultural problems'
1divia
Oh, and I think I do have disagreements (or something?) with the longer form stuff people have written about stag hunts/cooperation, but they are some combination of "less of a disagreement" and "harder to pinpoint", which interests me as a phenomenon in and of itself.
divia70

Some things that have been on my mind lately:

  • why I am viscerally bothered by the stag hunt metaphor (tldr; afaict actually deciding what to hunt happens by talking to people, not by making decisions in private)
  • how I have some pretty strong reaction I'd ideally like to unpack more along the lines of "the thing lw is missing according to me is empathy/paraphrasing"
  • why I'm usually not really that into written communication (though over the past few years I've tweeted a decent amount, so that's an interesting exception or something)
  • ETA: oh, and I'm still not o
... (read more)
5divia
re: the empathy thing, part of my context is that I've read a lot of communication books over the years, and it seems fair to me to say that the single most common/most important recommendation for improving discussions that are difficult is to spend more time reflecting what people have already said in various ways. And, afaict, when I've done this more, I've gotten dramatically better outcomes by my values. Still (despite having been over various versions of this is my head a bajillion times) I notice I'm confused about something in this space. (I also think this point has a lot to do with why I mostly haven't liked written conversations... not in a very articulate way though.)
3divia
I have talked to Ray about my objection about the stag hunt framing multiple times, and iirc I haven't had this conversation with Duncan. Often talking to people about what I think is enough that I mostly let go of it and stop thinking about it, but so far it's still on my mind.
divia10

I have never written anything on my short form and don't totally understand the interface, so I am starting with this to see how it works

3Dagon
seems to be working :)  
divia00

Did you consider the possibility that I liked paleo food better and wanted it at the meetup for that reason :-).

2moshez
I guess the level of encouragement for paleo-food seemed to be more insistent than would be typical for a personal preference. Also, possibly it's a case of a Typical Mind Fallacy, but no, it's hard for me to consider the possibility that people actually like paleo food. But thanks for explaining :) [My usual rule when telling people to bring food is: "Bring something you like. This way everybody has at least one thing they like."]
divia00

There are no strict rules at all :-). I strongly encourage that food brought to share with the group be paleo-friendly, but you can do whatever, and certainly you can eat whatever you want yourself.

8moshez
OK, I was feeling very conflicted on this, until I realized this might just be an inferential distance thing. I tried to clarify my confusion....and realized: I am not sure why the encouragement to bring paleo-diet exists. Do you assume most people attending would keep to paleo-diet? (That's not my model, but perhaps I'm wrong) Do you want to encourage people to try paleo-diet? If so, is it because you assume most people haven't tried it, and would subscribe if they tried it? I'm sorry to be a pain about this...but I think we should be, at the very least, able to discuss snacks at a less wrong meet-up in a rational way :)
divia30

I eat vegetarian paleo myself, so I can think of stuff. I eat lots of cheese, butter, coconut oil, eggs, vegetables, and tubers. I also don't avoid soaked and fermented rice and legumes. I also approve of very dark chocolate.

1moshez
Hrm, apparently you do have concrete suggestions, that convinced me that I wouldn't be able to survive on paleo-diet for 12 hours :( How strict are the paleo-friendly rules? If they're really strict, I can just grab something to eat before coming, otherwise, I'll bring something nice and tasty...
divia20

Bring paleo-friendly vegetarian food :-).

4moshez
Is that a euphemism for "lettuce"? Or do you have concrete suggestions? [I must admit that I have been completely uninterested in the paleo-diet, so I have not researched how it can be made vegetarian friendly. My usual food to bring to potlucks is along the lines of veggie chow mein, which I understand is not paleo-friendly...]
divia30

These are the only lesswrong cards I've made other than what's in the Less Wrong Sequences deck, but I have tons of other Anki decks. If you're interested in hearing about them, message me.

divia90

I made an Anki deck of this post with the key 89ff552e6e8086a6.

0SoerenMind
Does anyone know how to search for Anki decks by their key? I was thinking the number at the end of a link (e.g. ankiweb.net/shared/info/1458237580) would work, but it doesn't contain letters.
2lukeprog
Do all your Anki decks go into the 'Less Wrong Sequences' deck, or are there a bunch of them all over the place? If the latter, is there a full list of your decks somewhere?
divia00

Having the source post in a separate field seems like a really good idea, and it never crossed my mind before, so thanks! It would be enough work that I'd probably write some script to do it instead of doing it by hand, but it might be worth it to me to do so at some point.

0[anonymous]
You can do it by exporting the deck to csv, then using a emacs macro to automate the transition.
divia10

I don't have AnkiDroid, so I'm not sure if there's a way to search the shared decks within it, but if not I bet it would work to get the desktop version, sync it with an online account, and then sync AnkiDroid with the online account.

1Dorikka
Confirmed. (Specific data point was the NVC deck, but I am confident that it generalizes.)
divia20

I've used spaced repetition to memorize checklists for things for me to do in certain situations and found it to be quite useful. Some of my thinking on this was inspired by The Checklist Manifesto, which I read recently. I'm still figuring out how to make my system work better and have it cover more situations, but an example of one checklist that I've gotten a bit of mileage out of is the one I've made for accessing my inner anticipation controller.

divia00

Yeah, I've changed a few that I've noticed myself since I posted them, but if you want to email me with other changes I'd love that.

0gwern
I'm not entirely sure how to contribute them back. Best would be to work against the master copy in Anki, but how would I get the changes and communicate them back to you?
0gwern
Incidentally, any chance of a copyedit? I noticed that there were quite a few typos.
1gwern
Alright, I've uploaded it at http://mnemosyne-proj.org/content/lesswrong-mysterious-answers-mysterious-questions-sequence
0beaves
I like it. So that was you at the London meetup then I take it? I'm installing the software now. Portability/open-ness is key - any kind of long-term thing must have data that's easily exportable, right? And my current computer setup is really just chaff in the breeze, totally short-term.
divia00

I don't see a way to export to xml, but if you want a tab delimited text file I could send you that. Interested?

0gwern
Mnemosyne's XML is nicer (and I'm surprised Anki can't export as XML, it used to play nice with Mnemosyne) since it lets one specify metadata like grades, hardness, and category. But tab-delimited would work, yes.
1xamdam
Now, even more very awesome ;)
divia10

Hmm. I'm interested, but I'm not exactly sure what you're envisioning. Could you elaborate? I have another deck with SAT grammar (because I'm an SAT tutor) and I have cards that ask me to come up with example sentences for common grammar mistakes. I have specific answers on the back of the cards, but I'll mark them correct if I come up with anything that correctly demonstrates the principle. So maybe something analogous to that?

1John_Maxwell
You could do that, or for a greater challenge you could mark the card as incorrect if you came up with anything but a new and original application.
divia50

I think your concern is a valid one, but that there's also a solution. I think reviewing the sequences with the mindset of trying to guess a password would merely reinforce the misguided idea of verbal behavior having inherent truth value. And that's why I wouldn't even really use the word "memorization" to describe what I'm doing.

I think the way to "learn" the sequences is to practice applying the concepts all the time, which is more easily accomplished if you're primed to have them pop into your mind at the right moment. And my experience has been that SRS has helped enable that for me.

divia20

It doesn't allow you to review all your decks simultaneously, but you can merge decks by importing one deck into another. http://ichi2.net/anki/wiki/FrequentlyAskedQuestions#How_can_I_merge_or_split_decks.3F

divia00

I've wanted to try incremental reading myself, but not enough to install Windows on my Mac. I'm glad to hear you find it useful though--that makes me more likely to make a greater effort to experiment with it at some point in the future.

divia40

I recently used similar reasoning during an episode of sleep paralysis about a week ago. My sleep paralysis episodes are always very similar: I hear someone calling out to me from the next room, but I can't respond because I'm paralyzed. I have them often enough that I usually realize what's going on. In this one, I heard my brother (who had been visiting earlier in the day, but who doesn't live with me) calling out to me from the other room. I knew I was experiencing sleep paralysis, but at first, I tried desperately to wake myself up to go answer him... (read more)

4jimmy
That reminds me of one of those "You gotta see this!" type of shows where a motorcycle racer crashed at about 110mph and did a few flips in the air before coming down. In the interview, he said "I just remember thinking 'I hate these kind of dreams'". I had a personal experience that was very scary during which I was questioning whether it was really happening or if I was just dreaming. I kept on doing what needed to be done (and never really believed it wasn't happening), and the guy on (err.. off, I guess) the motorcycle didn't really have a chance to do anything, but it seems worth mentioning that you need to be pretty darn sure that you're dreaming before you decide to do something else.
divia220

I'll also say that insofar as women think that PUA "mind-hacking" techniques are black-hat subversions of female rationality, the most obvious solution I see is disseminating more information about them. Knowledge of these techniques would allow women to at least attempt to "patch" themselves, assuming they are open to the idea that they actually work.

For example, say I learn about negs. I can either think, "Oh good, it's fun to be attracted to guys, so I hope guys neg me effectively," or "I think it is immoral to neg... (read more)

divia220

Some women aren't. I know because I'm one of them. I've already commented on this subject, and my views haven't changed much since then.

While I'm open to the idea that discussing PUA on LW is a net loss, selfishly I want the discussion to stay because I find it fascinating. Since I know it works on me, learning about it helps me understand myself better and make more informed choices.

7orange
Personally, I think controversy is more interesting than not. The internet keeps proving this over and over again. So if you want to attract more females, KEEP TALKING ABOUT THEM. Getting offended is one way to get started on a rationalist path because it evokes an emotion. It evokes an inner-conflict. Which can result to greater self-understanding. Offending people is fine. Since it reflects more badly on the offensive person than on the offended person. It might even reflect badly on this community as a whole, but hey, if it gets people to start thinking, what's so bad? If it gets women to understand something about themselves? What's so bad? However I would try to balance it out by ALSO examining men in such a way. There's a lot of literature on PUA, and it is actively discussed here. Why not just find proven methods for attracting men and discuss them also? In a rationalist fashion, of course. If it offends the men on the site, then... all the better. Men need a wake-up call, too.
divia60

Well, some people do write about relationship game, but it's certainly the minority of the material. And some of what I have read I find either a mixed bag or decidedly unappealing.

divia470

Just to provide a different female perspective, I'd heard about the seduction community a while back, and a few months ago decided to find out more about it. I read some (admittedly not all) of The Game, watched The Pickup Artist, and read a very substantial amount of material online, including most of the archives of a few blogs, my favorite of which was The Sinns of Attraction.

I take almost no issue with the seduction community, in fact my response is closer to the opposite. Insofar as the techniques advocated work, and I have every reason to believe... (read more)

9lukeprog
Yes. This is a point I emphasize quickly when discussing pickup with people. Do girls really want to keep being approached by so many men with creepy body language? I think not.

To provide yet another different male perspective:

Some part of the success caused by "game" can no doubt be explained as a rationally justifiable taking-into-account of genuinely increased excitingness/attractiveness, but some other part of the extra success is no doubt better explained as a direct influence on the decision mechanism, not on the thing that it makes decisions about. "Game" that's mostly about the former strikes me as being a good thing for the reasons divia mentions; "game" that's mostly about the latter strik... (read more)

badger120

I've thought similar things. As a married man, I've also wondered whether certain aspects of the seduction community could be repurposed to maintain a high level of attraction within a long-term relationship. The misogyny of some PUAs is very troubling like you note, though.

divia180

Your mention of the difficulty of men writing realistic fictional female characters reminds me very much of a passage from Virginia Woolfe's A Room of One's Own that is the most insightful exploration of the issue I have ever read:

'Chloe liked Olivia,' I read. And then it struck me how immense a change was there. Chloe liked Olivia perhaps for the first time in literature. Cleopatra did not like Octavia. And how completely ANTONY AND CLEOPATRA would have been altered had she done so! As it is, I thought, letting my mind, I am afraid, wander a little from

... (read more)
gjm140

A more recent instantiation of the same idea is the Bechdel Test or Mo Movie Measure (it's named after a character called Mo in Alison Bechdel's comic strip Dykes to Watch Out For), which a movie passes if it

1. has at least two women in it
2. who talk to one another
3. about something other than a man.

Depressingly few movies pass this test. Of course it can be applied to things other than movies.

divia40

While it's ultimately true that individuals come to LW, not groups, I'm far more likely to follow and especially to comment on blogs that my friends also read. For me, one primary way I get really interested in subjects and motivated to understand them well is by talking about them to my friends in real life. And most of my friends are girls.

8Psy-Kosh
hrm... actually, I'm reminded of something. Several years back, someone designed these simulations that basically ran an algorithm like "assume people don't mind being around people that are different, so long as at least some small fraction of their nearest neighbors are also like themselves.", and basically simulated people moving around to fulfil those criteria. The simulation would consistently produce highly segregated results. Aha! here's a site with applets that run such simulations: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~segregation/segregation-simulator.html
divia160

Not entirely sure, though I believe I did post a couple of comments to Overcoming Bias a while back. I used to comment on reddit and comment semi-regularly on Hacker News, which refutes the first explanation that I thought of, that it was a matter of my time, since clearly I do sometimes take time to comment on the internet.

The comments here are high quality, which is somewhat intimidating, and also makes things take longer, since I want to think more carefully about what I say, but that would probably apply to Hacker News as well.

A possible explanati... (read more)

astray110

I'm in a similar situation - I comment (sometimes) on reddit and HNews, and have occasionally posted a few sentences to OB, but I am much less likely to comment here. The high quality of the posts and comments leads me to agonize a bit overmuch about every part of a comment, and sometimes I will write, edit, and rewrite a comment before deciding to just not comment at all. I, too, often feel I would not be contributing anything original.

(I should also note in this comment that I am male.)

divia200

I am reminded of Paul Graham's explanation for the low number of female startup partners from Ideas for Startups:

I didn't realize it till I was writing this, but that may help explain why there are so few female startup founders. I read on the Internet (so it must be true) that only 1.7% of VC-backed startups are founded by women. The percentage of female hackers is small, but not that small. So why the discrepancy?

When you realize that successful startups tend to have multiple founders who were already friends, a possible explanation emerges. People's b

... (read more)
5Psy-Kosh
Huh, that minority-squared effect is interesting, but I'm not sure it need apply here. It'd be individuals coming here, right? It doesn't take a group to, well, come to LW. Or am I misunderstanding your point in some way?
9AnnaSalamon
Any idea why you haven't?