All of Donald Gislason's Comments + Replies

Given that full transparency from Chinese authorities is unlikely, assessing the probabilities is the best we can do. Fortunately, that has been done with with impressive scientific rigour by DRASTIC member Dr. Steven Quay MD, PhD in his technically detailed 193-page Bayesian analysis of 26 known facts about the outbreak:

https://zenodo.org/record/4477081#.YNAFry0ZNE4

which he explains in layman's terms in his interview with Julius Killerby (cited in my comment above).

The advantage of this approach is that it follows the scientific method: laying out clearly... (read more)

It's because there is only one single place in the genome that you really want to track: the furin cleavage site (FCS). I assumed the wrong reason for using double CGG. 

It's not to distinguish natural from lab-made viruses (although it does do that). 

It's so that you can have a test in the lab for whether the FCS you have inserted is working or not. It's so that you can "check your work". 

The unique spelling with double CGG is the only one out of the 36 possible configurations of arginine (the "R" in the "PRRA" FCS insertion) that allows you... (read more)

Richard Muller, co-author with Steven Quay of the WSJ article, states in his interview with Sky News Australia (Scientific report suggests Wuhan lab leak as origin of COVID-19, YouTube, 10 June 2021, at 5:40 mark) that CGG was the spelling of arginine "most used in the laboratory" in lab-inserted furin cleavage sites and was in fact used by Shi Zhengli at the WIV, as she reported in one of her published papers. 

But Steven Quay's mammoth 193-page Bayesian Analysis of SARS-Cov-2 Origin (https://zenodo.org/record/4477081#.YMU0-S0ZNE4) puts the number at ... (read more)

The recent article by Steven Quay & Richard Muller in the Wall Street Journal attempts to bring the issue to a head by simplifying it down to two main points: 

(1) The double CGG codons in the SARS2 furin cleavage site were deliberately designed by the 11 or 12 researchers who have created chimeric viruses as an unmistakable 'marker' for lab-made viruses so that you could always tell which future mutations evolved from a lab virus and which were naturally evolved.  SARS2 has these tell-tale double CGG codons in its furin cleavage site, ergo it... (read more)

2Steven Byrnes
I'm not remotely qualified to comment on this, but fwiw in the Mojiang Mine Theory (which says it was a lab leak, but did not involve GOF), six miners caught the virus from bats (and/or each other), and then the virus spent four months replicating within the body of one of these poor guys as he lay sick in a hospital (and then of course samples were sent to WIV and put in storage). This would explain (2) because four months in this guy's body (especially lungs) allows tons of opportunity for the virus to evolve and mutate and recombine in order to adapt to the human body, and maybe it also explains (1) either randomly or via recombination between viral and human DNA (if that makes sense?), again during those four months in this poor guy's body.
3ChristianKl
If you wanted strong tracking why would you only do it once and not a few times so it's more stable?

Re 1) the codons, according to Christian Drosten, have precedence for evolving naturally in viruses. That could be because viruses evolve much faster than e.g. animals. Source: search for 'codon' and use translate here: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/92-Coronavirus-Update-Woher-stammt-das-Virus,podcastcoronavirus322.html

The link also has a bunch of content about the evolution of furin cleavage sites, from a leading expert.

4Charlie Steiner
Do you have a cite for previous work reporting or using this sequence (something like cct cgg cgg gca) for a cleavage site in viruses? I only ended up finding and looking through one bit of prior gain of function research that's the sort of genetic engineering you're hypothesizing ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3168280/ ) but it used a totally different sequence. Better yet, someone from pre-covid-19 times talking about how they made their code include "cggcgg" as a marker.