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All of DubiousTwizzler's Comments + Replies

Meetup : Dallas, TX
DubiousTwizzler00

Sooooo it turns out that Taste of Chicago is not open on Sundays. My bad. We'll be going to Pastazios Pizza instead. Address is 5026 Addison Circle, Addison, TX 75001.

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Meetup : Dallas, TX
DubiousTwizzler00

Thanks for reminding me! I'll have a sign that says "Less Wrong".

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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
DubiousTwizzler20

Since it seems like these two explanations fit this specific piece of evidence (roughly) equally well, and we know that Quirrelmort is the entity referenced by the prophecy in canon, and that Voldemort is called the Dark Lord in both canon and hpmor, then why wouldn't Dark Lord as Death get a 'complexity penalty'?

If I'm using it wrong, please explain.

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2BT_Uytya
You are talking about prior probability. P(Dark Lord is Death|no specific background information) roughly equals to P(Eliezer changes things from canon), which isn't very large; so after updating both with a equally favorable piece of evidence "Death is Dark Lord" is still behind "Voldemort is Dark Lord". You can assign prior probabilities in various ways, and one of them is giving every hypothesis an appropriate complexity penalty (or you can just judge everything as equally likely, or give everything a simplicity penalty, or penalize every hypothesis according to how many people it affects, or...). Some ways are better than others, but: 1) Why "complexity penalty" should work in fiction, even in a rationalist fiction? 2) Why hypothesis "Voldemort is Dark Lord" is simpler than "Death is Dark Lord" in the sense of program length? One can argue that the former hypothesis points to the specific human from a pool of a 6 billion people (or 100 billion, if you want to consider every human ever lived) while the latter talks about some entity likely to be very basic from the Magic viewpoint. Hope that clears some of confusion!
Manfred150

Complexity means it requires additional things to happen even if you had no evidence.

For example, a more complex hypothesis than "Bob is a human" is "Bob is a human who lives at 123 Fake St."

Voldemort being called the dark lord is evidence, and learning about new evidence does not itself make a hypothesis more or less complex. It's just evidence.

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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
DubiousTwizzler100

Also, mysterious feeling of doom. And Quirrel can sense Harry's feelings. And their magic can't interact.

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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
DubiousTwizzler00

Wait, what? I don't remember reading this, or picking up on any hints of this. Care to explain?

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5elharo
I'm certainly not sure of this, but Quirrell certainly doesn't act like canon Riddle; and "Voldemort" doesn't even look human. He could easily be anyone. Maybe instead of Riddle killing Monroe and taking his place, Monroe killed Riddle and took his place. A smart, Slytherin Dark Lord wannabe like Quirrel would want to hide his true identity from his enemies. So far the only evidence we have that Voldemort is/was Riddle is that Dumbledore/Moody/etc. think he is. They may be wrong about this. I strongly suspect they're wrong about Voldemort's motivations, and have been since the first war began. What else are they wrong about?
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96
DubiousTwizzler40

The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches... born to those who have thrice defied him, born as the seventh month dies... And the Dark Lord shall mark him as his equal. But he shall have power the Dark Lord knows not... and either must destroy all but a remnant of the other, for those two different spirits cannot exist in the same world. - chapter 86

Oddly, I feel like each line in this prophecy could equally well point to Dark Lord as Voldemort OR Dark Lord as Death.

Although P(Dark Lord as Death) should get a complexity penalty since Vo... (read more)

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Manfred160

complexity penalty

This is a misuse of jargon.

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Four Focus Areas of Effective Altruism
DubiousTwizzler00

I'm a student interested in building a Rationality/Effective Altruism Club. Was this talk recorded? Because I would be interested in watching/reading it, if you have a YouTube link, etc.

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0Raemon
It was not recorded, but I plan to write it up soon.
2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey
DubiousTwizzler320

Just took my second survey. Been lurking a while now, this is my first comment.

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The Ethical Status of Non-human Animals
DubiousTwizzler00

Is there any relevant research on the subject of animal sentience, animal "persons", etc?

I've read quite a few arguments from different points of view, but haven't found any actual science on the subject.

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