All of edanm's Comments + Replies

edanm50

Great overview!

I can give a few words of advice on where to continue from here, if you're interested. My own background is as a software dev for many years (13 years professionally plus a few years as a kid). I'd bene involved in many different fields, from embedded systems to web development, and recently ran a team of algorithms researchers in 3d printing, so was mildly exposed to computer vision and 3d concepts, but had no serious machine learning. Then a few years ago, I started to get much more seriously interested in ML/DL/Data Science, and... (read more)

2crybx
Your comment was definitely worthwhile for me. Thanks to your very strong recommendation (and the fact that it doesn't look like it'll take much time), I'm going to check out the fast.ai course very soon. I'll be referencing back to this comment to check out your other recommendations in the future too. Thank you.
edanm110

I'm not sure I agree re: lawyers, or about how people/society thinks of this. For one thing, I don't think most people are that OK with lawyers - they tend to get a lot of flack, and e.g. criminal defense attorneys will often get pushback from people who identify them with their clients, irrespective of the fact that they know the lawyers don't necessarily condone their clients' actions.

Another thing - most people absolutely hate hypocrisy. I think it's considered a death-blow to most people's arguments. People compliment poli... (read more)

3ChristianKl
Trump is a good example. Trump appears to most voters to not be a skilled orator but to simply state the facts in a down to earth way as he believes them to be. He's persuasive without signaling that he is a great orator.
2DanArmak
I did not mean to misrepresent what lawyers do (or are allowed to do). I noted they are restricted by lawyer ethics, but that was in a different comment than the one you replied to. Yes, absolutely, they not supposed to lie or even deliberately mislead, and a lawyer's reputation would suffer horribly if they were caught in a lie. I'm not sure I understand people who aren't OK with ethical lawyers, as a concept. Is there something they would like instead of lawyers? (See: my other comment.) Or do they feel that lawyers are immoral by association with injustice - the intuition of "moral contagion" (I forget the correct term) that someone who only partially fixes a moral wrong, is worse than someone who doesn't try to fix it at all?
2norswap
Hypocrisy is anathema to me, but I've notice that many (most?) people are happy to let other people live with their contradictions as long as they are not very painfully glaring.
edanm30

"Geometric" intuition is basically the way that the 3Blue1Brown YouTube channel would explain things. I'm not sure if you're aware of it, but their "Essence of Linear Algebra" goes through the broad high-level concepts of linear algebra and explains them, with a very visual/geometric intuition for things like basis change, inverses, determinants, etc.

Unfortunately, they never covered transpose :)

Also, I'll take a look at your blog post, thanks!

edanm40

Theoretically, I'm most interested in things related to Data Science/Machine Learning/Deep Learning, as that's my day job. However, since this is my day job, it's also the area that I know the most about. So e.g. I've studied Linear Algebra, Probability, Statistics etc quiet a bit.

I'm mostly interested in rounding out my specific knowledge with everything else I need to know to have knowledge equivalent to a well-rounded math major.

In terms of what personally interests me the most, that'd be logic/foundations-of-mathematics type stuff, e.g. Set Theory.

edanm70

Thanks for the generous offer! What kind of requests would you like to get? Specific questions? Certain subjects? etc.

In any case, I'm going to write a bunch of stuff I'd love to have explained more thoroughly, some general, some more specific, if you can explain any of them that would of course be amazing from my point of view. Most of these are just things that came up for me while (re)learning a bunch of math.

  1. Linear Algebra - I have great intuition for most matrix operations based on Strang and 3blue1brown videos. E.g. inverse, change of basis
... (read more)
5Qiaochu_Yuan
The more specific the better, basically. It's unclear to me what counts as a "geometric" interpretation here. The coordinate-free interpretation is that taking transposes is the coordinate-dependent version of taking the adjoint of a linear operator between inner product spaces. There's also an interpretation in terms of SVD which may be more explicitly geometric: taking transposes swaps the left and right singular vectors. (This is one way to think about the spectral theorem: it means a symmetric matrix is a matrix whose left and right singular vectors agree, which means they're eigenvectors. This isn't quite a proof because singular vectors aren't quite unique but it's pretty close.) I wrote a blog post about SVD; not sure whether it will give you what you want but I like it. As gjm says, ordinary induction is a special case of transfinite induction so it's not exactly a whole new kind of induction, just a (pretty mild, all things considered) generalization.
2Richard_Ngo
I'd also add to 2: an intuitive explanation of eigenvectors and their properties in general. They seem to pop up everywhere in Linear Algebra and when then do, people gesture towards a set of intuitions about them that I haven't managed to pick up.
2gjm
On 3: when doing a mathematics degree, you will often get a fair bit of choice of what subjects to study in depth. So any list of subjects-you-need-to-know will need to be somewhat variable -- or else end up covering more than most people would do in their actual undergraduate studies. Could you say more about what areas you're interested in?
gjm110

I'll have a go at 4. (I don't know what is and isn't in your brain, so this may be entirely unhelpful. Even if so, it may help make it clearer what would be helpful.)

I think a better perspective on induction is that "regular induction" is just a special case of transfinite induction.

Ordinary induction over the natural numbers

When you first learn about induction, it's usually presented something like this: "To prove that P(n) for all n, prove that P(0) and that P(n) => P(n+1)." But it's not that uncommon to ha... (read more)

4TurnTrout
I second this; I too would appreciate a Qiaochu’s-eye view. Also, are there hidden dependencies in the MIRI reading list? I feel like some subjects would be most profitably studied before or after others - category theory is mentioned as helping you understand the underlying structures of mathematics and generalize your understanding - so does that mean read early, or read near completion of the list?
edanm630

First of all, I want to join all the others in thanking you for the honesty and for the sharing.

I'm going to give a few of my views of this, as someone who has a fair amount of experience in "startup-land". Some of this will be "criticism", but please don't take offense - it's really hard to get these things right, and we all made and continue to make mistakes. And you seem to have gotten to some of these conclusions yourself - I'm writing this for the hypothetical other people who may want to start a startup, so mak... (read more)

2TAG
On a related note. a 55 page spec should not leave people basically in the dark.
3alexei
Thanks for the comment. Yeah, we definitely planned to make a lot of money. But I think the steps from what we were building to where we would be making money were too indirect / too far.
8ChristianKl
From what Eliezer wrote at the time he did think that it will create huge economic value and make massive profits. If a substantial number of people learn skills by reading on Arbital that would have allowed to make money by running ads and also in other ways.
edanm60

Very interesting, and I kind-of agree with the conclusion. However, as a few people pointed out, it wasn't as simple as just buying bitcoin, you had to sell at the right time, etc.. And buying bitcoin was complicated.

But the other problem is that there are thousands of opportunities, things you should do, etc, lying around, with a possibly good payoff in expected value terms. And how many of them do we do? How many of them do we even think about seriously?

Just a few off the top of my head (first two are obvious, then some others):

  1. Cryo, obviously.
  2. AI sa
... (read more)
edanm50

Why do you want to buy a hat?

Almost all "non-geeky" / "normal" people don't regularly wear hats. If you're trying to look "better" and "more fashionable", the best solution is to skip the hat, and get sunglasses to protect your eyes

-1Jiro
There's a reason why "fedora" is used as an insult; wearing one indicates a lack of social skills insofar as the wearer doesn't understand the value of dressing like other people. At most, there might be exceptions for headgear to keep warm in cold climates, and for regional differences in clothing (such as cowboy hats in rural Texas).
edanm210

Over the last 2.5 years, my co-founder and I grew the Dev Shop we founded (Purple Bit) into a very profitable small company, employing 7 people.

Purple Bit has just been acquired by a former client of ours, Autodesk Inc. Autodesk are the makers of AutoCAD, 3D Studio Max, Maya and many other professional 3d software products.

(Note: this didn't happen this month, but it wasn't public until now).

edanm10

So, do you have a specific marketing plan for getting the word out there about these books?

More specifically, you have access to an entire community rooting for you... how can we help?

(Also, I've been convinced by other commenters here - I normally don't buy physical books anymore, but here I'll make an exception for '"fanboyism" and "gifting" purposes).

4Rob Bensinger
My advice to people who want to promote the sequences in their new form would be 'Try lots of things and report back about what works/doesn't.' Focus primarily on people who are already interested in science, philosophy, and math (or at least two of those three), and keep in mind that the book will criticize religions quite a bit (e.g., Religion's Claim To Be Non-Disprovable and posts from 'Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions') very early on. Methods fans may be interested (since they already like Eliezer's writing style, and Methods itself is ending). Vaniver suggested that diving straight from a 2000-page Eliezer tome (Methods) to an 1800-page one (Rationality: From AI to Zombies) might feel overwhelming without some kind of break, but I still feel this is a good time to get the word out about the eBook. In terms of larger-scale projects, I love the idea of a fan-led effort to annotate Methods and e.g. cross-reference its contents to relevant parts of R:AZ. If things go well, we plan to market the print volumes (and maybe similar-sized eBooks) in a more robust way, since a 300-page book is a much easier sell than an 1800-page one.
edanm160

I remembered it too. Found the quote you're referring to, I think:

"He ran a quick self-predictive model. There was a ninety-three per cent chance that he’d give in, after a kilotau spent agonising over the decision. It hardly seemed fair to keep Karpal waiting that long."

Egan, Greg (2010-12-30). Diaspora (Kindle Locations 3127-3129). Orion. Kindle Edition.

3philh
Thank you!
edanm20

It's less the "why do they act that way", more "if you had this superpower, what kind of really weird but powerful stuff could you do with it".

Worm is full of people using superpowers in really inventive ways, in a way that Steelheart/Firefight aren't.

edanm00

Tl;dr of my post: If you liked Steelheart, I heavily recommend reading Worm.

Long version: So, Sanderson is in my top 5 favorite authors, I think almost every book of his is amazing, and I loved Steelheart.

But shortly after reading it, I started reading the (now finished) online web serial Worm (from Yudkowsky's recommendation on HPMOR). It has a very similar premise to Steelheart, at least initially.

And let's just say, Worm makes Steelheart look terrible in comparison. Worm is just so much better.

Again, I'm a huge fan of Sanderson, and I still like the Ste... (read more)

0JoshuaZ
Have you read Firefight? It does a good job of pointing out why people with powers in Steelheart act how they do. (I haven't read Worm but it is on my reading list.)
edanm00

FYI, you're mostly right, at least based on my experience. I tend to have a much harder time listening to Audiobooks of SF/fantasy, and a harder time listening to any fiction vs. non-fiction.

I also have a much easier time listening to SF/Fantasy when it's in a setting I already know (e.g. sequels, books I've read before, etc). Also easier to listen to books from authors I read a lot (but that may be true in general, come to think of it).

I still highly recommend anyone who can to listen to Audiobooks, at least of non-fiction, as one of the best and easiest hacks around.

edanm10

Do you listen to Audiobooks at all? Are you only specifically against SF as an Audiobook?

I ask because I'm a huge fan of Audiobooks, but I've long believed that SF (and fantasy) are both particularly hard to like in Audiobook format. Non-fiction is by far better.

(I do still listen to some SF/Fantasy on Audiobooks, but it's usually authors I already know, or in worlds I already know).

3gwern
I am against audiobooks in general for myself due to my particular circumstances so my direct experience is limited, but it seems to me that SF/fantasy may not work for most people as audiobooks since they trade so heavily on immersive flavor and world-building (particularly The Quantum Thief, which is in the 'explain nothing and make readers figure everything out from context' school of hard SF), which would be impeded by the slowness of audio and the intrusion of someone's voice.
edanm70

Ray Dalio. Businessman, founded Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world. He is one of the richest people in the world.

From descriptions of Bridgewater, he seems to run it very much in line with most LessWrong principles.

In fact, if you want an instrumentally-rational and (slightly) business-oriented version of LessWrong, Ray Dalio's principles are it. You can read here, I highly recommend it: http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/Principles/Bridgewater-Associates-Ray-Dalio-Principles.pdf .

He is also trying to spread his take on how ... (read more)

5philh
Fixed link to Principles.
edanm20

I agree. Perhaps this should be qualified as "most important habits that are only recommended in the Rationality community". Otherwise there are plenty of other skills we can add (another example - start saving money early, etc).

4[anonymous]
Seems like the second list would be way more useful. I'd rather create that, and perhaps have a simple tag like #rationality so you could filter down to only those habits.
edanm10

Backed!!

This is amazing news, both that the book is coming along, and that there will be a professional Audiobook version. This will make it easier to spread the sequences, and may even mean that I'll actually finish the sequences myself, something I still haven't done.

Btw, two logistical questions (for Luke mostly):

  1. Was there any similar campaign for the book version?
  2. I understand that MIRI isn't paying for this Audiobook version? I ask because my donations to MIRI are now employer-matched, as are I assume other people's, but this Kickstarter campaign ca
... (read more)
edanm150

Something I'm looking for:

A list of habits to take up, to improve my life, that are vetted and recommended by the community. Preferably in order of most useful to least useful. Things like "start using Anki", "start meditating", etc.

Do we have list like this compiled? If not, can we create it? I'm a big believe in the things this community recommends, and have already taken up using Anki, am working on Meditation, and am looking for what other habits I should take up.

FYI, I thought of this as I was reading gwern's Dual N-Back article, i... (read more)

2John_Maxwell
This is a great book on habits and includes a list of habits to consider forming.
3someonewrongonthenet
I strongly suspect the real list of most important habits and skills fall within running, weight training, and cooking, but this is not the forum I'd typically go for advice on those topics.
0cameroncowan
What Nootropics do people take?
1Lumifer
Are you looking for a list of habits or a list of skills?
6Scott Garrabrant
I suggest you make it happen. Start with a discussion level post suggesting habits, then a week later, make a discussion level post asking everyone to rank them.
edanm400

Did the survey. It felt much shorter this year.

edanm170

(I'm Edan Maor)

Thanks a lot to all of you! I really appreciate both getting a gift, and the way you did it - I agree with you in wishing that more people would make donations as a gift.

You guys made my day! :)

edanm80

I'm not sure where, but I remember Eliezer writing something like ~"one of the biggest advances in the economy is the fact that people have internalized that they should invest their money, instead of having it lying around".

I'm looking for 2 things:

  1. Does anyone remember where this was written? My google-fu is failing me at the moment.
  2. Can anyone point me to any economic literature that talks about this?
edanm20

Question for anyone that's taking the course: is it worthwhile for the average LW'er? I assume most of us have an above-average familiarity with these topics.

0CWG
I've done the first 6 weeks now, and finding it very easy - but I'm definitely learning something each week. If you already know about the roles of different parts of the brain (e.g. orbitofrontal cortex, amygdala, DLPFC) and their interactions, then it might not be word your time. For me it's worth the time. Playing the videos at high speed helps.
0LizzardWizzard
Yeah of course for lesswrongers it's quite a novice level, but besides behavioral economics and game theory classics there are some implications of neurobiology which wasn't common to me
edanm00

Isn't that just technological progress? Except for asking people for advice, nothing else there changes how people think, so it's hard to call it a rationality technique IMO.

6Qiaochu_Yuan
I totally disagree! Paper is an amazing tool for changing how people think: it gives them an external source of working memory!
edanm20

I believe there are meaningful things people believe/do nowadays that they didn't 300 years ago (e.g. using the scientific method).

Unfortunately, for all these things, they're either: a) adopted only by some people, not the majority. b) As DanArmak says, adopted only because of "peer pressure" or other social reasons.

Now, that's not to say CFAR's mission isn't still worthwhile - raising the sanity waterline of just certain segments of the population, e.g. the top X% in terms of intelligence, is still of great importance.

But if there really aren't... (read more)

edanm20

That's a very good point, although I think a good a first stage is to find what techniques people are actually using, then try and understand why.

0RobinZ
A good second stage is to look for techniques that were publicized and not used, and see why some techniques gained currency while others did not.
0ChristianKl
A lot of decision making techniques that people are actually using aren't "rationality techniques". Focusing on "rationality techniques" means that you don't count that churches get their members to pray. If the churches have good strategies for getting their members to engage into practicing certain behavior copying those techniques might be better.
edanm00

Perhaps, but I'm trying to convince intelligent people that there are real changes we can introduce that will be adopted by most people, so I'm not sure the lottery fits the bill.

1John_Maxwell
Well you can start with trying to convince me then. If we can't get people to stop playing the lottery, what makes you think we can get them to understand and correctly apply Bayes' Rule? BTW, I hope you don't have the bottom line already written here.
edanm200

" This is obviously and offensively wrong. Does the risk of robbery improve living conditions? Does the risk of death improve life? Also, a future society where consent is optional appears to be a terrible dystopia: assuming a free democratic government, lack of consent implies that advertisers and corporations could force consumers to buy things. This quote needs A LOT of additional justification and qualification (and ideally deletion) to avoid implying that "raising the sanity waterline" means "abolishing liberty and ethics."&qu... (read more)

edanm20

I agree that textbooks are undervalued, but I'm still unsure that textbooks that meet my requirements exist.

Do you have any examples of textbooks that help a layperson understand economics in the way I envision that's better than a more "popularized" book?

0[anonymous]
I read Principles of Economics by Mankiw. This is the only economics textbook I've read, so I'm not a great source for a recommendation, but I think this book is likely to be lead to a better understanding than a non-academically marketed book. The table of contents is fairly detailed. (I'm able to view this under "Search inside this book"). You can see this is not a narrow text, but that no topic is dwelled on to the point of tedium. Each chapter is only 20-30 pages of so, and that covers an introduction, results, and examples. The examples ("In the news"/"Case Studies") are clearly chosen to interest a layperson who has some interest in economics, including an introduction to some lesswrong staples like signaling and voting. There are introductory chapters that try to introduce the economic approach, but most of the meat is in inducting from the gazillion examples and topics presented. The headings for Chapter 23 (explaining GDP) are a good example of the background technical knowledge that this book assumes (almost none). Remember also that textbooks are absolutely brimming with pictures and graphs, which seldom appear in large numbers in non-textbooks. This alone is a serious advantage of textbooks. In this case, there is also a little math involved, but the "Graphing: A Brief Review" section should give you an idea of the level required. What are the weaknesses of the format? It's doesn't push the narrative-social-interest button. Meaning, it doesn't follow a particular person through a particular story, which we're hardwired to find interesting. Related to this, it's also weak on history of economics. If I remember right, there are some nods to foundational figures (Adam Smith), and then a little bit on the evolution of modern macroeconomics.
edanm20

Relatedly, The Law of Superheroes is a funny look at applying Law to pretend cases that could happen in a world with superheroes. Very recommended.

It works well for what I want, but isn't in-depth enough to really leave me feeling that I've learned law. But the law is tricky in that, afaict, it's a lot of details and unofficial know-how, so many it's not a field where a book like I describe could exist.

0DanielLC
That description kinds of reminds me of How to Succeed in Evil, although I'm pretty sure the law in there isn't very accurate.
edanm70

I don't think that's the right approach.

A textbook is in many ways the opposite of what I want. In-depth look at a narrow part of the field. I want just the opposite. Also, something that's more about giving the story behind the field and making the field interesting.

Another good example - Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics taught me enough to understand the idea behind economics, the basic vocabulary, how an economist approaches things, etc. To learn more, I'm now looking at textbooks on Economics, but I definitely wouldn't have started there. And for the va... (read more)

2[anonymous]
For most fields, there are textbooks designed to provide breadth and motivation, and to introduce arbitrary newcomers to the basic method and style of the subject. Sometimes a popular book will be better, but textbooks are often undervalued because reading a textbook is weird.
edanm40

I once read "I will Teach you to be Rich" by Ramit Sethi. It went into a fair bit of detail on this.

I didn't finish the book and can't really recommend it, since most of the advice was very US-centric (e.g. optimizing credit scores isn't relevant for me). But it might be a starting place.

edanm190

Reading "The Selfish Gene" teaches enough evolutionary biology to understand what the field is about, to understand the basics of the field, and to be able to converse on it intelligently.

What book can I read that will do the same for me in:

  • Medicine/biology/physiology (e.g. able to understand the very basic concepts of what a doctor does)

  • Law (e.g. able to understand the very basic concepts of working as a lawyer).

Bonus points - if the book on Law explains the practical difference between common-law and civil-law.

Thanks!

badger120

Metafilter has a classic thread on "What book is the best introduction to your field?". There are multiple recommendations there for both law and biology.

0Viliam_Bur
Law Comic -- not a book, but very easy to read.
-2[anonymous]
A good introductory textbook.
0Metus
Can we extend this question to virtually any major field?
edanm50

I find most interesting the question of which God/religion to believe in. How do they deal with the fact that the actual, historical reason that they believe in their specific God/religion is because they were born into it (most likely - not true for everyone). Have they ever considered switching religions? What was their reason not to do so?

This usually leads to very interesting discussions on the "proofs" of their religion. And they tend to be interesting indeed.

Also, I might start the debate off by more general questions, e.g. "how do you... (read more)

4ahbwramc
Seconded.
edanm00

Like Anatoly, I also really liked the book. It's not very deep in my mind, but it's just good ol' fashioned fun, for the kind of people who love hearing of highly technical matters (about which they honestly know little, at least in my case).

edanm50

Glanced at the "Have a nice day" article. I'm absolutely shocked by how much can be said about a banal expression, especially how much negative stuff and criticism people level at it. Wow.

What made you stumble on it?

0gwern
Probably /r/Wikipedia.
edanm00

It gets worse. Most of his fantasy novels are actually connected into one world (called the Cosmere).

He guesses there will be a total of 30-40 books in this world.

Btw, for anyone that doesn't know, Brandon Sanderson was chosen as the author of the final Wheel of Time books, the ones that came out after the original author Robert Jordan passed away. So yeah, he knows what happens to people who start 10-book series.

edanm30

What I meant by that was:

The magic system is basically comparable to him inventing a world with extra laws of physics. The magic is usually well understood, at least eventually, and is basically treated like just more physics.

E.g. (ROT13'd for minor spoiler): Bar bs uvf obbxf pbagnvaf n flfgrz gung, jura crbcyr qevax inevbhf xvaqf bs zrgny, gurl ner noyr gb "ohea hc" gur zrgny gb tnva pregnva cbjref, sbe rknzcyr, gryrxvarfvf. Guvf vf irel jryy haqrefgbbq naq hfrq, lbh haqrefgnaq gur zntvp, gur yvzvgf, vg erdhverf fbzr xvaq bs ryrzrag gb cbjre vg,... (read more)

edanm00

Just finished Brandon Sanderson's book "Words of Radiance". It is the 2nd book in a (projected) 10-book series, and came out last month.

I thought it was a wonderful book. It developed the story from "The Way of Kings", some parts in obvious ways, but also in some new and unexpected ways. The world that Sanderson developed for this series is clearly huge, with many different actors and sub-stories going on.

Also, one sub-story in particular was very fun for me as an LW'er. I'm talking about: Gneninatvna, naq uvf VD punatvat rirel qnl (rot... (read more)

1[anonymous]
Is he high?! He already knows what happens to people who start 10-book series.
0ChristianKl
What does "realistic" magic systems mean?
edanm10

The biggest problem I have with this thinking is that it's a false dichotomy - it's not "Salary or startup" at all, and the fact that most young software professionals see those 2 as their only options saddens me.

There are plenty of other routes to go - freelancing, for one, which done well can give both higher earning potential, as well as more flexibility in terms of how much money you can earn. An effective altruist may well decide to work slightly longer hours for more money, something that isn't as possible in a normal salaried position.

Anot... (read more)

edanm40

General information-getting (most of this is general "stuff I recommend to anyone", but some of it does require money):

  • Get a Kindle. Easily worth its price, if you can afford it.
  • Get books. Much easier to get buy them from Amazon than getting them from anywhere else.
  • Make a subscription to Audible.com and start listening to Audiobooks. Incredible life improvement to be able to turn moments I'm otherwise not mentally occupied, with more time to read.
  • Get stereo bluetooth headphones. These are headphones you can easily stick in a pocket, turn on
... (read more)
edanm20
  1. People can change (e.g. update on beliefs, self-improve).
  2. How to choose your actions - think about your goals, think what steps achieve them in the best way, act on those steps.
  3. There is such a thing as objective truth.

Amazing how the basic pillars of rationality are things other people so often don't agree with, even though they seem so dead obvious to me.

edanm00

IS this a good book to start with? I know it's the standard "Bayes" intro around here, but is it good for someone with, let's say, zero formal probability/statistics training?

5Kaj_Sotala
I was under the impression that the "this is definitely not a book for beginners" was the standard consensus here: I seem to recall seeing some heavily-upvoted comments saying that you should be approximately at the level of a math/stats graduate student before reading it. I couldn't find them with a quick search, but here's one comment that explicitly recommends another book over it.
0A1987dM
I think it's even better if you're not familiar with frequentist statistics because you won't have to unlearn it first, but I know many people here disagree.
edanm130

I agree with VAuroch that this won't help much, because in general taking the inside view is a bad idea.

But if you want a few examples of places you've gone wrong - both getting a good idea, and executing a business, any business, are much harder than you imagine. For example, you wrote:

"Failure to think specifically about benefits." "The big issue here is the first bullet point. As spelled out by Eliezer's article, people are horrible at thinking specifically about the benefits that their idea will bring customers. They're horrible at movin... (read more)

3closing_brace
Yes, it's very difficult to predict what people want and will actually use, especially for a solo person. Asking your friends isn't enough because they will just try to make you feel good. To underscore your point, and try to help us calibrate risks, let's examine the risks of significantly smaller projects: * Start a blog with 500 visitors a day * Run a Facebook page with 500 likes * Sell 100 copies of an eBook, handmade product, or piece of art * Create an open source software project with 100+ users These goals are much more modest than starting a company with a mass market product, but they can still be tough for smart and talented people, and can easily use up all of someone's free time for months. And it's not guaranteed at all that someone will succeed at all in their first try at these projects. Because executing and delivering something people give a shit about is hard. A real business is orders of magnitude more complex, risky, and time-consuming. If it's tough to make something that a couple hundred people care about, then try to imagine how tough it is to make something that tens of thousands of people care about. Yes. Execution is hard. Production is hard. Design and marketing are hard. There is a big difference between class-project level execution, or demo-level execution, and professional execution that will appeal to a consumer market, especially a wide market. I believe this point has not been sufficiently emphasized in the original poster's entrepreneurship education. Your product (rhetorical "your") is not the platonic ideal of your idea. Your project is the execution of your product. It's inseparable from the design, UI, marketing copy, and other presentational and aesthetic elements. The medium is the message. Eventually, real consumers will face the real execution of your product, and there is an immense amount of variables involved in how they perceive it, which are really hard to predict in advance, involve the interaction of the
edanm50

Your post is exactly why "how many startups can I conceivably do" is an important question. If failed startups take on average 5 years to fail, which is a reasonable assumption for a semi-successful but ultimately failed startup, then doing 4 startups takes 20 years of your life. For most people, working 20 years at a startup and making relatively low wages is not feasible or desirable.

edanm300

This is a topic I care a lot about, thank you for bringing it up

I've been an entrepreneur for 5 years. I started out like most Software Developers - by starting a startup. After a few years, I became convinced that this is NOT the best way to achieve the outcome you're talking about (financial independence, aka ~5mil USD).

My basic problem with your post is simple, and others have pointed it out - you can make up all the numbers you want, but empirically, MOST startups fail. The usual figure given is 10% of startups fail, but this is a gross simplification,... (read more)

edanm70

Can I take this opportunity to ask about HIIT? What kind of HIIT workout do you recommend? I ask because you're putting it on the same plane as Anki, so it must be truly amazing.

Locaha110

At present time, I do 12 sets of 20 seconds work and 20 seconds rest, alternating between push-ups and squats (2 set of squats, 1 of push-ups). When I started, a bit more than a year ago, I did 6 sets. I average 14 squats and 12 push-ups in a set. 20/20 is different from the Tabata protocol, which advocates 20/10, but I found that one too hard. I may start lowering the rest time at some point.

HIIT is amazing for me in a sense that, just like Anki, it became a habit I enjoy doing (~3 times a week) AND it led to a significant body changes (less fat, more mus... (read more)

edanm20

So, we're what's called a "Professional Services" firm. This term is usually used when talking about e.g. Accountants, Lawyers, etc, but is just as relevant for a Software Consultancy. I'll go a little into the idea behind professional services firms in general, then get back to talking about us in particular.

There are many, many different types of Professional Services firms, but the basic business model is usually the same - you're selling your time for money, and people pay because of your expertise and experience in the field.

But here's where... (read more)

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