Part of what prompted me to give the talk in 2018 was that, where I looked, rationalist and rationalist-adjacent software engineers weren't noticeably more successful than software engineers in general.

How are you selecting your control group? if there's a certain bar of success to be in the same room with you, then of course the groups don't look different. My impression is that rationalists disproportionately work at tier 1 or 2 companies. And when they don't, it's more likely to be a deliberate choice. 

I have yet to see you reply to @Jiro's argument that shrimp welfare estimates are inflated by humans' inability to reason about very small numbers. 

Some examples of flirting:

medium skill on The Wire, failing to land: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eyyqoFhXRao

in crazy ex-girlfriend "I'm Going to the Beach with Josh and His Friends!", there's a scene between White Josh and Derrick. I can't find a clip, but the key is that Derrick is hanging on to White Josh's every word.

Ted Lasso: 

Note how and how much she's laughing at his very mediocre jokes. Ted could reasonably be interpreted as flirting back, but the audience knows he always make those stupid ass jokes. Actually the whole Ted Lasso show might be good for watching someone who's generally very playful and seeing how it changes when he's actually into someone. 

Roy and Keeley, also from Ted Lasso. Note she's dating his teammate.

Roy and some lady, still from Ted Lasso

Note how long she looks at him around 0:50, even though it's awkward while she's putting something away. She also contrives a way to ask if he's married, and makes an interesting face when he says no. He is giving her enough breadcrumbs to continue but not flirting back (because he's still into Keeley).

Half of the movie Challengers (including between the two ambiguously platonic male leads)

[At this point John contacted me offline and clarified he wanted examples of flirting that successfully end with asking someone out, but I didn't want to throw away my work]

Pretty sure My Name Is Earl: The Professor has this but can't find a clip. Also the first season of Ted Lasso. 

Followed up with John offline.

My disagree vote means: yes, this obviously happens a lot, and the fact that you haven't noticed this happening, to the point you think it might be made up, reveals a huge blindspot of one kind or another. 

This works as an analogy, but note that in practice giraffes spend a lot of time bending down to get food

I somehow went the entire research project without seeing a picture of Mark Driscoll. Wow, what a strong yet trustworthy face

however some of his younger, unbearded photos look super douchey, can't see why anyone would follow him. 

Fixed a foot problem my physical therapist whiffed on, and no. 

This theory feels insufficient to me, or like it's missing a step. It makes sense to me for people to pay when their preferred porn is undersupplied, but incest porn is now abundant. You need a more specific reason incest fans will pay even when they don't have to. 

Additionally, "but you're my stepdad" isn't equivalent to a couple of foot shots. Lots of people are (or at least were) turned off by incest. 

It looks like you're right that he didn't receive much funding via networks or sending churches. The podcast describes initial support coming from "friends and family", in ways that sound more like a friends and family round of start-up funding than normal tithes. 

I'm still under the impression that he received initial endorsements, blessings, and mentorship from people who should have known better.