All of fd88ar's Comments + Replies

fd88ar00

I'm sorry, I didn't read the rest of your post after seeing the 0.5^99 estimate of the probability of being the original because the math looked very wrong to me, but I didn't know why. While I agree there is nothing controversial about saying that after one step you have a 50% chance of being the original, I'm pretty sure it is not true that you only have a 25% chance after two steps. Yes, if you are the original after step one, you have a 50% chance probability of still being the original after step two. So, I Oi is the probability of being the original ... (read more)

0Nisan
If P(O1) is the probability of an event, then it doesn't change.
1rwallace
Hmm. Perhaps I should've put in a note to the effect of if you don't subscribe to the theory of subjective anticipation which would give that estimate, great, just skip to the summary break and read on from there.