All of fractalcat's Comments + Replies

First off, I should note that I'm still not really sure what 'Bayesianism' means; I'm interpreting it here as "understanding of conditional probabilities as applied to decision-making".

No human can apply Bayesian reasoning exactly, quantitatively and unaided in everyday life. Learning how to approximate it well enough to tell a computer how to use it for you is a (moderately large) research area. From what you've described, I think you have a decent working qualitative understanding of what it implies for everyday decision-making, and if everyday... (read more)

At a guess, "certain organizations beyond Britain's shores" is most likely to imply "somewhere we don't have to worry about pesky 'laws'".

Doug McGuff, MD, fitness guru and author of the exercise book with the highest citation-to-page ratio of any I've seen.

I had a curious skim through this guy's blog. Soon happened upon this interview with Joe Mercola. I get that people sometimes do questionable things they wouldn't otherwise do for publicity, but this is pretty out there. For those unfamiliar with the good Dr Mercola, he's second only to Mehmet Oz in damage done to public understanding of the scientific basis of medicine. That's no flaw in McGuff's own work, but I'm a little dubious of ... (read more)

8aarongertler
Yeah, this was disappointing to me as well. My feeling is that he's an "any publicity is good publicity" type, which could be seen as seedy (he has a book/classes to sell) or safe (he thinks he knows how to save a ton of time on exercising and prevent a lot of silly injuries, he wants as many people as possible to stay healthy). Having read a lot of his stuff and watched some of his talks, my beliefs tend towards the second, but it's unclear.

Imagine mapping my brain into two interpenetrating networks. For each brain cell, half of it goes to one map and half to the other. For each connection between cells, half of each connection goes to one map and half to the other.

What would happen in this case is that there would be no Manfreds, because (even assuming the physical integrity of the neuron-halves was preserved) you can't activate a voltage-gated ion channel with half the potential you had before. You can't reason about the implications of the physical reality of brains while ignoring the p... (read more)

Can someone post a ROT13ed link? I'm curious.

8ChristianKl
Rot13 misses the point in this case. There no reason to have a link here to the material and would a violation of the expressed Mod opinion in this thread. There no reason to have more people see the libelous material. Either you are intelligent enough to find the article on your own, or you can't read the gossip. At this point in time there's no google take down request against the article.

I'm not totally sure of your argument here; would you be able to clarify why satisficing is superior to a straight maximization given your hypothetical[0]?

Specifically, you argue correctly that human judgement is informed by numerous hidden variables over which we have no awareness, and thus a maximization process executed by us has the potential for error. You also argue that 'eutopian'/'good enough' worlds are likely to be more common than sirens. Given that, how is a judgement with error induced by hidden variables any worse than a judgement made using ... (read more)

1Stuart_Armstrong
Siren and Marketing worlds are rarer than eutopias, but rank higher in our maximisation scale. So picking a world among the "good enough" will likely be a eutopia, but picking the top ranked world will likely be a marketing world.

Yes, indeed, we don't always have conscious control over the same set of things over which we intuitively believe we have conscious control. That's the foundation of (among other things) the difference between System 1 and System 2 in the biases literature. It's also (as Kaj_Sotala noted) one reason habit is such a powerful influence on human behaviour, and the reason things like drug addiction exist. But how could it be any other way? Brains aren't made of magical-consciousness-stuff, they're physical, modular, evolved entities in a species descended from... (read more)

Nitpick: 'anencephalic'. 'cephalon' is head, 'encephalon' is brain.

0Document
Given only the two options, I think I'd rather humans grown for consumption not have heads than have them.