Thanks. This makes sense, but I don't get how tracking your prediction would lead to improvement in your prediction skills. Do you have to actively look at your past prediction statistics and see how you can improve, or does this improvement just comes naturally with practice?

Green is an obvious choice when this is a hypothetical situation, but if an actual mad scientist kidnapped you and other people and presented you with the choice, it wouldn't be as easy. You'll still probably pick green, but the most probable outcome is that the majority of people will pick it, and you'll very likely feel guilt for the deaths of those who didn't.

I didn't say it would be a hard choice, I just said it would be harder; you'll actually think about it for at least some time, unlike the second choice, where the correct response is immediately obvious

Assuming you meant "less than 50%" in the second question, they're both isomorphic to the original pill problem, but the first choice would actually be harder to make.

With the first choice, there is somewhat of a moral dilemma - if you press the yellow button, you'll be safe, but you will potentially be responsible for deaths of many other people.

The second choice is closer to the original pill question, and the only reason to press the "DEATH" button is to "help the people who also pressed it" - but if you don't press it, it's the killer and those people's actions that led to their death, so you feel much less responsible for it

I've gotten a crush on a fake person from my dreams about 4 times. It was all the same girl that just randomly appeared in 4 of my dreams (they weren't like erotic or anything, just normal dreams)

Can anyone who uses this or similar websites (eg. Predictionbook) explain what practical purpose websites like that have? Do you just want to check how correct your predictions are, or do you actually do something with that? Do you find the most value in the calibration graph and other statistics?

Relevant xkcd

Thanks, that's really nice. I'll definitely use it, if not for real decisions, then at least for Metaculus predictions

Are you using a spaced repetition system like Anki? I find it to be great for learning theorems and formulas, you should try using that if you aren't already. It's literally like a memory hack, you can just take any information and embed it into your memory (assuming you find the time to go through your due cards every day)