Diesnt that hypothesis run counter to observed health benefits and lower obesity in say japan and countries that could broadly be described as engaging with the mediteranean diet?
Both with lots of linoleic acid / PUFA's
Regarsing your example , Vacalav Smil has a lot of interesting books about the energy economy or resources as a whole (natural).
Exposing yourself to his ideas might open up some correlates or advise a heuristic you hadn't thought of in that context. "The energy economy of rationalist based thought process" or something like that.
Are you in any sort of psychotherapy for it specifically?
That seems like exactly something that could be worked on with empirically supported OCD specific methods.
Cognitive behavioral therapy for what appears to be fairly severe underlying anxiety?
Rebt in particular might apply as you seem to overwhelm yourself with the thought of the thing more than the thing.
Undiagnosed ADD comes to mind as "existential crisis doing chores" comes up a lot to describe it when I talk to adults.
Unified mindfulness would also be a suggestion, you can use the opportunity of the hated chores to wire up a more peaceful sensory experience and relationship to your body and mind.
We also have a "someone elses problem" milieu. So the ER's cant turn away the homeless but they onpy need to "stabilize" them.
Same with you or me really. So things that could be completely resolved with an inpatient stay dont end up with an admission because "cost". Nothing is definitively "solved" in a timely manner because of managed care.
So thongs are left to stew and get worse (in your case a proper holistic evaluation initially might jave involved exploring your diet vs years and multiple visits to all sorts of docs).
It ends up "costing" more but no o...
Its just biology so it isn't applicable to AI. "Neoteny" is you want to dig deeper , to have a baby born with above 50% adult brain size would require another three months in the womb and the birthing of such a cranium would be pretty deadly to the mother.
Humans also have a few notable "pruning" episodes through childhood which correlate and are hypothesized to be involved with both autism spectrum disorder and schizophrenia , pruning that also has no logical bearing on how an LLM / ASI might develop.
I had similar hpusing related "i'm the smartest guy in the room" belief some years back.
I was looking at broad amounts people were retiring on (not enough) in the US and then extrapolated that these older folks would have to sell or get second mortgages just to live.
And since the baby boomers are retiring , I thought (with no more data or numbers to back me) that we would see signifigant downward pressure on housing prices.
But of course as long as this doesn't happen in large piles , in large numbers of zipcodes and sort of in a short amount of time , then its not an issue.
Over decades in large parts of the world facing demographic challenges yeh. Not here.
To broaden things a bit discussionwise.
The leap from 1950's transistors and semi conductors to what...early 90's?
I'm not familiar enough with material science or any of that to make an intelligent call but does it seem like a logical progression or on inspection does it actually raise questions about recovered UFO technology?
At the very least I feel like experts in those fields either have or could point out that something seems fishy or they could convincgly dismiss the assertion.
Semiconductor chips don’t carry the secrets of their manufacture. Let’s say a modern chip fell into 1958. They had electron microscopes, so they could see there were tiny structures there. And they had analytical chemistry for macroscopic samples, so they’d be able to tell the chip was almost pure silicon, with small admixtures of the sort of impurities that form transistors. But they didn’t have ion milling and scanning microprobes, so they wouldn’t be able to tell how the impurities were arranged into devices. And they certa...
I'm not familiar enough with material science or any of that to make an intelligent call but does it seem like a logical progression or on inspection does it actually raise questions about recovered UFO technology?
I've studied this history moderately closely; I would describe it as a logical progression, and not like a jump from acquiring alien technology.
continue to fail at basic reasoning.
But , a huge huge portion of human labor doesnt require basic reasoning. Its rote enough to use flowcharts , I don't need my calculator to "understand" math , I need it to give me the correct answer.
And for the "hallucinating" behavior you can just have it learn not do to that by rote. Even if you still need 10% of a certain "discipline" (job) to double check that the AI isn't making things up you've still increased productivity insanely.
And what does that profit and freed up capital do other than chase more profit an...
I guess I just feel completely different about those conditional probabilities.
Unless we hit another AI winter the profit and national security incentives just snowball right past almost all of those. Regulation? "Severe depression"
I admit that thr loss of taiwan does innfact set back chip manufactyre by a decade or more regardless of resoyrces thrown at it but every other case just seems way off (because of the incentive structure)
So we're what , 3 months post chatgpt and customer service and drive throughs are solved or about to be solved? , so lets call...
Well to flesh that out , we could have an ASI that seems valye aligned and controllable...until it isn't.
Or the sociap effects (deep fakes for example) cpuld ruin the world or land us in a dystopia well before actual AGI.
But that might be a bit orthagonal and in the weeds (specific examples of how we end up with x-risk or s-risk end scenarios without the attributing magic powers to the ASI)
I think degree to which LPE is actually necessary for solving problems in any given domain, as well as the minimum amount of time, resources, and general tractability of obtaining such LPE, is an empirical question which people frequently investigate for particular important domains.
Isn't it sort of "god in the gaps" to presume that the ASI , simply by having lots of compute , no longer actually has to validate anything and apply the scientific method in the reality its attempting to exert control over?
We have machine learning algo's in biomedicine scre...
But every environment which isn't perfectly known and every "goal" which isn't complete concrete , opens up error. Which then stacka upon error as any "plan" to interact with / modify reality adds another step.
If the ASI can infer some materials science breakthroughs with given human knowledge and existing experimental data to some great degree of certainty , ok I buy it.
What I don't buy is that it can simulate enough actions and reactions with enough certainty to nail a large domain of things on the first try.
But I suppose thats still sort of moot from an...
For point one , yes. We have evidence that your body has a steady state homeostatic "weight" that it will attempt to return you to. Which is why on the whole all fad diets are equivalent and none are reccomended.
"Non metabolic" is sort of a vague statement but top of my head besides "organs" i'd imagine the possible gut flora problems could be huge (or it might be great because presumably you have flora right now encouraging excess fat etc)
I'm not sure the terms as you define them really hold.
https://ourworldindata.org/trust
So , the nations with high trust levels dont seem to map to your take. Chinas rated very highly , but from a western perspecrive its rather coercive socially right?
And what about small cohesive agricultural towns? , my...knee jerk take is that you should re-evaluate this model with a "maslows hierarchy" foundation.
That survey result feels hard to square with reports like this:
...Three weeks ago I went to a soccer match between Shanghai SIPG and FC Seoul. After the game the traffic around the area was quite heavy. I was waiting for a pedestrian light to turn green when a couple in their electric scooter went through a red light, an old lady hit them and the three of them fell to the ground. The couple got up, yelled something to the old lady and then just got on the scooter and left. The old lady stayed there for some minutes while people passing by didn’t even try to h
Right right. It doesn't need to be finctionalized , just a kind of fun documentary. The key is , this stuff is not interesting for most folks. Mesa optimization sounds like a snore.
You have to be able to walk the audience through it in ane engaging way.
Ok well. Lets forget that exact example (which I now admit having not seen in almost twenty years)
I think we need a narrarive style film / docudrama. Beggining , middle , end. Story driven.
1.) Introduces the topic.
2.) Expands on it and touches on concepts
3.) Explains them in an ELI5 manner.
And that it should include all the relevant things like value alignment , control , inner and outer alignment etc without "losing" the audience.
Similarly if its going to touch on niche examples of x-risk or s-risk it should just "wet the imagination" without pulling down...
I love robert miles but he suffers from the same problem as elizer or say connor leahy. Not a radio voice. Not a movie face. Also his existing videos are "deep dive" style.
You need to be able to introduce the overall problem, the reasons / deductions on why and how its problematic. Address the obvious pushback (which the reddit control problem faq does well) and then introduce the more "intelligentsia" concepts like "mesa optimization" in an easily digestible manner for a population with an average reading comprehension of a 6th grade level and a 20 ...
You should pull them up on youtube or whatever and then just jump around (sound off is fine) , the film maker is independent. I'm not saying that particular producer / film maker is the go to but the "style" and "tone" and overall storytelling fits the theme.
"Serious documentary about the interesting thing you never heard about" , also this was really popular with young adults when it came out, it caught the flame of a group of young Americans who came of age during 9/11 and the middle east invasions and sort of shaped up what became the occupy...
It seems to me like AGI risk needs a "zeitgeist addendum" / "venus project" style movie for the masses. Open up the overton window and touch on things like mesa optimization without boring the average person to death.
The /r/controlproblem faq is the most succinct summary i've seen but I couldn't get the majority of average folks to read that if I tried and it would still go over their heads.
Except "aligned" AI (or at least corrugibility) benefits folks who are doing even shady things (say trying to scam people)
So any gains in those areas that are easily implemented will be widely spread and quickly.
And altruistic individuals already use their own compute and GPU for things like seti@home (if youre old enough to remember) and to protein folding projects for medical research. Those same people will become aware of AI safety and do the same and maybe more.
The cats out of the bag , you can't "regulate" AI use at home , I can run models on a smartphone.
What we can do is try and steer things toward a beneficial nash equilibrium.
I guess where we differ is I don't believe we get an equilibrium.
I believe that the offense-defense balance will strongly favour the attacker, such that one malicious actor could cause vast damage. One illustrative example: it doesn't matter how many security holes you patch, an attacker only needs one to compromise your system. A second: it is much easier to cause a pandemic than to defend against one.
Aren't a lot of the doomy scenarios predicated on a single monolithic AI though? (Or multipolar AI that all agree to work togrther for naughtiness for some reason)
A bunch of them being tinkered on by lots of people seems like an easier path to alignment and as a failsafe in terms of power distribution.
You have lots of smaller scale dangers introduced but they certaintly dont seem to me to rise to the level of x or s risk in the near term.
What have we had thus far? A bunch of think tanks using deductive reasoning with no access to good models and a few mono...
This seems like the most obvious short term scenario that will occur. We have doomsday cults right now today.
Counterpoint , the once a century pandemic happened before now. So we can make vaccines much faster thsn ever thought possible but given the...material...timeline and all the factors for virility and debility / lethality at play with bioweapons i'm not sure thats much comfort.
It seems like the kind of thing where we'll almost assuredly be reacting to such an event vs whatever guardrails can be put in place.
Well they already have an industry for behavioral / intent marketing - this could make it a lot better. SO taking data and using it to find correlates to a behavior in the buying process and monetizing that. We have IoT taking off, imagine a scenario where we have so much data being fed to a machine learning algorithm driven by this that we could type into a console "what behaviors predict that someone will buy a home in the next 3 months?" , now imagine that its answer is pretty predictive, how much is that worth to a real estate agent?
Now apply...
"A" graded evidence on examine for PCOS symptoms and "fertility". "B" for anxiety (slight improvement for anxiety, moderate for "panic symptoms") .
Now, I have a lot of TBI's in my past and originally came across this for "OCD symptoms" , I wont bore you with details but it would definitely be considered sub clinical and not meeting DSM criteria for an actual OCD diagnosis. I came across inositol I think in 2013 or 14, either the nootropics or MTHFR sub reddits.
"C" rating on examine but that's because they only have one human study l... (read more)