All of gerryblog's Comments + Replies

I'm a fan, but if I were EY I would be worried about getting the nomination and then coming in under No Award. That seems a more likely outcome than somehow winning Best Novel.

6fezziwig
Conditional on it being nominated at all, I think it would definitely beat No Award. Have a look at the raw stats from 2013 and 2014; for Best Novel, No Award gets crushed by everything. In 2014, for example, No Award got 88 votes out of 3587 ballots. In a world where MOR made it into the top 5 for Best Novel, it can definitely do better than that. (Okay, yes, it happened to Vox Day, but that was for Novella, or maybe Novellette, whichever). EDIT: On re-reading, I think this is a little misleading. The Hugo uses preference voting, so it's possible for No Award to beat some particular candidate even if almost nobody picked it in the first round of voting. You can see this in the data but my summary was too casual. But like most other commenters, I don't think we do live in that world.

That's exactly what I mean. We don't know enough about magic to say what Harry or Voldemort's capabilities are -- the whole thing is a black box. It's not a satisfying answer to the puzzle (for me) and not much of a testimony to "rationality" as a way of thinking at all -- as presented this is about knowing genre conventions, not about superior or inferior thinking. All of the AI Box solutions I saw were much more pro-"rationality" by my lights.

I really can't believe "use magic" was the right answer. In addition to being unsolvable from the perspective of the audience -- we don't know anything about magic! -- it's also totally out of step of the rest of the work. I'd love to see a rewrite fork from the "AI Box" line of solutions.

In the meantime I really hope they're still in the mirror.

2Unknowns
Eliezer may in fact be thinking of this as an AI box situation, and trying to point out that giving the AI any extra capabilities in the external world whatsoever me be a horrible mistake. That said, I agree with you.
6Vaniver
Um, what do you mean by "unsolvable"? I would assume you mean "no one thought of it or suggested it," but in fact many, if not most, of the suggestions involved using magic in basically the way Harry did.
gerryblog340

I wrote a version of this up at reddit too, but it seems to me trying to hack the laws of physics is wasted effort when we know very little about how magic works in concrete terms. We don't know what Harry can really do, how fast he can do it, or whether Voldemort would notice.

What we do know are: how Harry thinks how Eliezer thinks * what Voldemort wants

So we should be looking at things Harry could say that would advance his goal of surviving rather than trying to come up with a combination of spells, with the understanding that winning ideas are proba... (read more)