For me, Vim isn't about speed, it's about staying focused. If I have to move my hand between the keyboard and the mouse every time I want to move the cursor, I lose a little bit of focus. Vim solves this issue by not having to move the placement of your hands. Of course a pointing stick also solves most of these issues.
The way I understood the intuition behind the Monty hall problem is so:
1. You've got a million doors
2. Only one door has a prize
3. Imagine what the probability is that you pick one at random (one in a million)
4. Pick one at random
5. Randomly open 99998 doors that you did not pick and do not contain prizes.
6. 2 doors are remaining, one of which you picked.
7. Has the probability that you picked the correct door changed?
8. If yes, why yes? and if no why no? And what is the new probability?
Indeed, it seems to me that Robin Hanson isn't for making blackmail legal, but for making blackmail legal plus a bunch of extra rules without explicitly describing what those extra rules should be.
Blackmail plus a bunch of rules is not blackmail as most people understand it I think.
Sure, but the first time you told that lie you probably used system 2 thinking. Your brain might have optimized this process by creating a heuristic and programmed it into system 1, making lying a simple reactionary response. If you're using only system 1 it's not conscious deception. You're not *deciding* anything, it a simple reaction.
As for your example, I think most people with no experience flirt with their system 2, optimizing their thought processes to use the least amount of system 2 as possible. Though you are right that I might ha...
My point is that the statement
*The Law of Least Effort Contributes to the Conjunction Fallacy*
Is false. for the reasons mentioned above.
I've skimmed over it. But I guess I have not written down my thoughts on how the Conjecture fallacy relates to social behavior.
If the following two statements are true:
1. The conjunction fallacy mistake is made mainly because people overly rely on system 1 thinking.
2. Complex social behavior, like deception requires system 2 thinking.
Then the following statement is obviously false:
3. People make the conjecture fallacy mistake because of complex social behavioral reasons.
I think statement 1 and 2 are true, therefore I think 3 is false. But because I th...
Let's take wikipedia's example of the conjunction fallacy:
----
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
A: Linda is a bank teller.
B: Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
----
The majority of people choose the answer B. So you ask, why do the majority of people choose option B? If you explain the conjunction fallacy to...
Eh, it appears that the Microsoft and other investors want Sam Altman back, but the employees are the ones that are making it happen. It appears that Sam was fired because of AI safety reasons but everyone who is really really concerned about that kind of thing already left and works for Anthropic, so Ilya's "But AI Safety" doesn't come off as very convincing, especially with the way Sam was fired. I suspect that people work at OpenAI because they want to, not because they have to. I mean, what were they expecting?