"Will XX re-open their borders for inbound flights in December?"
This question resolves positive if at least five international (5) flights land into territorial XX between December 20 and December 25.
Would love to see markets on when certain countries, like Morocco, Israel and Japan, will re-open their borders.
Essentially, the only reason they have ever closed borders is due to COVID. So the resolution would be straightforward.
These kind of markets would have high social value, e.g. travelers to those countries hedging.
Re BTC-PERP, looks like the funding has flipped negative for the last 24 hours or so: https://ftx.com/trade/BTC-PERP. There are plenty of altcoins with positive funding though, e.g. FTT
After hanging out in the Polymarket zone for a while, it became clear to me that there are at least two pretty distinct groups of people -- the +EV veterans who have fun trying to beat the market and make money, and the gamblers who like to play the game of betting on their opinions and seeing who makes bank. The latter group doesn't really like it when the +EV people find a "clever" edge like this because it makes the game less fun and fair-seeming.
There exists no third group that really wants an accurate up-to-date prediction of the CO2 level printed on the website as of the next day.
I think by far the easiest way to trade the US election (for non US persons) was on FTX www.ftx.com
For reference, this is Vitalik's blog post about the US election prediction markets (which of course favors Ethereum-based platforms!) https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/02/18/election.html. It looks horribly complicated. Maybe Vitalik himself didn't know about FTX?
Side note: for US persons, www.ftx.us is available (but more restrictive).
The counter-party risk (either from hacks or scams) of FTX seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. The recent growth in the FTT coin reflects this.
I think FTX will continue to grow in the next 6 months, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.
For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).
"Every hour, each perpetual contract has a funding payment where longs pay shorts if perpetual is trading at a premium to index, and shorts pay longs if trading at a discount. This funding payment is equal to TWAP ((Future - Index ) / Index) / 24. "
Source: https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360024780791-What-Are-Futures-
Regarding the claim that PERP contracts systematically trade above the spot, I'd say that in the past few months it's been true for maybe 60% of the time? It really depends on the coin and the market sentiment. So the funding rate ...
Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of the FTX exchange seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.
For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).
Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of FTX seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.
For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).
Just curious, what maintenance margin do IBKR/Ameritrade require for this box spread?
I suppose they might depend on the nature of the collateral, so let's assume my collateral is 100% SPX.
i.e. if I were to max out the box spread loan amount, what's the maximum percentage that my collateral could drop before IBKR issues the margin call?
This trick gives an interesting way to borrow money for cheap, and I could imagine other uses for it than CD deposits.
The article gives the impression that the only use one can make of the box spread trick is to invest the proceeds in a CD. But one could as well invest them in crypto or to fix their house, etc. Now regardless of the use the borrower chooses, it's their responsibility to make sure they can still repay it soon in case of margin call. I can think of at least 3 ways other than CDs that accomplish this.
Hmm, dictation typos?