I was also struck by this huge discrepancy between HLMI and FAOL predictions. I think that particularly FAOL predictions are unreliable. My interpretation is that when respondents are pushing their timelines so far into the future, some of them may be in fact attempting to resist admitting the possibility of AI takeover.
The key question is, what "automating all tasks" really means. "All tasks" includes in particular also all decision making: managerial, political, strategic, the small and the large, all of that. All the agency, long-term planning, and exec... (read more)
I was also struck by this huge discrepancy between HLMI and FAOL predictions. I think that particularly FAOL predictions are unreliable. My interpretation is that when respondents are pushing their timelines so far into the future, some of them may be in fact attempting to resist admitting the possibility of AI takeover.
The key question is, what "automating all tasks" really means. "All tasks" includes in particular also all decision making: managerial, political, strategic, the small and the large, all of that. All the agency, long-term planning, and exec... (read more)