All of JanGoergens's Comments + Replies

Does it make sense to reach out to Bryan Johnson (Venmo founder and creator of a large YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@BryanJohnson) to ask for funding for LessWrong? It just occurred to me that his interests seem very aligned with ours, and he might see value in supporting the community.

2gwern
Bryan Johnson is plugged in to Bay Area stuff and Twitter and regularly goes to places where AI risk is discussed seriously, like certain conferences, and if he is not already interested, it is almost certainly not due to ignorance of the sort some cold outreach could fix, but because he either doesn't believe it is a big deal or has chosen to prioritize his longevity/biohacking interests, and lobbying him unsolicited would probably just annoy him and I do not recommend trying. (Given the size of his exit many years ago, Johnson is probably not so wealthy he can casually throw large sums at projects of minor personal priority.)

GPDR

Since I have seen this typo twice, please change it to GDPR.

That was a fascinating post, thanks for writing it!

if brute force doesn’t solve your problem, then you are not using enough.

Stealing that!

Although not much, I have donated 10$. I hope you will find some generours sponsors that are able financially support Lightcone!

They obviously can't see the sign

Actually, that is a common misconception. Most "blind" people are not fully blind (based on a few google searches only 10-15% are fully blind) and can make out rough shapes and objects. They could be able to identify a rectangular sign, but might not be able to recognize the written symbols and thus the Braille is helpful.

Elon Musk talked to Lex Fridman for 8 hours about various topics.

Actually, he talked with Musk a bit over an hour and then talked to various people from Neuralink.

I was refering specifically to the CFAR workshop in Prague. The remote event location was bought with SBF funds and without any income, doing further renovations / paying staff etc. was impossible. I think its still in limbo, since I haven't heard any news in the past few months.

2Davis_Kingsley
CFAR has run European workshops in Czechia for many years, I think starting in... 2017 maybe, though with a break for the pandemic. The venue used for workshops in 2022 was bought/is run by separate organizations from CFAR and holds a bunch of stuff besides CFAR workshops; I'm not totally up on what's going on over there or the financial situation with the venue but I believe at least some events are still being held there. Before that venue was acquired CFAR ran a bunch of European CFAR workshops in other venues; insofar as that venue does end up having to close down or whatever it would not in principle prevent CFAR from doing workshops elsewhere, potentially going back to some of the sites it used in the past, etc.

I am pretty sure the common source was the CFAR workshops, that have unfortunately been discontinued. There was an experimental run in Europe as well (in Prague), but due to the Sam Bankman Fried fiasco, most of the funding has been pulled.

6Davis_Kingsley
FWIW CFAR workshops were not AIUI funded by Sam Bankman-Fried and are not officially discontinued -- though CFAR hasn't done mainline workshops for a while it's done various other less-public workshops and projects, and I think there's a good chance that there will be at least something similar to the old mainline CFAR workshops in the future... (source: work for CFAR sometimes)

I am unsure about the point of this post (maybe this series in its entirety). While I usually skim most of your posts and read sections I am interested in, I have not read a single section here. What do you aim to achieve with this series?

In case its mainly for your own benefit (to organize your thoughts / mark down important info), could you add a disclaimer or a TLDR with the main information for others?

I recommend Keepass, but you might have different requirements.

This video serves as a good comparison of your options and on this website you can find a list of recommendation for password managers and other privacy/security tools.

measuring my immune system response

This seems to be the main issue in this discussion. Especially if one does not experience strong symptoms, its hard to determine what effect different levels and duration of exposure have on ones body.

IgA and IgG seem to be good indicators, but their correlation to cancer and other risk factors is poorly understood. Also, I personally am getting tested once a year for those metrics, but that would be not nearly enough to check my response to specific restaurant visits I am doing.

but not worry about cross contamination

I don't like the phrasing of this conclusion. While I do think its okay to risk some amount of cross contamination once in a while, there are certain risks you should not take from a risk/benefit analysis standpoint. For example, I will never eat gluten free pizza that is prepared in the same area as normal pizza, or eat anything that comes from the same fryer as gluten containing foods. On the other hand I will eat at Chipotle, even though some cross contamination could occur. Also, I base a lot of my judgement on th... (read more)

1Jarrah
Ouch, I hope your intestine has recovered since your diagnosis. To be clear, when I say sensitivity I mean "how reactive is your immune system to gluten" rather than "do you feel gastrointestinal symptoms when you eat gluten". The correlation between the severity of symtoms (both obvious and non-obvious symptoms) is weaker than you would expect but it seem to me there still is one. In your comment you describe 3 scenarios:  (1) Risk of cross contamination (Chipotle)  (2) Known cross contamination (fryer and pizza prep)  (3) Accidental medium dose of gluten You are happy to accept (1), but you say celiacs "should not take" (2). I agree the risk is higher in (2), but the heart of my conclusion is that for some people (like myself), the additional risk is negligible and the benefit is significant. With the caveat that I need to check reality on "the additional risk is negligible" by measuring my immune system response. If my lifestyle includes (1), (2), and unavoidably (3), but if my blood tests show normal antibodies (plus possibly another intestine inflammation check to be doubly sure), I think that (2) is a risk that's ok for me to keep taking. Of course, it can be true at the same time that (2) is not worth it for you. On the last point, I agree that avoiding long-term inflammation is important. But I don't think it necessarily follows that infrequent (3) causes less inflammation than a lot of (2). Maybe a low dose slips under the radar and doesn't trigger a reaction. Maybe a moderate dose reaches a threshold and makes your immune system hit the button and keeps the antibodies pumping for a while.

The rate of rape in prison is almost 5% per year

The link doesn't go to the correct place.

George Mack on how to spot high agency people

The link appears to be going somewhere different than intended.

Finished the survey! I really liked it, some unexpected questions in there. I am excited for the results.

I am very interested in this project. Unfortunately, I will not be able to participate full-time, but I would like to join / visit for one week in October.

I am eager to contribute in any capacity I can during my visit, be it brainstorming, contributing ideas, or assisting a team with their project.

The Republicans are effectively pro Russia in that with all the US support, Ukraine is holding or marginally winning. Were US support reduced or not increased significantly, the outcome of this war will be the theft of a significant chunk of Ukraine by Russia, about 20 percent of the territory.

I think the framing of the question plays a big role here. If your claim was added as an implication for example, I expect the answer would look very differently. There are other issues as well, where there is bipartisan support, these were just the first two that ca... (read more)

-5[anonymous]

I don't think that is correct. Current counter-examples are:

  • view on China; both parties dislike China and want to prevent them from becoming more powerful [1]
  • support for Ukraine; both sides are against Russia[2]
     

While there are differences in opinion on these issues, overall sentiment is generally similar. I think AI can be one such issue, since overall concern (not X-Risk) appears to be bipartisan.[3]

  1. ^

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/471551/record-low-americans-view-china-favorably.aspx

  2. ^

    https://www.reuters.com/world/most-americans-support-us-arming-

... (read more)
1[anonymous]
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/15/more-than-four-in-ten-republicans-now-say-the-us-is-providing-too-much-aid-to-ukraine/ The Republicans are effectively pro Russia in that with all the US support, Ukraine is holding or marginally winning. Were US support reduced or not increased significantly, the outcome of this war will be the theft of a significant chunk of Ukraine by Russia, about 20 percent of the territory. It is possible that if the republicans regain control of both houses and the presidency they will evolve their views to full support for Ukraine, they may be feigning concern over the cost as a negotiating tactic. The issue with AI/AGI research is there are reasons for a very strong, pro AGI group to exist. If for no other reason that if international rivals refuse any meaningful agreements to slow or pause AGI research (what I think is the 90 percent outcome), the USA will have no choice but to keep up. Whether this continues as a bunch of private companies or a centralized national defense effort I don't know. In addition, shareholders of tech companies, state governments - there are many parties who will financially benefit if AGIs are built and deployed at full scale. They want to see the 100 or 1000x returns that are theoretically possible, and can spend a lot of money to manipulate the refs here. They will probably demand evidence that the technology is too dangerous to make them rich instead of just speculation/models of the future we have now.

but my current configuration is based on years or even decades of optimization

Have you shared this before? I would be really interested in a blog post about your setup and workflow.

I would like to have these books in audio form. Are there any plans to record an audiobook on audible (or other platforms)?

Edit: I have switched to Samsung's App "Reminder", due to it being better supported and having additional features.

Software: Notification Maker (Android)

Need: Get periodically reminded to do certain things / tasks (e.g. taking Vitamin D3 daily)

Other programs I've tried: Any calendar or To-Do List app

There are a lot of things that I have to do regularly, but are hard to keep track off. In my calendar they would drown out the important events and in my To-Do Lists, they were not salient enough. This app allows me to create recurring notifications and set the... (read more)

4Tristan Cook
I use Loop Habit Tracker [Android app] for a similar purpose. It's free and open source and allows notifcations to be set and then habits ticked off. The notifcations can be made sticky too.
1ErickBall
I use Life Reminders for this on Android. One nice feature is that the notifications persist until you tell it the task is done (or tell it to sleep until later).
2jaek
Google Keep has this feature if you don't want to use a whole app for this feature. On any note you can click the bell to make it notify you at a set time and on a set schedule. (I really like Keep as a note taking app but haven't tried Apple notes, evernote or others so I didn't recommend it at the top level)
1FlorianH
Great! + helps prevent clogging my gcalendar when I abuse of if for similar purpose - so far only on android, no win desktop/browser interface (?)

"Snow days are usually made up at the end of the school year"

They what?! That seems cruel...

3theme_arrow
My experience with elementary and middle school was that small numbers of snow days were not made up at the end of the year, but if more than a week or so was lost due to snow days, then the year would be extended. This appears to be the case in at least some other parts of the country as well. From a quick search: in Michigan "schools can be closed for up to six days before they must make up time to receive full funding from the state."