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All of Jawaka's Comments + Replies

When Truth Isn't Enough
Jawaka00

There was a three-page version of this joke in all variations in a Mad Magazine. Too bad it's probably not even in the deep web not in the web at all.

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What is Bayesianism?
Jawaka40

"A might be the reason for symptom X, then we have to take into account both the probability that X caused A"

I think you have accidentally swapped some variables there

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0Kaj_Sotala
Thanks, fixed.
Logical Rudeness
Jawaka50

Try privately arguing with a holocaust denier or a moon hoaxer. The ones I argued with seem to be more arrogant and more hostile the more they knew that they no third party is observing the "argument"

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0bgrah449
This is a great point, but maybe I'm just saying that because it's the exception that proves the rule. Just by arguing with someone with a fringe viewpoint, you've granted them roughly equal status, so they will be highly hostile as a status grab. However, in a group, these fringe viewpoints have a history of rewarding their advocate with exile - so the advocates will make a show of giving away status in that circumstance. Compare this vs. mainstream, acceptable views - say, conservative vs. liberal in private vs. public. It's much easier to have a productive conversation in private about these views than in public.
Open Thread: January 2010
Jawaka30

I stopped smoking after I learned about the Singularity and Aubrey de Grey. I don't have any really good data on what healthy food is but I think I am doing alright. I have also singed up to a Gym recently. However I don't think I can sign up to cryogenics in Germany.

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1Morendil
You can sign up from anywhere, in principle (CI and Alcor list a number of non-US members). The major issue is that it will obviously cost more to transport you to suspension facilities in the US, while avoiding damage to your brain cells in transit. One disturbing thing about cryonics is that it forces you to allocate probabilities to a wide range of end-of-life scenarios. Am I more likely to die hit by a truck (in which case I wouldn't make much of my chances for successful suspension and revival), or a fatal disease diagnosed early enough, yet not overly aggressive, such that I can relocate to Michigan or Arizona for my final weeks ? And who know how many other likely scenarios.
Open Thread: January 2010
Jawaka30

I am a huge fan of Philip K. Dick. I don't usually read much fiction or even science fiction, but PKD has always fascinated me. Stanislav Lem is also great.

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New Year's Predictions Thread
Jawaka30

China also springs to mind. I have listened to documentary about the Chinese empire and distinctly remember how advanced yet stagnant it seemed. At the time my explanation was authoritarianism.

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Fundamentally Flawed, or Fast and Frugal?
Jawaka00

the German name for Cologne is Köln

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The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom
Jawaka00

I feel the same way. I set the probabilities to 25 (not G alone) / 75 (G alone) after half an hour of reading, just because I wanted to have room to be more confident after 2 hours of reading.

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The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom
Jawaka00

Have you read the counterarguments from "Friends of Amanda"?

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1Blueberry
I looked at that site but I didn't see specific counterarguments addressing that point.
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
Jawaka00

This.

I was thoroughly annoyed by the sites layout and structure. If your main focus is on pictures of the victim and youtube videos, you don't really have a lot of arguments.

Friends of Amanda looks a lot more professional and the main points are much more condensed.

Estimates at three at night, very tired but sober. First tried to read the pro- and contra-sites, but I was too confused by the layouts and didn't know where to start. Then went on reading WP article and was pretty sure about Guede being the sole perpetrator. Read the other sites again and fou... (read more)

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