All of jenn's Comments + Replies

I put four questions into the survey that formed a loop.

what omg this is the coolest thing ever. kudos!

3Screwtape
Thank you! I felt quite clever setting it up.

...and of course the comfiest things of all are tri blend t shirts, which contain a mix of both polyester and rayon. you can multi track drift poisons!

While true, bamboo rayon also isn't the best for human health or the environment, so it really is a pick your poison kind of deal. Here's a short write up from Patagonia about why they don't use it in their products, and of course a lot of Patagonia's things are polyester or polyester blends. (The terms viscose and rayon are generally interchangeable.)

It doesn't seem obvious to me which is worse between wearing polyester and bamboo rayon, health wise, but I do personally find rayon much more comfy.

1romeostevensit
Thanks I had wondered about this
8jenn
...and of course the comfiest things of all are tri blend t shirts, which contain a mix of both polyester and rayon. you can multi track drift poisons!
  1. you'll know if you actually clicked through to the reading 😏
  2. no, i meant this metaphorically! srinivasan is fairly outgroup, so it's interesting to see her engage with hanson's tweets.

I wrote up my much less seriously considered tests at https://jenn.site/2024/12/llm-creativity/ in part due to this post.

LLMs for creative work seems to be an area that you're poking at a lot these days and I always enjoy seeing what you get up to with it :]

i think i agree that this does justified harm, but maybe for some subgroups or communities the justified harm is worth the benefits of such an event? our local rationality community has developed to a point where i think people are comfortable talking about "controversial" statements with their real faces on because the vibes are one where any attempt at cancellation instead of dialogue will be met with eyerolls and social exclusion but like, you know, it took a pretty long time and sustained effort for us to get here. (and maybe im wrong and there are peo... (read more)

0Cole Wyeth
You may be right that the benefits are worth the costs for some people, but I think if you have access to a group interested in doing social events with plausible deniability, that group is probably already a place where you should be able to be honest about your beliefs without fear of "cancellation." Then it is preferable to practice (and expect) the moral courage / accountability / honesty of saying what you actually believe and defending it within that group. If you don't have a group of people interested in doing social events with plausible deniability, you probably can't do them and this point is mute. So I'm not sure I understand the use case - you have a friend group that is a little cancel-ish but still interested in expressing controversial beliefs? That sounds like something that is not a rationalist group (or maybe I am spoiled by the culture of Jenn's meetups). 

I have a fun crowd where half the people who showed up already read the entire thing in their own time as it came out, that was helpful :p

I'm interested if you're still adding folks. I run local rationality meetups, this seems like a potentially interesting way to find readings/topics for meetups (e.g. "find me three readings with three different angles on applied rationality", "what could be some good readings to juxtapose with burdens by scott alexander", etc.)

3Ruby
Added! (Can take a few min to activate though) My advice is for each one of those, ask in it in a new separate/fresh chat because it'll only a do single search per chat.

happened to run this two days in a row, first at my regular meetup and then at a normal board games night. i was expecting it to be a pretty serious workshop exercise for some reason, but it turned out to be very fun!

in the rat meetup people were very aware about the 1/3 chance that the group was trying to deceive them. actually, at some point one person was like "i know you're trying to help me, but i'm going to be dumb and dissent anyways", and then did so.

at the board game night most people seemed to feel like it was very rude to bring collusion up as a... (read more)

3Screwtape
Thank you for the feedback! I'm delighted it worked for a regular board game meetup. One of my goals with embedding rationalist lessons in games is to make them easy to export out of a rationalist meetup, so I'm glad it's working! I am a little surprised that people didn't want to bring up collusion- I would have expected Werewolf or Blood on the Clocktower or other social deception games to have raised the idea of traitors in ones midst. Wild musing, but I wonder if it's significant that usually in social deception games most of the players are on Team Good, whereas this one if you have people working against you it's the whole room. It gives me the idea to make the evil, Robbers Cave version of this where you divide the Collective into two groups along some obvious split, and have them roll separately.  I like your questions! I hope you don't mind, I went and added them to the suggested questions list. Tailoring the questions to the Lonesome sounds great and I encourage it, I just can't tailor them in the document :D  . . . when I first read "what is the chubby bunny world record" I thought that would actually be straightforward; Guinness Book Of World Records keeps track of the heaviest rabbit.

how would you go about doing that?

2[anonymous]
Same as usual, with each person summarizing a chapter, and then there's a group discussion where they try to piece together the true story

thanks for the suggestions! and huh, I did not know this about textbooks, I think that makes it more viable as a partitioned book club feature.

I'm trying to remember the name of a blog. The only things I remember about it is that it's at least a tiny bit linked to this community, and that there is some sort of automatic decaying endorsement feature. Like, there was a subheading indicating the likely percentage of claims the author no longer endorses based on the age of the post. Does anyone know what I'm talking about?

6Raemon
The ferrett.

thanks for writing this! can you say a little bit more about the process of writing notes on a scribe? I've been interested in getting one, but my understanding is that e-ink displays are good for mostly static displays, and writing notes on it requires it to update in real-time and will drain the battery fairly quickly? my own e-reader is from like, 2018, so idk if there's been significant updates. how often do you need to charge them when you're using them?

4mesaoptimizer
The Kindle Scribe, IIRC has a 18 ms latency for rendering whatever you write on it using the Wacom-like pen. I believe that was the lowest latency you could get at the time (the Apple Pencil on iPads supposedly has a latency of 7-10 ms, but they use some sort of software to predict what you'll do next, so that doesn't count in my opinion). I found the experience of writing notes on the Kindle Scribe great! It was about as effortless as writing on paper, with the advantage of being able to easily erase what I wrote with the flip of the Premium Pen. There are tail annoyances, but that didn't seem to me to be worse than the tail annoyances of using physical pen and paper (whether gel ink, fountain pens, or ball point pens). Writing on the Scribe does drain your battery faster. The number that comes to mind is that you can write on it continually for about eight hours before you wholly drain the battery, while if you only read on it, you don't need to charge the Kindle for weeks. I recommend the My Deep Guide Youtube channel for in-depth information about various e-readers and if you want to get up to speed on the current e-reader zeitgeist.

your points about taking the time to think through problems and how you can do this across many contexts is definitely what i was going for subtextually. so, thanks for ruining all of my delicate subtlety, adam :p

standing on others' shoulders is definitely a reasonable play as well, although this is not something that works great for me as a Canadian - international shipping is expensive and domestic supply of any recommended product isn't guaranteed.

counterpoint: I run a weekly meetup in a mid-size Canadian city and I think it's going swimmingly. It is not trivial to provide value but it is also not insurmountably difficult: I got funding from the EA Infrastructure Fund to buy a day off me per week for running meetups and content planning, and that's enough for me to create programming that people really like, in addition to occasional larger events like day trips and cottage weekends. 8-12 people show up to standard meetups, I'd say around 70% are regulars who show up ~weekly and then you have a long... (read more)

heh, thanks, I was going to make a joke about memorizing the top 10 astrology signs but then I didn't think it was funny enough to actually complete

leaving out obvious things like religious garb/religious symbols in jewlery, engagement rings/wedding bands, various pride flag colours and meanings etc:

  • semicolon tattoos: indicates that someone is struggling with or has overcome severe mental health challenges such as suicidal depression. You see them fairly often if you look for them. i've heard that butterflies and a few other tattoos mean similar things, but you'll run into false positives with any more generic tattoos.
  • claddagh rings: learned about this while jewelry shopping recently; it's a ring that
... (read more)
1Ms. Haze
Oh, also it looks like you forgot to finish your sentence in the astrology section.
1Ms. Haze
In-line with lace code is flagging, which has also mostly fallen out of use recently, and is not really done by gay youth these days, but you'll still sometimes see it with older folks. Notably, to my knowledge, it has somewhat less geographic variation in colors than the lace code stuff does (though there still is some).

Thanks for writing this piece; I think your argument is an interesting one.

One observation I've made is that MIRI, despite its first-mover advantage in AI safety, no longer leads the conversation in a substantial way. I do attribute this somewhat to their lack of significant publications in the AI field since the mid-2010s, and their diminished reputation within the field itself. I feel like this serves as one data point that supports your claim.

I feel like you've done a good job laying out potential failure modes of the current strategy, but it's not a sl... (read more)

5Chris_Leong
I suspect that MIRI was prioritising alignment research over the communication of that research when they were optimistic about their alignment directions panning out. It feels like that was a reasonable bet to make, even though I do wish they'd communicated their perspective earlier (happily, they've been publishing a lot more recently).

My specific view: 

  • OpenAI's approach seems most promising to me
  • Alignment work will look a lot like regular AI work; it is unlikely that someone trying to theorize about how to solve alignment, separate from any particular AI system that they are trying to align, will see success.
  • Takeoff speed is more important than timelines. The ideal scenario is one where compute is the bottleneck and we figure out how to build AGI well before we have enough compute to build it, because this allows us to experiment with subhuman AGI systems.
  • Slow takeoff is pretty lik
... (read more)

Thanks for writing this up! We tried this out in our group today and it went pretty well :-)

Detailed feedback:

Because our venue didn't have internet I ended up designing and printing out question sheets for us to use (google docs link). Being able to compare so many responses easily, we were able to partner up first and find disagreements second, which I think was overall a better experience for complete beginners. The takes that you were most polarized on with any random person weren't actually that likely to be the ones that you feel the most strongly ab... (read more)

3Screwtape
Thanks for the feedback! I've added a link to your google doc in Variations! We've got a bunch of different ways to pair people now, that's cool :) I think I'm going to try your handout next time I run this, I'll let you know how it goes! I also added a bit more to step three, with a little more detail on what the pairs are doing. I'll probably come back and try to break it down a bit more later; I'd sort of given the steps after "So how do we actually do this?" but this does have less detail than I'd like and doesn't stand alone as well as it could as an explanation.

The question is rather, what qualities do EAs want themselves and the EA movement to have a reputation for?

Yes, I think this is a pretty central question. To cross the streams a little, I did talk about this a bit more in the EA Forums comments section: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5oTr4ExwpvhjrSgFi/things-i-learned-by-spending-five-thousand-hours-in-non-ea?commentId=KNCg8LHn7sPpQPcR2

I get a sense that the org is probably between 15 and 50 years old

Yep, close to the top end of that.

It's probably been through a bunch of CEOs, or whatever equivalent it has, in that time. Those CEOs probably weren't selected on the basis of "who will pick the best successor to themselves". Why has no one decided "we can help people better like this, even if that means breaking some (implicit?) promises we've made" and then oops, no one really trusts them any more?

That's a really great observation. Samaritans has chosen to elide this problem simply by havi... (read more)

[reputation and popularity] probably have overlapping causes and effects, but they're not the same.

I'm inclined to think that this is a distinction without a difference, but I'm open to having my mind changed on this. Can you expand on this point further? I'm struggling to model what an organization that has a good reputation but is unpopular, or vice versa, might look like.

If EA as a whole is unpopular, that's also going to cause problems for well-reputed EA orgs.

Yes, I think that's the important part, even though you're right that we can't do much about individual orgs choosing to associate itself with EA branding.

4philh
This feels vague and not very well pinned down, but: I think a large part of it is the difference between "how positively do people feel about you" (popularity) and "how confidently can people predict what you'll do" (reputation). Of course both of these also depend on "what people/organizations are we even talking about here". So when NIMBYs don't want to fight you, that feels like a combination of * The NIMBYs themselves probably quite like you * The NIMBYs know lots of other people like you, and don't want to be seen fighting someone popular both of which are because you're popular with the general public, and I can imagine you being popular with the general public even if you're incompetent at your relations with other organizations. But when your dealings with government get fast-tracked, that's probably also related to people at city hall thinking well of you. But it also seems to me that a lot of it is "we know what happens when these people get to do the thing they're asking to do". And I can imagine that being the case even if the general public basically doesn't know you, or doesn't like you. ("Reputation" doesn't feel like quite the word for that, because I'm more imagining it being a "you have a history of working with us" thing than a "we heard about you from someone else you worked with" thing.)

I share your sense that EAs should be thinking about reputation a lot more. A lot of the current thinking has also been very reactive/defensive, and I think that's due both to external factors and to the fact that the community doesn't realize how valuable an actually good reputation can be - thought Nathan is right that it's not literally priceless. Still, I'd love to see the discourse develop in a more proactive position.

Thanks for your super thought out response! I agree with all of it, especially the final paragraph about making EA more human-compatible. Also, I really love this passage:

We can absolutely continue our borg-like utilitarianism and coldhearted cost-benefit analysis while projecting hospitality, building reputation, conserving slack, and promoting inter-institutional cooperation!

Yes. You get me :')

You inspired me to write this up over at EA forum, where it’s getting a terrible reception :D All the best ideas start out unpopular?

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mBTvWNj9EXxyMM9TS/eas-should-donate-2-to-warm-fuzzy-causes-and-8-to-ea-causes

I don't think the answer is super mysterious; a lot of people are in the field for the fuzzies and it weirds them out that there's some weirdos that seem to be in the field, but missing "heart".

It is definitely a serious problem because it gates a lot of resources that could otherwise come to EA, but I think this might be a case where the cure could be worse than the disease if we're not careful - how much funding needs to be dangled before you're willing to risk EA's assimilation into the current nonprofit industrial complex?

I think being in it for the fuzzies is in some way actually pretty important to effectiveness, and bridging these viewpoints would unlock more effective reasoning patterns. Of course don't give up on effectiveness, but the majority of altruists and solidarity-seekers in the world are fuzzies or anger-at-injustice motivated, and I don't think that's actually bad. Seeing it as bad strikes me as a very negative consequence of the current shallow-thought version of the effectiveness mindset; finding the approaches-to-thinking which can combine their benefits r... (read more)

The meeting rooms are in the basement! If you come in through the main entrance, do a U turn to the left of the vestibule and go down the stairs. It'll be the first door to your right

Sort of related, everything studies wrote this essay in 2017 and now "wamb" is a term that my friends and I use all the time.

https://everythingstudies.com/2017/11/07/the-nerd-as-the-norm/

1Brandon Kin Man Lee
I can also think of "MOPs" as a possible term, but that is more of a cultural class approach than a developmental skill approach https://meaningness.com/geeks-mops-sociopaths
3Dumbledore's Army
Thanks, I hadn't seen that before, and now I have a new concept to play with :-) 

i'm a tag wrangler for the archiveofourown, so if you're interested in learning more about human-assisted organizational structures, feel free to slide into my dms (although I might take a while to respond).

here's an explainer put out by wired on what i and other volunteers do: https://www.wired.com/story/archive-of-our-own-fans-better-than-tech-organizing-information/

i don't think it's a stretch to say that ao3 has the best tagging system on the internet from a user perspective, but you don't get a system that good unless y... (read more)

Instrumentally, upgrading your class seems like a powerful intervention, so it is really surprising when someone allegedly trying to "optimize their life" is selectively ignorant about this. Moving to a higher class would probably have more impact that all meditation and modafinil combined.

I think it depends on what exactly you're optimizing your life for. Generally, being surrounded by people who are not in your class is very unpleasant, so you find the class that you belong to and settle in there.

Isusr mentioned previously, for example, that intellect

... (read more)

So this is a write-up of discussion points brought up at a meetup, it's not intended to be a comprehensive overview about every single thing about social class.

That being said, we did go into Marxist theory a little, but mostly to talk about how it's now pretty common to be wealthy without owning any productive capital, whether or not actors and athletes can be said to own any productive capital, and the new kerfuffle surrounding California's new bill to allow college athletes to earn an income.

-3clone of saturn
Okay... but it still seems like a surprising omission. I'm only familiar with two concepts of class, the somewhat vacuous American one where everyone is middle class (which you seem to be criticizing) and the Marxist one. I would have thought almost all wealthy people own either stocks or real estate... what do you mean by this?
4Raemon
Ah, I see the brief mention of that at the top of the post. I think reporting on discussion points at meetups is a thing I want to see more of, but am not sure whether it's something that could use some kinda of standardized metadata to make it clearer what the context is.
Answer by jenn40

It's hard to find good English sources on this, but Africa's great green wall might count

1Ravi
https://www.greatgreenwall.org/about-great-green-wall I found this when I googled for it
2Douglas_Knight
Do you have good sources in some other language? Better to post them than not. (I am disturbed that all the official-looking links on the French Wikipedia page are broken.)