jleibowich

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I forecast for various organizations:

Samotsvety
Swift Centre
Metaculus (Pro Forecaster)
Good Judgment (Superforecaster)

I also teach forecasting classes.

If you'd like to get a hold of me, I can be reached at jleibowich@gmail.com

Restricting Dangerous Research: Has It Worked Before, and Could It Work for AI?

When creating policies to deal with AI’s rapid progress, it is important to minimize dangerous AI capability gains that could cause a catastrophe. While restricting scientific research is controversial, it is worthwhile to look at past instances to see if there are lessons that can be applied to limiting or...

Nov 20, 202512

Could Advanced AI Accelerate the Pace of AI Progress? Interviews with AI Researchers

We interviewed five AI researchers from leading AI companies about a scenario where AI systems fully automate AI capabilities research. To ground the setting, we stipulated that each employee is replaced by 30 digital copies with the same skill set and the ability to think 30 times faster than a...

Mar 3, 202541

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jleibowich

jleibowich

jleibowich

jleibowich

Restricting Dangerous Research: Has It Worked Before, and Could It Work for AI?

Could Advanced AI Accelerate the Pace of AI Progress? Interviews with AI Researchers

Restricting Dangerous Research: Has It Worked Before, and Could It Work for AI?

Could Advanced AI Accelerate the Pace of AI Progress? Interviews with AI Researchers