All of Jonathan_Elmer's Comments + Replies

The non-existence of unicorns makes the claim that they have legs, in whatever number, inconsistent with reality.

Cool. : )

Is "Unicorns have 5 legs" consistent with reality? I would be quite surprised to find out that it was.

0amcknight
Well it doesn't seem to be inconsistent with reality.

Could you give me an example of a belief that is consistent with reality but false?

0Matt_Simpson
Counterfactuals? If there's a unicorn on Mars, then I'm the president. Though it depends on what gets included in the term "reality."
0shokwave
I take "consistent" to mean roughly "does not contain a contradiction", so "a belief that is consistent with reality" would mean something like "if you take all of reality as a collection of facts, and then add this belief, as a fact, to that collection, the collection won't contain a contradiction." It seems to me, if this is a fair representation of the concept, that some beliefs about the future are consistent with reality, but false. For example: Humanity will be mining asteroids in 2024. This is consistent with reality: there is at least one company talking about it, there are no obvious impossibilities (there are barriers, but we recognise they can be overcome with engineering)... but it's very probably false.
1amcknight
I'm definitely having more trouble than I expected. Unicorns have 5 legs... does that count? You're making me doubt myself.

Tell me what Zork is and i'll let you know. : )

0Pavitra
Zork is a classic computer game (or game series, or game franchise; usage varies with context) from c.1980.

Coming up with a made up word will not solve this problem. If the word describes the content of the author's stories then there will be sensory experiences that a reader can expect when reading those stories.

7Scottbert
I think the idea is that the hypothetical teacher is making students memorize passwords instead of teaching the meaning of the concept.

A belief is true if it is consistent with reality.

4amcknight
I think this includes too much. It would includes meaningless beliefs. "Zork is Pork." True or false? Consistency seems to me to be, at best, a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one.

The first means that a fraction of the particles were nudged into a path that was a circle rather than a line. Apparently increasing the chances of fusion. As for the second a "fraction of a line" does not really mean much but it appears to be a comment on the size and form of the glinting thing.

I think the reason I was reluctant to accept that Quirrell is Voldemort is that Harry is a lot smarter than me and he trusted Quirrell.

-1thomblake
Harry is eleven.

That's actually a surprisingly good reason. In real life, the best rationalist you know is probably not a character in a story and feeling a sense of opposing pressure when you disagree with them is probably a pretty good idea.

5Vaniver
This should cause you to update down your view of Aumann's Agreement theorem. (I am reminded of many professional scientists tricked by charlatans when magicians were not fooled- because the scientists knew where to look for truth, and the magicians knew where to look for lies.)

Oh god, I have this mental image of Harry standing next to a blood soaked guillotine insisting that he is a Light Lord!

5Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aaand lo, this shows up:

Full disclosure for me as well, I want H&C to be Snape so there may be confirmation bias at work on my part. I think that the rage inducing revelation that Snape had in chapter 22 caused Snape to abandon his canon role has Harry's protector and went back to the obvious role for him: fighting for the dark lord whom he used to serve and will soon be returning. Which means fighting against Harry.

For what its worth Harry also thinks something significant happened in that interaction:

*Just before Harry left the workroom, with his hand on the doorhandle, th... (read more)

I think H&C is Snape. I am really confused about what was going on with H&C1 and Quirrell but everything since then is consistent with Snape plotting against Harry.

1Normal_Anomaly
What do you think is his motive? (Full disclosure: I'm >80% confident it was Quirrell.)

I don't think the guy who doesn't think twice about torturing or murdering anyone who slights him will turn out to be in the right all along.

Tom Riddle needed a Voldemort for his plot so he became Voldemort for a time. Just as he needed a Quirrel and a Mister Jaffe.

They prophecy does not say that "either he or Harry must die" it says that one will "destroy all but a remnant of the other." One way for that to be true is that Volde dies but is still exists as a spirit due to his horcrux. However even if that is the obvious answer it would be wise for him to try to determine non-obvious ways the prophecy might be fulfilled. Preferably one where he could win. For example, inserting his personality into Harry's mind so that his personality changes Harry's such that it is only a remnant of its previous ... (read more)

0Normal_Anomaly
If I recall correctly, there are unfulfilled prophecies in canon.
275th
Keep in mind that in canon, "either" in the prophecy was used in its lesser-known (but legitimate) definition of "both". "Either must die by the hand of the other", but what really happened was that BOTH died by the hand of the other. So if that persists in MoR, we should expect both Harry and Voldemort to somehow destroy all but a remnant of the other.

Ha, another magical weapon of mass destruction. Hop on a broom and repeatedly cast Arresto Momentum on the Earth.

Every possible result is a negative for Harry when his closest ally is accused of murdering his next closest ally. Even if he "wins" it is going to hurt, and it did. I can't square that with the motives of someone who wants to make Harry dark and strong. It is a big risk, especially when you are stuck in an interrogation cell for the grand finale.

Regardless of the reason for the spit Harry would still have to follow through with whatever that is for the signal to be sent back in time to cause the urge to drink. Otherwise it would be like Harry escaping from that locked classroom after Draco tortured him without then going back in time and sending the Professor to let him out.

Why not just chose a muggle institution that has a lot of gold and is corrupt enough you don't mind stealing from(shouldn't be hard) and walk in under the cloak of invisibility, alohomora the locks and fill up the bag of holding with gold? I agree that sounds too easy to not already have been done though.

3MinibearRex
I think this one would fall under the jurisdiction of the DMLE. In Canon, there were a few scenes with Arthur Weasley in which he discussed criminal cases involving wizards using magical powers against muggles.

I don't think the point of the groundhogs day attack was to find a convincing lie. I'm pretty sure the point was to identify a convincing memory. Once that was identified the entire conversation was oblivated and the false memory inserted.

0buybuydandavis
I hadn't thought of that. On the other hand, those statements seemed like manipulation to a purpose, and it's hard to see what's the point if you're going to wipe the memory of it away.

Alternatively it could have been a way to determine the right memory charm to achieve the desired effect without using legilimency

The Potions Master was frowning thoughtfully, eyes intent. "The reaction to a False Memory Charm is hard to predict in advance, Mr. Potter, without Legilimency. The subjects do not always act as expected, when they first remember the false memories. It would have been a risky ploy. But I suppose that is one way Professor Quirrell could have done it.".

9alex_zag_al
Like how in the GHD iteration we saw, she revealed that she was susceptible to believing that Snape is a Death Eater, and that it'd be hard to convince her that Harry would betray her. And, in fact, she was led to believe bad things about Snape, but not Harry: (Dumbledore in Ch79)

Maybe the reason McGonagall knew that Dumbledore was behind the Santa Claus portkey is because only the headmaster could create a portkey that would work inside the Hogwarts wards. Quirrell took Harry outside the wards in order to portkey him to Diagon Alley.

Your point still stands though because there are surely other things that they could do.

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5pedanterrific
Edit: Wow, did I do that?
0Anubhav
Then again, Snape didn't realize that just from hearing about the portkey. This theory's probably inaccurate. Retracting as per pedanterrific's comment.

A lot of the previous speculation was colored by the fact that H&C #2 was insufficiently clever to be Quirrell and insufficiently efficient to be a legilimens, but since then we have found out that legilimency can be detected months later so legilimens are back on the table, and the apparent lack of cleverness could be explained as an artifact of Eliezer trying to help the reader understand what was going on in that confusing passage.

Everyone is back on the table IMO. Here's my speculation that H&C is Snape.

0magfrump
I find that theory extremely persuasive. It fully explains his lack of skill in the dictionary attack, and the desperation, and sheds new light on the Quirrell/Snape forest conversation earlier. If Quirrell knows that he has Snape as an ally (as Harry lost him given the speculation RE: Lily), and has removed Draco and Hermione from the picture (and he does seem very guilty) this seems like a relatively good time for him to come out of hiding, which also explains his behavior RE: the interrogation.
4Joshua Hobbes
Considering how much Rowling played with the side Snape was on, I certainly expect Eliezer to do so as well. I think it's fairly clear that Snape has moved on from Lily now, but I'm not certain if we can yet predict which side he'll choose now.

In the next thread Xachariah pointed out that Quirrel likely has possession of the resurrection stone and was very recently(at that point in the story) told by Harry how to identify it. Given Locke's observation in his reply that one of the two privacy spells that have been identified is to detect powerful artifacts it would make sense that Quirrel omitted the spell to detect power artifacts because he had the resurrection stone in his possession. I am not sure why the resurrection stone would be useful for the mission, but surely Quirrel could find someth... (read more)

Jung vf gur rivqrapr gung Dhveery unf gur Erfheerpgvba Fgbar?

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I notice a disturbing similarity between what Dumbledore did with the note he left with the invisibility cloak and the actions of H&C 1. Dumbledore increased Harry's trust in him by having his motives impugned by a note that he then discredited. Dumbledor arranged for Zabini to achieved the highest possible pinnacle of untrustworthiness and then H&C arranged for Zabini to impugn the motives of Dumbledore to Harry's mentor.

There has been some speculation that Snape is H&C, but what has been lacking as far as I can tell is motive. I may have one. Cannon Snape was a Death Eater who only came over to Dumbledor's side because he wanted to try to save Lilly and then stayed on his side in order to help protect Harry out of respect for Lilly's sacrifice.

However, in chapter 27 Snape has a conversation with Harry and Snape says that he almost killed harry due to the degree that he was offended and that he gained a new understanding of what Lilly saw in Harry's father. If Snape r... (read more)

-2anotherblackhat
Cannon!Snape loathed Harry. Lili dumped him, if she ever liked him at all. That didn't stop him from loving her. MoR!Snape seems to have the same kind of selfless devoted love for MoR!Lili. An 11 year old boy isn't going to change that by telling him his love isn't worthy. He already knows she didn't love him, what difference would it make to him to know why? His murderous rage at Harry's suggestion that she might not be such a great person sounds to me more like an affirmation of love than a denial of it.

Yep, Anarcho-capitalism is the best idea I can think of to fit that bill.

We don't know that Snape wanted to eliminate bullies. Snape's intervention in SPEW battles caused a serious escalation in the conflict, but it was Quirrel's intervention in the final battle that continued the escalation to the point where something had to be done to stop it. We do not know what Snape's intention was for that final battle.

4pedanterrific
He might not have had an intention for that battle in the first place: The note from Millicent was sent by the bullies; Snape didn't send a note at all.

Harry also knows that Quirrell is an unregistered animagus.

Ya, it turns out that mark can be seen months later. I did not expect that.

Really, all I have to do is describe someone as not a good guy and you accuse me of having a two-color view?

The sticking point in my mind is that the groundhogs day attack should have been a lot more efficient if the attacker was a legilimens.

Abg fher vs Ryvrmre erjevgvat gur tebhaqubtf qnl nggnpx pbhagf nf "vafvqre vasbezngvba." Ebg13vat vg whfg gb or fher.

Guvaxvat nobhg guvf unf oebhtug nabgure vqrn gb zvaq. Gur nccnerag vapbzcrgrapr bs gur tebhaqubtf qnl nggnpx vf jung ernyyl pbashfrq zr bevtvanyyl nobhg gur vqragvgl bs U&P. Znal crbcyr zvfhaqrefgbbq jung unccrarq gurer naq Ryvrmre unq gb tb onpx naq erjevgr vg n ovg. Jung vs gung nccnerag vap... (read more)

0Desrtopa
Quirrell is also a leglimens, although I believe that he has stated that using leglimency on students makes things too easy to be amusing.
0TimS
You make a good point. All I can really do is distinguish between being able to read someone's thought-at-the-moment and understanding a person's mental methodology. Knowledge of the first doesn't imply knowledge of the second. That is, if you were talking in stream-of-thought with little filter, I still probably wouldn't be able to predict what you would say 30 sec in the future. And I'm sure that Q is not H&C1, because that would be pointless from Q's POV. If we assume the Hermione-Draco duel and aftermath was the intended effect of the groundhog day attack, I also think Q has easier ways of creating similar effects on Harry's psyche. I think Q would not need or desire to falsify the blood purity thesis ("true blood is stronger") to create a rift between HP and Draco. And if the Hermione-HP link was the target, involving Draco and Lucius seems an excessively dangerous complication. In short, I'm not sold on Snape, but I'm fairly sure it isn't Q. And the text is explicit that Hermione recognized undisguised H&C.

That is a good point. I would love for it to turn out that Eliezer reversed what Rowling did with Snape. I don't think that you can abuse generations of children, for any reason, and still come out the other side of it a good guy.

It would be just like Eliezer to add another level to Cannon Snape's deception. Bad pretending to be good pretending to be bad. shudder

3Anubhav
Two-color views...

Additionally, to meta-speculate a bit. I think it is more likely that Eliezer would pretend to destroy the relationship between Draco and Hermione that he has been carefully nudging together for many many chapters then to actually destroy the relationship.

1Joshua Hobbes
Draco definitely won't be pleased by these accusations. I wonder if he's going to have to reveal himself as a non-racist before this arch is up.

I really like that option as well. Rereading about Hermione's demeanor at the breakfast table it does come across to me more as playing it cool then resignation at an impending arrest.

4Jonathan_Elmer
Additionally, to meta-speculate a bit. I think it is more likely that Eliezer would pretend to destroy the relationship between Draco and Hermione that he has been carefully nudging together for many many chapters then to actually destroy the relationship.

Hmm, I assumed that H&C did what he did with Zabini and just planted the ideas that he wished in Hermione and left the results to play out rather then engaging with Hermione in a ongoing conversation.

1Joshua Hobbes
H&C presumably contacted Zabini more than once when using him as a pawn. I imagine he'd talk to hermione after the battle regardless of whether she was able to summon him when she got the letter.

It is highly unlikely that Hermione would agree to the duel considering her reaction to whatever H&C convinced her of, and Draco saw attacking her on the spot as a forced move. So, Hermione declined Draco's duel and Draco attacked her on the spot.

I think Hermione fought it life-or-death and did Draco serious damage.

Edit: Actually she should not have been able to do him serious damage if the wards actually work as they are alleged to work. Maybe she tried to do him serious damage, the wards did... whatever they do and Dumbledore felt compelled to report the attempt? I'm not sure any more.

5Joshua Hobbes
Now that she's H&C's Mind-Rape slave, Hermione probably told him/her as soon as she got Draco's letters. So the question is what H&C would tell Hermione to do. Come to think of it, all this has been the result of Hermione being convinced Draco is a bad egg. So, whoever benefits from this may well be or command H&C.

I still think he takes it as a confirmation that Voldemort is possessing Harry. Voldemort is much closer in age to Lucius then Draco. Voldemort playing strange games with your son is much more concerning then the boy who lived playing strange games with your son. Also consider Lucius's parting statement: "And as you have asked nothing more of me, I will ask nothing more of you."

Why would the boy who lived ask anything of Lucius? Voldemort certainly would.

1Anubhav
No shit, Sherlock. The question is "why?"

I thought the reason that that statement freaked him out is because Lucious was talking to harry as if he was possessed by Voldemort in an attempt to see if that was the case, and he interpreted the remark about age as a confirmation. It makes sense if you look at the statement as a deception because Ms. Longbottom walked up. I'm paraphrasing the first part:

I wont tell Ms. Longbottom to leave because "I prefer to deal with the part of House Malfoy that's my age" =>

I would like to tell Ms. Longbottom to leave because I prefer to deal with the part of House Malfoy that's my age(but I wont because I want to keep up appearances).

2Anubhav
That reading seems far-fetched. Let's go over the conversation.... Part I: Lucius accosts Harry and speaks to him as if he were Voldemort. Harry pretends to be Voldemort (without meaning to). Lucius maintains his calm. Part II: Harry goes "you think I could benefit from doing Draco harm. But it is irrelevant, Lucius. He is my friend, and I do not betray my friends." Lucius goes 'what the fucking FUCK?' Part III: Longbottom arrives, Lucius asks Harry to send her away, Harry spouts the "my age" comment, and Lucius goes, "I do feel the fool now. This whole time you were just pretending to have no idea what we were talking about." Judging by part 3, Lucius wasn't fooled by Harry's act in part 1, but kept playing along just to make sure. Harry says enough incriminating stuff in part 1, but that doesn't convince Lucius... Clearly, he realises that that's what anyone trying to gain information would say. Since he's convinced in part 3, though, he must have had a relatively low prior on anyone except Voldemort saying what Harry did... But why? Why? What's so special about that one off-hand comment? <retracted, see Locke's reply> Then again, if he wasn't convinced in part 1... Why was he shocked in part 2? I can imagine him being shocked at Voldemort saying something like that, but why would he be shocked at Harry Potter saying it? .... Something's not right about this whole thing.

What I meant is that legilimency is the reason that Quirrell knew that Zabini would slander Dumbledor when he talked to him.

Just because Quirrell says that he recently stole it does not mean it is true. Telling harry that it is stolen property is a good way to make sure he keeps it secret without causing any suspicion about the nature of the book. I think that the diary is a horcrux and another attempt to turn Harry over to his dark side permanently.

Ya, If current generation wizards can brew a potion of luck then why not an ancient ward of luck? Sounds reasonable to me.

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