All of kairos_'s Comments + Replies
Adderall helps to combat akrasia to an extent, though results may vary between people (possibly modafinal as well though I haven't tried it). Though it is far from a "magic pill" as the effects of the pill go away + side effects + utility from long term use is uncertain.
How easy would it be to develop a drug that's more effective than Adderall or the other ADHD stimulants? It was developed in the 1970s, nearly 50 years ago, and the fact that we don't have a better alternative right now tells me we picked the low hanging fruit. But are there active efforts to developing a better drug? I'm not sure.
Thanks for hosting this competition!
Fermi Estimate: How many lives would be saved if every person in the west donated 10% of their income to EA related, highly effective charities?
Model
- Donation Pool:
– Assume “the West” produces roughly $40 trillion in GDP per year.
– At a 10% donation rate, that yields about $4 trillion available annually. - Rethinking Cost‐Effectiveness:
– While past benchmarks often cite figures around $3,000 per life saved for top interventions, current estimates vary widely (from roughly $3,000 up to $20,000 per life) and only a limited
The thing with NVIDIA though is that the IV is so high and so are premiums. I spent a few hours looking for a better trade than that, though I think it's pretty solid.
I think SPY calls can possibly be much better than NVIDIA calls. The market doesn't expect the stock market to go up significantly in the next few years, but I think theres a chance it will assuming timelines are short. Here's the SPY YoY growth during the internet boom in the 90s.
Year 2000 saw a -9.7% return ($86.54) 1999: +20.4% ($95.88) 1998: +28.7% ($79.65) 1997: +33.5% ($61.89) 1996: +22...
Assuming short timelines, I wonder how much NVIDIA's stock will increase and if anywhere near a 100x return is possible.
The further out and higher strike price NVIDIA call I could find is at 290$ SP, dated Jan 15 2027, at $13.25. If NVIDIA goes to a 10T market cap I get an 8x return on investment, if the company goes to a 15T market cap I get a ~20x return on investment.
I'm not sure how realistic it is for NVIDIA to increase past a 15 Trillion Market cap. Plus, increased government intervention seems like it would negatively impact profits.
2The thing with NVIDIA though is that the IV is so high and so are premiums. I spent a few hours looking for a better trade than that, though I think it's pretty solid.
I think SPY calls can possibly be much better than NVIDIA calls. The market doesn't expect the stock market to go up significantly in the next few years, but I think theres a chance it will assuming timelines are short. Here's the SPY YoY growth during the internet boom in the 90s.
Year 2000 saw a -9.7% return ($86.54) 1999: +20.4% ($95.88) 1998: +28.7% ($79.65) 1997: +33.5% ($61.89) 1996: +22...
Polymarket has gotten lots of attention in recent months, but I was shocked to find out how much inefficency there really is.
There was a market titled "What will Trump say during his RNC speech?" that was up a few days ago. At 7 pm, the transcript for the speech was leaked, and you could easily find it by a google search or looking at the polymarket discord.
Trump started his speech at 9:30, and it was immediately that he was using the script. One entire hour into the speech I stumbled onto the transcript on Polymarkets discord. Despite the word "prisons" b...
You said you've been buying calls on the general stock market. Instead, why not buy calls on 20-30 tech companies that'll likely benefit from slow takeoff?
This is very speculative, but if Anthropic/OpenAI/Google/Meta do achieve TAI and we head towards a slow takeoff, geopoltical risk from China may be a concern. To the best of my knowledge China is a few years behind us on AI, and doesn't have the compute capability to catch up. I doubt China will just sit back and let the US achieve such a strategic advantage, and may invade Taiwan to cut out our supply of GPUs.
Is it an FDA issue or moreso a drug discovery issue?