Nice to hear!
I think it makes sense that the orgs haven't commented, as it would possibly run afoul of antitrust laws.
See for example when some fashion clothing companies talked about trying to slow down fashion cycles to produce less waste / carbon emissions, which led to antitrust regulators raiding their headquarters.
I agree about the cooperation thing. One addendum I'd add to my post is that shared reality seems like a common precursor to doing/thinking together.
If I want to achieve something or figure something out, I can often do better if I have a few more people working/thinking with me, and often the first step is to 'get everyone on the same page'. I think lots of times this first step is just trying to shove everyone into shared reality. Partially because that's a common pattern of behavior, and partially because if it did work, it would be super effective.
But ...
Sure! I love talking about this concept-cluster.
I have a hunch that in practice the use of the term 'shared reality' doesn't actually ruin one's ability to refer to territory-reality. In the instances when I've used the term in conversation I haven't noticed this (and I like to refer to the territory a lot). But maybe with more widespread usage and misinterpretation it could start to be a problem?
I think to get a better sense of your concern it might be useful to dive into specific conversations/dynamics where this might go wrong.
...
I can imagine a w...
Hmm, I want a term that refers to all those many dimensions together, since for any given 'shared reality' experience it might be like 30% concepts, 30% visual & auditory, 30% emotion/values, etc.
I'm down to factor them out and refer to shared emotions/facts/etc, but I still want something that gestures at the larger thing. Shared experience I think could do the trick, but feels a bit too subjective because it often involves interpretations of the world that feel like 'true facts' to the observer.
Wherein I write more, because I'm excited about al...
Sure! The main reason I use the term is because it already exists in the literature. That said, I seem to be coming at the concept from a slightly different angle than the 'shared reality' academics. I'm certainly not attached to the term, I'd love to hear more attempts to point at this thing.
I think the 'reality' is referring to the subjective reality, not the world beyond ourselves. When I experience the world, it's a big mashup of concepts, maps, visuals, words, emotions, wants, etc.
Any given one of those dimensions can be more or less 'shared', s...
OK, I've added a disclaimer to the main text. I agree it's important. It seems worth having this kind of disclaimer all over the place, including most relationship books. Heck, it seems like Marshall Rosenburg in Non-Violent Communication is only successfully communicating like 40% of the critical tech he's using.
Do you understand how e.g. Rari's USDC pool makes 20% APY?
The only thing that my limited imagination can come up with is 'pyramid scheme', where you also get paid a small fraction of the mon...
Yeah I think that mosquito map is showing the Zika-carrying species, but there are 40 other species in Washington. Mosquitos in New England (certainly Maine where I grew up) can be pretty brutal, especially when you include the weeks when the black flies and midges are also biting.
I've been playing around with this concept I call 'faith', which might also be called 'motivation' or 'confidence'. Warning: this is still a naive concept and might only be positive EV when used in conjunction with other tools which I won't mention here.
My current go-to example is exercising to build muscle: if I haven't successfully built muscle before, I'm probably uncertain about whether it's worth the effort to try. I don't have 'faith' that this whole project is worth it, and this can cause parts of me to (reasonably!) suggest that I don't put i...
(I attempted to rank this list and the sub-lists from stronger to weaker models)
Here's a paper (posted 25 Feb) outlining neurological symptoms in 214 Chinese hospital patients:
I don't know how much this differs from base rates - like if I have hypertension and need to go to the hospital because I broke my wrist, how likely is it that my brain also goes haywire? Or if I get a fever?
Did you end up finding one besides the MIDAS network, or develop your own? I'm assembling a parameter doc for inputs to a rough model that accounts for ventilator & hospital bed capacity, since it seems like we're lacking that.
I've been a bit confused about doubling rate. First, I noticed that many numbers (e.g. Wikipedia) are calculating how long it took to double, instead of projecting forward using e.g. yesterday's increase. Early on this led to misleading numbers, but recently the US has been steady around 2-3 days using both methods.
However, I'm guessing that raw doubling rates depend a lot on testing, and that the US should expect to have a faster-than-actual doubling rate until our testing catches up. So I lean towards Trevor's number of 5 days.
Good point about LW affiliation - in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.
I'm still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it's a fun exercise so I've added some thoughts to the excel sheet.
Thank you for flagging this! Should be fixed now.