All of kdbscott's Comments + Replies

Thank you for flagging this! Should be fixed now.

Nice to hear!

  • I haven't written more about this publicly, but have maybe 70 pages of notes about this concept
  • I think basically everyone has a desire to connect / share their experiences, but people who have relatively unusual experiences (e.g. rare neurotype/childhood/etc), probably discover that it's much harder / less likely to get the warm fuzzies of shared reality so might give up on various connection strategies due to the lack of positive feedback (or negative feedback, since disconnection is unpleasant). Does that maybe get at what you were asking?
  • Oh
... (read more)
0qvalq
When I read "Extravert", I felt happy related to the uncommon spelling, which I also prefer. Is this shared reality?
1Self
  It all does! Again, thanks for sharing.

I think it makes sense that the orgs haven't commented, as it would possibly run afoul of antitrust laws.

See for example when some fashion clothing companies talked about trying to slow down fashion cycles to produce less waste / carbon emissions, which led to antitrust regulators raiding their headquarters.

4James Payor
Huh, does this apply to employees too? (ala "these are my views and do not represent those of my employer")

I agree about the cooperation thing. One addendum I'd add to my post is that shared reality seems like a common precursor to doing/thinking together.

If I want to achieve something or figure something out, I can often do better if I have a few more people working/thinking with me, and often the first step is to 'get everyone on the same page'. I think lots of times this first step is just trying to shove everyone into shared reality. Partially because that's a common pattern of behavior, and partially because if it did work, it would be super effective.

But ... (read more)

Yeah let's do in-person sometime, I also tried drafting long responses and they were terrible

Sure! I love talking about this concept-cluster.

I have a hunch that in practice the use of the term 'shared reality' doesn't actually ruin one's ability to refer to territory-reality. In the instances when I've used the term in conversation I haven't noticed this (and I like to refer to the territory a lot). But maybe with more widespread usage and misinterpretation it could start to be a problem?

I think to get a better sense of your concern it might be useful to dive into specific conversations/dynamics where this might go wrong. 

...

I can imagine a w... (read more)

3Elizabeth
Yeah I definitely don't think calling it "shared reality" will ruin anything. It would be another few snowflakes in the avalanche of territory-map ambiguation, similar to when people use "true" to mean "good" rather than "factually accurate". I've made a couple of attempts at a longer response and just keep bouncing off, so I think I'm out of concepts for now. Would love to pick this up in person if we run into each other.

Hmm, I want a term that refers to all those many dimensions together, since for any given 'shared reality' experience it might be like 30% concepts, 30% visual & auditory, 30% emotion/values, etc.

I'm down to factor them out and refer to shared emotions/facts/etc, but I still want something that gestures at the larger thing. Shared experience I think could do the trick, but feels a bit too subjective because it often involves interpretations of the world that feel like 'true facts' to the observer.

 

Wherein I write more, because I'm excited about al... (read more)

2Elizabeth
I very much agree that when you're not getting feeling X it can be very difficult to distinguish territory disagreements from feeling disagreements, especially when you're SNS activated. Having a term to cover all cases seems extremely useful. It also seems useful to have specific terms for the subsets, to help tease issues apart.  "Reality" to me seems much better suited towards the narrow, territory-focused aspect of feeling X, and I see a lot of costs in diluting it. Both because I wish I could say "reality" instead of clunkier things like "narrow, territory-focused", and because having a term where it's ambiguous whether you mean feeling X or objective facts is just begging for explosive arguments. I'm particularly worried about person A's (inside view) refusal to change their view of facts without new data feeling to person B like a refusal to care about feeling X.  Ideas for feeling X:  * "Shared subjective reality" isn't great because it's kind of long and the whole point of reality is it's not subjective, but does substantially address my concerns, in a way "reality*" doesn't.   * "being ingroup" or "on your side-ness". These aren't synonymous with feeling X but are a lot of what I want out of it.  * "shared frame" also is not synonymous but captures an important aspect.  * man I really wanted a longer, better list but it's pretty hard. Also thanks for starting this conversation, I'm finding it really valuable even if that's manifesting mostly as critique.

Sure! The main reason I use the term is because it already exists in the literature. That said, I seem to be coming at the concept from a slightly different angle than the 'shared reality' academics. I'm certainly not attached to the term, I'd love to hear more attempts to point at this thing. 

I think the 'reality' is referring to the subjective reality, not the world beyond ourselves. When I experience the world, it's a big mashup of concepts, maps, visuals, words, emotions, wants, etc.

Any given one of those dimensions can be more or less 'shared', s... (read more)

4Elizabeth
Thank you! I still find the term "shared reality" referring to subjective emotional state confusing, to the point it's confusing other people don't have this objection. I want to push for separating "shared facts" and "shared feelings", held back only by the fact that I don't understand why other people don't think this is obvious so it feels like I'm missing something. I tentatively propose "emotional resonance" for the feeling of shared emotions. Sounds like "shared reality" is already claimed by academia and maybe has conntations I don't want, maybe the factual aspects can be covered by "shared facts" or "shared worldview" (which would include value judgements).

OK, I've added a disclaimer to the main text. I agree it's important. It seems worth having this kind of disclaimer all over the place, including most relationship books. Heck, it seems like Marshall Rosenburg in Non-Violent Communication is only successfully communicating like 40% of the critical tech he's using.

Do you understand how e.g. Rari's USDC pool makes 20% APY?

  • Lending would require someone to be borrowing at rates higher than 20%, but why do that when you can borrow USDC at much lower rates? Or maybe the last marginal borrower is actually willing to take that rate? Then why does Aave give such low rates?
  • Providing liquidity would require an enormous amount of trades that I don't expect to be happening, but maybe I'm wrong

The only thing that my limited imagination can come up with is 'pyramid scheme', where you also get paid a small fraction of the mon... (read more)

2[comment deleted]

Yeah I think that mosquito map is showing the Zika-carrying species, but there are 40 other species in Washington. Mosquitos in New England (certainly Maine where I grew up) can be pretty brutal, especially when you include the weeks when the black flies and midges are also biting.

Faith

I've been playing around with this concept I call 'faith', which might also be called 'motivation' or 'confidence'. Warning: this is still a naive concept and might only be positive EV when used in conjunction with other tools which I won't mention here.

My current go-to example is exercising to build muscle: if I haven't successfully built muscle before, I'm probably uncertain about whether it's worth the effort to try. I don't have 'faith' that this whole project is worth it, and this can cause parts of me to (reasonably!) suggest that I don't put i... (read more)

some models against things getting worse

  1. Negative correlates: Country qualities that negatively correlate with conflict[1]
    1. Strong democratic institutions. Maybe because it makes lots of trusted non-violent avenues for change[2]
    2. Wealth[3]. Maybe you’re less likely to risk dying if you can meet your needs well enough with the current system
    3. Political representation[4]
    4. Being a developed country[5]
  2. Military: I think the overwhelming majority of groups would not want to fight the military, from PR risk[6] and dying risk[7]
  3. Ideology: Hard to get people to ra
... (read more)

some models for things getting worse

(I attempted to rank this list and the sub-lists from stronger to weaker models)

  1. Some pre-insurgency qualities
    1. More protests
      1. correlate with more conflict[1]
      2. create more opportunities
        1. for violent-leaning people to find each other and become more radicalized
        2. to evolve more virulent ideology
        3. to become better organized
    2. Already exist plenty of resources & training
      1. Highest guns per capita
      2. Lots of people with military experience - e.g. to source more weapons, to train recruits, and to fight effectively
    3. Shifting
... (read more)

Good point - I'm thinking political acts along the lines of violent protests, terrorism, and insurgencies. I can see how police shootings could be included there. The spirit of what I'm going for is how much change to expect, so e.g. deaths above and beyond what you would have in an average year

Here's a paper (posted 25 Feb) outlining neurological symptoms in 214 Chinese hospital patients:

  • 126 non-severe patients, 38 of which had 'neurologic symptoms'
    • 3 with impaired consciousness
    • 1 had an ischemic stroke
  • 88 severe patients, 40 of which had neurologic symptoms
    • 13 had impaired consciousness
    • 4 had an ischemic stroke, 1 cerebral hemorrhage

I don't know how much this differs from base rates - like if I have hypertension and need to go to the hospital because I broke my wrist, how likely is it that my brain also goes haywire? Or if I get a fever?

5jimrandomh
"Impaired consciousness" doesn't sound unusual for patients with severe fever, but five strokes out of 214 hospitalized patients is pretty noteworthy.

Did you end up finding one besides the MIDAS network, or develop your own? I'm assembling a parameter doc for inputs to a rough model that accounts for ventilator & hospital bed capacity, since it seems like we're lacking that.

  • I encourage folks to add parameters w/ citations to the doc, I'll be active on it for the next few days.
  • If anyone knows of models that incorporate actual healthcare capacity, please share!
6Pablo
Thanks for putting this list together. I stopped looking after Bucky supplied the link to the MIDAS network list, since it seemed so comprehensive. For models that incorporate actual healthcare capacity, see this thread. One limitation of the models I've seen is that they fail to account for growth in such capacity. China responded to the realization that they didn't have enough hospitals by quickly building more hospitals. Maybe Western countries are less competent than China and it will take them longer to build the needed capacity. But it seems implausible that they will be so incompetent that capacity-building efforts will not make a significant difference.

I've been a bit confused about doubling rate. First, I noticed that many numbers (e.g. Wikipedia) are calculating how long it took to double, instead of projecting forward using e.g. yesterday's increase. Early on this led to misleading numbers, but recently the US has been steady around 2-3 days using both methods.

However, I'm guessing that raw doubling rates depend a lot on testing, and that the US should expect to have a faster-than-actual doubling rate until our testing catches up. So I lean towards Trevor's number of 5 days.

Good point about LW affiliation - in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.

I'm still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it's a fun exercise so I've added some thoughts to the excel sheet.

1Drayin
Yes, the survey asks where you heard of it itself, and what groups you're a member of, and where you first heard of EA: LessWrong is a candidate for each. So you can make predictions for specific groups.