TLDR: You’re unsure about something. Then it happens—and you think to yourself, “I kinda expected that.” Such hindsight bias is commonly derided as irrational. But any Bayesian who (1) is unsure of exactly what they think, and (2) trusts their own judgment should exhibit hindsight bias. Biden is old. Ever...
TLDR: Things seem bad. But chart-wielding optimists keep telling us that things are better than they’ve ever been. What gives? Hypothesis: the point of conversation is to solve problems, so public discourse will focus on the problems—making us all think that things are worse than they are. A computational model...
TLDR: Which side is more responsive to political evidence? Some empirical studies suggest the left; others suggest the center. The debate is ongoing, but some very general dynamics imply that it’s probably the center. I am not a centrist. I am also biased. (Rationally so, I think.) Is that a...
TLDR: It’s often said that Bayesian updating is unbiased and converges to the truth—and, therefore, that biases must emerge from non-Bayesian sources. That's not quite right. The convergence results require updating on your total evidence—but for agents at all like us, that's impossible—instead, we must selectively attend to certain questions,...
TLDR: Rational people who start out uncertain about an (in fact independent) causal process and then learn from unbiased data will rule out “streaky” hypotheses more quickly than “switchy” hypotheses. As a result, they’ll commit the gambler’s fallacy: expecting the process to switch more than it will. In fact, they’ll...
TLDR: Why think your ideological opponents are unreasonable? Common reasons: their views are (1) absurd, or (2) refutable, or (3) baseless, or (4) conformist, or (5) irrational. None are convincing. Elizabeth is skeptical about the results of the 2020 election. Theo thinks Republicans are planning to institute a theocracy. Alan...
(Co-written with Bernhard Salow) TLDR: Differential legibility is a pervasive, persistent, and individually-rational source of unfair treatment. Either it’s a purely-structural injustice, or it’s a type of "zetetic injustice"—one requiring changes to our practices of inquiry. Finally, graduate admissions are done. Exciting. Exhausting. And suspicious. Yet again, applicants from prestigious,...