All of kostelny's Comments + Replies

I'm acutely aware of the cost the next day, but I consciously just pay it

what is this cost? Are you talking about late caffeine drinking disrupting your sleep?

7Valentine
No. I've become very physically aware of how caffeine borrows from my body's resources. There's always a need to recover later. After all, there was a reason my energy wasn't that high in the first place! So that reason comes home to roost. I also suspect I adapt to caffeine faster than average. I think I get a little dependent. My body growing a few more adenosine receptors. So the next day or two it has to notice that those aren't needed. But I think I'm just super aware of these energy fluctuations. Mostly because I trained my awareness to be this fine-tuned. I doubt I would have noticed the effects I'm talking about five years ago.

Assume p=0.5, q=0.8. Alice should bet d( (1-0.8)^2 - 0.5^2 ) = -0.21d. Am I missing something here?

5Scott Garrabrant
You are correct. There was a sign error that I didnt notice because the answer looked so similar to the one I knew was right from doing it before Thanks! It is corrected now