All of KristianRonn's Comments + Replies

It doesn't disprove the doomsday argument. It does offer an alternative explanation however. 
 

Why would a future civilization specifically choose to simulate many instances of the time we're currently in if it doesn't have a significance to that time period? 

Don't think they necessarily care about a specific time period. I think they care about: can they learn how the simulated beings interact with a new technology in a way that prevents them to repeat or mistakes. And it could be the case that our particular time is the most efficient to learn from (i.e. the time that happens right before you might go extinct).  

1Perry Cai
My understanding is that a future civilization must simulate this time period at a fraction greater than others in order for the explanation to be valid. If this is so and some civilization exists until the heat death of the universe, does that imply that technology has reached a point of asymptotic improvement so almost all future times are uniform, and we are going through one of the last great filters?

Good point.  Will add a bit of a better bridge for part 3 (that I hope to realease in a week). 

Thanks, Sebastian! One of the strongest arguments against the Fragility of Life Hypothesis is that evolution through natural selection may be meta-stable. If life is diverse enough, it becomes difficult for Kamikaze mutants to kill all forms of life.  As long as some life persists, competitive Lotka-Volterra equations suggest that populations in the ecosystem will stabilize after the catastrophy. 

However, the most reliable way to assess the true stability of life, free from survivorship bias, is likely through detailed evolutionary simulations and continued exploration for life within our solar system.

1Sebastian Schmidt
Interesting. I wasn't aware of the specific equations, but at a first glance, that does seem like a reasonable argument - thanks! Also, to follow up on my second comment (sorry, the formatting was a bit confusing but I just edited it): I think it would've been valuable for the blog post to end with a more concrete "bridge" to the solutions as the current version is fairly generic.

Thank you Maxime! Very cool to hear, and feel free to send me an email if you potential collaborations down the line. :) 

Good point. I will cover a lot of this in part 2. Essentially I think we are falling victim to survivorship bias. E.g. we will find ourselves in a place in the universe where cooperation is more common since it is needed for complex life and observers like us.

Thank you Seb! And you are correct! 😊

Yes, agreed. Teleology is still very useful in biology. Describing the above post with chemistry would be like describing a high level programing language using only NAND gates (I.e. not very useful).

1M. Y. Zuo
So of course ‘natural selection is not optimizing fitness’, since none of those things actually exist in the atoms, and electrons, and spacetime fabric, etc… that make up planet Earth. i.e. There are no ‘natural selection’ molecules to be found anywhere. And even the patterns are highly contingent on many factors, perhaps infinitely many, so they can’t be said to have discrete, separable, relationships in the literal sense. It’s just convenient shorthand to describe something many people believe to be sufficiently understood enough among their peers, that they can get away with skipping some mental steps and verbage.

Sure. It's an optimization process. At least in my vocabulary process and algorithm are more or less synonymous. But totally fine with calling it a process instead.

What in your mind are the wrong intuition created from calling it an algorithm?

habryka102

(I was objecting to Dan's point. I think evolution is both an optimization process and meaningfully described as an "optimization algorithm". I don't really know what Dan's point is, since the book he linked doesn't super agree with it, though it does provide nuance to the degree to which evolution could be described as an optimization process)

So natural selection is not optimizing fitness? Please elaborate. 😊

7Lycaos King
Strictly speaking there is no such thing as "natural selection" or "fitness" or "adaptation" or even "evolution". There are only patterns of physical objects, which increase or decrease in frequency over time in ways that are only loosely modeled by those terms.  But it's practically impossible to talk about physical systems without fudging a bit of teleology in, so I don't think it's a valid objection.