I'm dead sure you'd need more than 'just more than a doubling' for the payoff to make sense. Let's assume two things.
Before you even try to factor in the volatility co...
I would tend to give particular credence to any practice which pre-dates the printing press.
The reason is fairly straightforward. Spreading ideas was significantly more expensive, and often could only occur to the extent that holding the ideas made the carriers better adapted to their environments.
As the cost to spread an idea has become cheaper, humans can unfortunately afford to spread a great deal more pleasant (feel free to substitute reward hacking for pleasant) junk.
That doesn't mean failing to examine the ideas critically, but there are more than a ...
I'd missed that, thank you for pointing that out.
If "expected" effectively means what you're saying is that you're being offered a bet that is good by definition, that even at 50/50 odds, you take the bet, I suppose that's true. If the bet is static for a second flip, it wouldn't be a good deal, but if it dynamically altered such that it was once again a good bet by definition, I suppose you keep taking the bet.
If you're engaging with the uncertainty that people are bad at evaluating things like "expected utility" then at least some of the point is that ou... (read more)