LESSWRONG
LW

All of lordweiner27's Comments + Replies

You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
lordweiner2700

I agree. I can't comment on how rare or common it is though. But I'm certainly going to be careful not to lie when I inevitably end up in court.

Reply
The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom
lordweiner27140

Having review your evidence and some other evidence that I was pointed in the direction of I have to admit I may have been wrong. Knox and the other guy are probably innocent.

There were a few things that lead me to my original conclusion: -The DNA evidence -Amanda changing her story -My belief that it was ridiculous that the police would go to all this effort to frame them if they were innocent.

The DNA evidence has been refuted, I can't say I understand this but I'm willing to accept there is a lot of doubt there.

Amanda changing her story seems like... (read more)

Reply
-2Unknowns
That original theory was based on Knox's testimony-- at that point it wasn't unreasonable for the police to accept it.
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
lordweiner2700

Does anyone else think that if Knox is innocent she only has herself to blame for changing her story so many times and for implicating an innocent man?

Maybe that's harsh of me to say and if she is innocent she obviously doesn't deserve jail but it's kind of hard to feel sorry for her.

Reply
3kodos96
She has herself to blame, but not ONLY herself to blame. Lying to police, despite being innocent, is obviously an incredibly stupid thing to do... but not nearly as uncommon as TV and the movies would have you believe. When people are accused of serious crimes, they freak out and do stupid things, like enhance their alibi or come up with stories to explain away anything that looks incriminating, or wildly speculate about alternate theories of the crime. Stupid yes, rare no.
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
lordweiner2700
  1. Just because they were intoxicated doesn't mean they shouldn't be able to tell us where they were. I have never been drunk enough in my entire life to not remember what house I slept at. Have you?

The fact that no recording of the interrogations was ever released is incredibly damning.

So because the police were idiots and didn't record the interrogations that means they faked the evidence? What would be the police's motivation for faking the evidence?

My understanding from what I saw was that no evidence re: purchasing cleaning products was ever

... (read more)
Reply
3Jack
Intoxicated people as a rule have fuzzy and missing memories. I've definitely forgotten events when I've been drunk and I've had friends lose a couple hours of memory and wake up not knowing where they are. Maybe this isn't sufficient to explain the inconsistencies but it is once you combine it with scary, potentially abusive police yelling at and threatening them... well, I'd say some inaccurate testimony is to be expected. That said I'm having trouble with their story of the morning the body was discovered. Initially the police said they had lost the recording and later said they had never made one. In fact, they didn't even have a transcript of the the interrogation just a signed statement in flawless italian. These things "get lost" when the police realize the confession was coerced and won't hold up on appeal once people see the video tape. And are you really asking me why police would manufacture evidence to get a conviction? Like, are you kidding? If you want a motive unique to this case you might read the criticism of the Italian prosecutor. From the wikipedia page: It doesn't mean it didn't happen. It may have, I'm not convinced of their innocence. But the fact that it is on a contested wikipedia article is a terrible reason to take it as fact. Wikipedia is great for reading about the history of cheddar cheese, less so for answering questions about current, controversial and biasing events. Btw, did you really read the defense's site? Quoting: Finally: This was in the main section of the defense's site. Section 2.
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
lordweiner27-20

While there were more inconsistencies than I would have expected (judging just on the general fallibility of human memory), I felt that Knox's alibi of being exposed to extended interrogation was enough to account for the inconsistencies.

I don't. She changed her story at least three times. And I'm sorry but if I was an innocent suspect in a murder trial you'd have to rape me up the arse with a barb wire dildo to get me to change my story from the truth.

Reply
2Tyrrell_McAllister
But the question is, are you typical in that respect? That's not so clear.
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
lordweiner2700

The wikipedia article states that Guede was known to the couple and to the others in their house.

Reply
0mattnewport
The Wikipedia page seems to be changing quite a lot at the moment. The impression I got from the various sources was that Guede was acquainted with the people who lived on the 1st floor of the building (not house mates but neighbours of Knox and the victim) and Knox said she recognized him but that Sollecito claimed never to have met him. I haven't seen any claims that they were friends but there was an eye witness who claimed to have seen them together. There seems to be some dispute over whether they had ever previously met or talked with each other but no claim from the prosecution that there was any kind of longer term association between them prior to the murder.
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
lordweiner2710

Sure this type of murder is rare, otherwise it wouldn't have made the news. That's not evidence the other two aren't guilty. Not when we have her hand on the knife and his foot in her blood.

Reply
You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event
lordweiner2720

Amanda Knox being Guilty: 90%

Raffaele Sollecito being Guilty 90%

Rudy Guede being guilty: 90%

I hope you agree with me because no one else in the comments seem too. I'm gonna give the probability of you agreeing with me 75% based on my own arrogance and belief that I'm right and based and little else really.

Most people seem to believe Rudy Guede is guilty so lets skip that and look at the other two. They've changed their stories and have been proven to have lied quite a few times. For example Rudy at one point said he was at home surfing the internet b... (read more)

Reply
0Blueberry
Downvoted for poor spelling.
8imaxwell
Do you really find it equally likely that Knox/Sollecito are guilty as you do that Guede is guilty? It seems like most of the weight should be given to Knox-Sollecito-Guede and Guede as possibilities, so unless you think the probability of Guede acting alone is very close to zero, this is sort of bizarre. In particular, it indicates that your P(KSG | G) is very close to 100%.
1Jack
1. The statements were obviously coerced and Knox and Sollecito were intoxicated during the period in question, it isn't surprising they have given inconsistent and contradictory stories.The fact that no recording of the interrogations was ever released is incredibly damning. 2. My understanding from what I saw was that no evidence re: purchasing cleaning products was ever introduced. 3. Did you read the arguments countering the DNA evidence? Was this luminaled or visible? I might have missed this piece of evidence. Also, I wasn't at all convinced there was any clean-up afterward.