All of Lunin's Comments + Replies

There is a third alternative. Observed universe is limited, the probability of life arising from non-living matter is low, suitable planets are rare, evolution doesn't directly optimize for intelligence. Civilizations advanced enough to build strong AI are probably just too rare to appear in our light cone.

We could have already passed the 'Gread Filter' by actually existing in the first place.

3Stuart_Armstrong
Yes, that's exactly what an early great filter means.

Some property X is 'banal' if X applies to a lot of people in an disappointingly mundane way, not having any redeeming features which would make it more rare (and, hence, interesting). In the other words, X is banal iff base rate of X is high. Or, you can say, prior probability of X is high.

I doubt that (widespread belief) <=> (high prior probability). If a statement is believed and considered obvious by a lot of people, it can be really obvious and true. Or it can be a wrong cached thought. Or just a common misconception.

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