mako yass

> Trillions of dollars are flowing into AI, and there is almost nowhere to trade it. > > There’s no exchange for hyperscalers to hedge their $100M training runs. No benchmark markets to bet on the speed of AI progress. No public markets on OpenAI despite them being worth more...

I recently argued for Cohabitive Games, games that are designed for practicing negotiation, or for developing intuitions for applied cooperative bargaining, which is one of the names of preference aggregation. I offered the assets for P1, my prototype, to whoever was interested. About 20 people asked for them. I told...

Basically, the user is shown a splatter of colored circles, then the splatter is hidden, and then they're asked to remember what proportion of the splatter was a particular color. To get good at it, they'd have to get good at accurately perceiving and remembering features of entire distributions. Obvious...

A Sensayer is[1] a specialist in the private discussion of religion[2] in small groups, or one on one, a bit like a councilor with theological acumen. Many of us, believe it or not, harbor private beliefs. Sometimes those beliefs get heavy, and they can often benefit a lot from a...

> Sylvia is a philosopher of science. Her focus is probability and she has worked on a few theories that aim to extend and modify the standard axioms of probability in order to tackle paradoxes related to infinite spaces. In particular there is a paradox of the "infinite fair lottery"...

An entry-level characterization of some types of guy in decision theory, and in real life, interspersed with short stories about them A concave function bends down. A convex function bends up. A linear function does neither. Decisionmaking agents have utility functions. A utility function is just a mapping from conditions...

In short: Just keeping all copies of potentially strong agents in long-term storage is a trivial way to maintain incentives to cooperate for some classes of misaligned AGI, by allowing us to reward the AGI's cooperation to whatever degree we later calculate had been warranted. In contrast, a policy of...