And it underscores for me that conditional prediction markets should almost never be taken seriously, and indicates that only the most liquid markets in general should ever be cited.
This conclusion seems too strong. For almost all of those options the probability of resolving N/A was very high, so the incentive to correct the price was low. That's not true of many conditional markets, like "If Republicans/Democrats win the presidency, will border crossings be above [number]", and then the probability of resolving N/A is more like 50% and the incentive to c... (read more)
This conclusion seems too strong. For almost all of those options the probability of resolving N/A was very high, so the incentive to correct the price was low. That's not true of many conditional markets, like "If Republicans/Democrats win the presidency, will border crossings be above [number]", and then the probability of resolving N/A is more like 50% and the incentive to c... (read more)