All of Matthew Green's Comments + Replies

It's strange reading all of these comments discussing what actions by environmental groups led to partisanship, without anyone discussing the extensive lobbying and financial influence of the fossil fuel industry and other polluting industries. It's like trying to discuss the orbital motions of the planets based on the gravitational impact of their moons, but without acknowledging the existence of the Sun.

2Jeffrey Heninger
From the introduction to the last post in this sequence:  The motivation for this report was to learn what the AI safety movement should do to keep from becoming partisan. 'Meta doesn't lobby the government' isn't an action the AI safety movement can take.

Isn’t the “too palatable food” theory ridiculously easy to test, once you define what “too palatable” means? Assuming that we grant the “obesity epidemic is caused by changes in diet over the 20th century” you’d just need to switch people to an unrestricted-calorie diet that mirrors the homemade foods that our ancestors ate in the early 1900s and see if their satiety plummeted. (Here in the US that would still be a pretty diverse and filling diet that includes lots of meat, potatoes and pie.) I am skeptical that this would work (at the effect size needed to explain the obesity epidemic) but I’d love to see it tested.

1Kenny
The 'components' of our diet, e.g. meat, potatoes, etc., are very different now than earlier, and more different over the last 100 years than prior periods too. I suspect people that are doing diets like this tho are much less obese, e.g. the Amish.
7Natália
This metabolic ward study by Kevin Hall et al. found what the hyperpalatability hypothesis would expect. 

Is there any solid evidence that walking 25k steps per day will solve the obesity epidemic? I ask this because it’s genuinely a remarkable claim, one that if verified and implemented would save huge numbers of lives and hundreds of billions in medical expenses. The literature mostly seems to indicate that increased exercise doesn’t have dramatic effects on obesity.

1David Gretzschel
There is not. That's why I was asking him if he knows. I was not interested in the effect of exercise. Exercise means, you do some activity a couple times per week. I'm interested whether the obesety epidemic only affects the sedentary populatrion. And if being or becoming non-sedentary is protective or curative. 25k steps for me means, that my treadmill is running constantly when I'm on my computer. This is not really exercise. Movement is just my default state. In that way, I have become closer to what an EAA-hunter-gatherer, than to a sedentary office worker does with his body.  [or I would, if this had been my lifetime norm instead of something I still get used to] If the human body was sold as a machine, the sedentary lifestyle probably would void your warranty, because it's rather extreme (dis)usage. Sedentary people being unhealthy is not surprising. It's surprising that some sedentary people aren't. Anyway, "being in near-constant motion" is too specific/complicated a metric.  So I'd just look for a step count high enough, that's only feasibly doable by a non-sedentary person like me. Though, I guess any daily jogger can probably match or exceed 25k steps per day. The group of people whose 80th quantile waking hour still has >1k steps. That's probably the better proxy, come to think of it.

This sounds like a pretty intense restriction diet that also happens to be unpalatable. But the palatable foods hypothesis (as an explanation for the obesity epidemic) isn’t “our grandparents used to only eat beans and vegan sausages and now we eat a more palatable diet, hence obesity.” It’s something much more specific about the palatability of our modern 20th/21st century diet vs. the early 20th century diet, isn’t it? What’s the hypothesis we could test that would actually help us judge that claim without inadvertently removing most food groups and confounding everything?

3TAG
I've heard that combinations of fat and sugar are particularly superstimulating.