All of maxweber's Comments + Replies

maxweber-10

UN says 1.4B people don't use electricity. What happens in "modern" world doesn't affect them much. Reproduction rate for many animals is faster than cancer rate in Chyernoble from what I remember; so, even nukes might not really destroy those folks. Plus, many are outside the realms of major effect. So, clearly, North Americans who do not prep will be in trouble (just as non-NAZI's in Germany); but, aboriginees probably don't need to prep. I'd say a prepper in USA has a 75% chance of survival whereas a non-prepper a 0.5%. (Given my expectation t... (read more)

0TheOtherDave
OK. So on your account it follows that if N% of the U.S. population comprises preppers, then after a nuclear event we should expect to see ~1.4B "non-modern" people, (.005*[1-N]*us_pop) non-prepping USAers, and (.75*N*us_pop) prepping USAers, among others. After some other scenarios we should expect to see ~1.4B "non-modern" people, (.2*[1-N]*us_pop) non-prepping USAers, and (.95*N*us_pop) prepping USAers, among others. Yes? So, OK. If us_pop is 315486161 and N is 0% then in the first scenario we expect the survivors to include (.005*1*315486161=) ~1.6 million USAers and in the second scenario we expect the survivors to include (.2*1*315486161=) 63 million USAers. At the other extreme, if N is 100%, then in the first scenario we expect the survivors to include (.75*1*us_pop=) 237 million USAers and in the second scenario we expect the survivors to include (.95*1*us_pop) 300 million USAers. In all of these scenarios we also expect the survivors to include ~1.4B non-"modern" people, plus some modern survivors not from the U.S. Yes? Given those estimates, and assuming that the referents for your "prepper" and JMIV's "crazy survivalist" are roughly comparable, I don't find myself caring very much about Ns smaller than about 1%.

intellect implication applied to economic hostile forces imply they either do not view their activities as financial nukes or they believe they will survive unscathed and not need a bunker. ;-) Based on UN forces on the ground in USA, non-military departments building up military powers, and other activities, the latter is the probable case.

Welp. One thing is most people built fallout shelters (build bugout bunkers) for their families; so, maybe that's not directly "personal safety". At any rate, there is also a general belief among preppers that they are a set of people, a group inspired to be prepared; this generally also defines those who do not prep as not prepared. So, you are talking about society but the preppers see two societies. The preppers have websites, books, tv shows, and more. Just as an Army prepares in units, those who built a fall-out shelter were not preparing i... (read more)

0bsterrett
Could you state the relationship more explicitly? Your implication is not clear to me.