All of MerleRideout's Comments + Replies

Why? What negative result follows when you assign probability zero to something? I haven't consciously experienced any so far.

7JoshuaZ
It might help to read the linked essay in my previous comment. When one assigns probability 0 or 1 to something, one cannot update based on evidence. That is, if one really believes that, there should be no amount of evidence that will convince you. That's problematic if one is trying to be a rationalist. And if there is some amount of evidence that can convince you then you don't really assign probability 0 or 1 to the claim.

I'm pretty familiar with this case having read a couple of books about it and followed both of the websites listed and a few others.

I would say there is 0 chance of Knox or Sollecito being involved in the murder at all. They have no motive. The prosecution completely failed to show that they had ever participated in "sex games" together or with different partners in the past. There is no evidence of either of them at the crime scene at the time of the crime. None of their past behaviors make them likely candidates to commit this type of crime. Ev... (read more)

5JoshuaZ
Assigning probability zero to something is not in general a good idea.