Mike Bishop

Seeking examples of people smarter than me who got hung up

I'm looking for historical examples of scientists who were a) very intelligent and still b) continued to put themselves behind a theory in their discipline long after it was rejected. Maybe they got too attached to it, refused to be wrong, got emotional, but they somehow let their hangups get in the way. Maybe I'm being too demanding, but if you can resist, give me fewer cranks, pseudoscience, and wierd sociopolitical commitments and more theories that were credible until they became incredible to all but their big fancy until-then-respected proponent. To get you started: * Fred Hoyle against the Big Bang * Lord Kelvin and Hoyle on microbes from spce * Tesla against relativity and other chunks of modern physics. * Heaviside against relativity * George Gaylord Simpson against plate tectonics * Newton on alchemy More? Posted on behalf of a friend. Thanks.

13Jan 13, 2013

Test your forecasting ability, contribute to the science of human judgment

5May 5, 2012

The Value of Uncertainty Reduction - references to academic literature appreciated

4Apr 29, 2014

Software for Critical Thinking, Prof. Geoff Cumming

4Mar 30, 2011

Mike Bishop

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Superforecaster, social science, metascience, data science. USA & Canada.

On Twitter or BlueSky you'd find me @thatMikeBishop

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17y

The Value of Uncertainty Reduction - references to academic literature appreciated

My intuition (probably widely shared) suggests that uncertainty about the future is stress inducing and reducing uncertainty about the future is helpful because it allows us to plan. So I started trying to invent thought experiments that would begin to help me quantify how much I (and others) value uncertainty...

Apr 29, 20144

Seeking examples of people smarter than me who got hung up

Jan 13, 201313

Test your forecasting ability, contribute to the science of human judgment

As XFrequentist mentioned last August, "Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA) with the goal of improving forecasting methods for global events of national (US) interest. One of the teams (The Good Judgement Team) is recruiting volunteers to have their forecasts tracked. Volunteers will receive an annual honorarium ($150), and it...

May 5, 20125

Software for Critical Thinking, Prof. Geoff Cumming

Prof. Geoff Cumming has done some interesting work. Of particular relevance to the LW community, he has studied software for enhancing critical thinking. > My past research: I worked on Computer tools for enhancing critical thinking, with Tim van Gelder. We studied argument mapping, and Tim’s wonderful Reason!Able software for...

Mar 30, 20114

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Mike Bishop

Mike Bishop

Mike Bishop

Seeking examples of people smarter than me who got hung up

Test your forecasting ability, contribute to the science of human judgment

The Value of Uncertainty Reduction - references to academic literature appreciated

Software for Critical Thinking, Prof. Geoff Cumming

Mike Bishop

The Value of Uncertainty Reduction - references to academic literature appreciated

Seeking examples of people smarter than me who got hung up

Test your forecasting ability, contribute to the science of human judgment

Software for Critical Thinking, Prof. Geoff Cumming

Seeking examples of people smarter than me who got hung up

Test your forecasting ability, contribute to the science of human judgment

The Value of Uncertainty Reduction - references to academic literature appreciated

Software for Critical Thinking, Prof. Geoff Cumming

The Value of Uncertainty Reduction - references to academic literature appreciated

Seeking examples of people smarter than me who got hung up

Test your forecasting ability, contribute to the science of human judgment

Software for Critical Thinking, Prof. Geoff Cumming