All of Mizue's Comments + Replies

Mizue30

There's no reason to think that there's a teapot-shaped asteroid resembling Russell's teapot either.

And I'm pretty sure we haven't looked for one, either. Yet it would be ludicrous to treat it as if it had a substantial probability of existing.

-1Azathoth123
A prior eating most things is a bad idea. Thus the burden is on the GMO advocates to show their products are safe.
Mizue40

The Wikipedia article listing number of neurons in the cerebral cortex shows humans as significantly higher than whales, even though raw brain size may look better for whales. Wikipedia also describes an encephalization quotient which takes account of the fact that the brain is used for bodily functions, and on which whales don't score as highly as they may seem to from brain size.

1private_messaging
Yeah, that's quite interesting. Raises the question though, why do they not have more neurons? They do have larger glia to neuron ratios, it's not like everything's simply bigger. Perhaps aquatic environment simply doesn't reward intelligence that much. Well, the bodily functions are the same but occurring at a lower rate, for a larger mammal. Most of whale's body is fat, anyhow, which doesn't need to be controlled by brain, and it's not generally the case that people drop many IQ points when they become overweight. Nor are smaller people with same sized heads more intelligent. edit: on the other hand, EQ may be a (very crude) measure of how well brain tissue pays off for an animal. If you have high quality brain tissue and you're in a complex environment, at the equilibrium between costs and benefits you would haul around more brain mass per body mass. With the obvious caveat that this tradeoff is very different between land animals, flying animals, and aquatic animals.
Mizue40

Doing everything it takes to achieve some result, rather than just following the rules, creates perverse incentives for other people to slack off because they know that you will do whatever it takes.

It may still be a good idea when the consequences of not getting the result are so bad that even the negative effect of the perverse incentive isn't as bad, but that usually happens only with superheroes and Harry Potter-like characters.

Also, Batman is not so much defined by taking action, but by plot armor.

Nornagest110

It can also create unsustainable expectations, which can be just as bad.

I once worked for a company that got bitten badly by this. Just after it left the startup stage, it got slapped with a contract that it realistically couldn't have met on time. Unwilling to accept this, the engineering team chose to do whatever it took to get the product out the door; one senior engineer in particular, a friend of mine, put in hundred-hour weeks to implement key features. And they succeeded. I probably wouldn't have gotten hired if they hadn't -- I came in just aft... (read more)

Mizue30

I think there's a difference between "does no harm, because it had a substantial chance of doing harm, but someone got lucky", and "does no harm, and the chance of harm wasn't ever substantial to begin with".

Mizue-10

Replacing food with Soylent is weird. Perhaps in your social circle it's a plausible thing to do, but I'm pretty certain that most people would think it's a bizarre thing to do regardless of what certain geek social circles might think.

In fact, that's my impression of lots of LW-style ideas, such as cryonics and SI-style AI research.

Rationality always works when it is done perfectly. But it's incredibly easy to miss something and come to a weird conclusion by pure rationality. And being partly rational can be pretty bad when irrationality has evolved ch... (read more)

1advancedatheist
And also potentially dangerous to your health. The idea of a uniform "human chow" makes sense and has legitimate uses, and we have a paleo precedent in pemmican, which has a reputation for sustaining people in polar environments in good health when they didn't have access to fresh food. But then pemmican uses natural ingredients. By contrast, I worry about ingesting Soylent if the recipes incorporate the wrong stereoisomers of synthetic organic molecules that the body's enzymes won't bind to for metabolism. Uh, guys. LW didn't invent cryonics. And for some reason it hasn't registered even with most cryonicists that some neuroscientists think that cryonics deserves a second look because they have the tools now to study the integrity of attempts to preserve the brain's connectome. Refer to the website of the Brain Preservation Foundation.
2Adam Zerner
1) I don't care if it's weird. In fact, I take pride in doing something that's rational that others think is weird. 2) I think you're right about rationality coming to weird conclusions and that being partly rational is can be bad. But that doesn't mean it's automatically bad. I think you need more evidence than "it's perfectly sensible--here but people outside this circle of atypical minds would find it ludicrous". At the very least, that map is very high level and not very precise.
Mizue30

Is "approved as a food" like those fake star naming companies which claim that that the star names are in the library of Congress?

The FDA approving it as a food doesn't mean the FDA approves of it being consumed in a specific way. I'm pretty sure ketchup is approved as a food too, but that doesn't mean you can drink a bottle of it for lunch each day and stay healthy.

Mizue30

If I remember right Taleb makes somewhere the point that the word believe derives from a word that means trust.

I often see this argument from religions themselves or similar sources, not from those opposed to religion. Not this specific argument, but this type of argument--the idea of using the etymology of a word to prove something about the concept represented by the word. As we know or should know, a word's etymology may not necessarily have much of a connection to what it means or how it is used today. ("malaria" means "bad air&quo... (read more)

1ChristianKl
In this case the debate is about how people in the past thought about religion. Looking at etymology helps for that purpose. But that not the most important part of my argument. It can also help to illustrate ideas. Taleb basically says that religion1 is a very useful concept. New atheists spend energy arguing that religion2 is a bad concept. That's pointless if they want to convince someone who believes in religion1. If they don't want to argue against a strawman they actually have to switch to talking about religion1. In general when someone says: "We should do A.", that person has freedom to define what he means with A. It's not a matter of searching for Bayesian evidence. It's a matter of defining a concept. If you want to define A saying: A is a bit like B in regard X and like C in regard Y is quite useful. Looking at etymology can help with that quest. Overestimating the ability to understand what the other person means is a common failure mode. If you aren't clear about concepts than looking at evidence to validate concepts isn't productive.
Mizue20

I'd expect the answer to be similar to an analogous situation involving birth. If everyone had more children than they could afford to raise, society would collapse. We like to think that since the children are not responsible for their situation, we as a society would choose to support them, but this only is possible because the number of people who have children and demand that society support them is limited. At some point the drain on resources would make it impossible to support them as a society, and we would have to let them starve, and/or not pe... (read more)

Mizue50

I meant that nobody accuses people awed by airplanes of being arrogant; I didn't mean that nobody is awed by airplanes.

(BTW, I wouldn't be surprised if Edison did say something similar; he was notorious for self-promotion.)

Mizue100

Airplanes may not work on fusion or weigh millions of tons, but still, substituting a few words in I could say similar things about airplanes. Or electrical grids. Or smallpox vaccination. But nobody does.

Hypothesis: he has an emotional reaction to the way nuclear weapons are used--he thinks that is arrogant--and he's letting those emotions bleed into his reaction to nuclear weapons themselves.

4John_Maxwell
Are you sure? I looked for just a bit and found http://inventors.about.com/od/wstartinventors/a/Quotes-Wright-Brothers.htm I imagine if inventors have bombastic things to say about the things they invent, then frequently keep those thoughts to oneself to avoid sounding arrogant (e.g. I don't think it would have gone over well if Edison had started referring to himself as "Edison, the man who lit the world of the night").
Mizue30

I think (it's not my post) that it's supposed to be evidence that numbers are real because the set of all possible minds is vast. Because there are so many possible minds, it's unlikely that a mind chosen randomly from that set would have similar intuitions about numbers to mine. It's even more unlikely that a third mind would also have those intuitions. Yet, for some reason, this vastly unlikely thing happens anyway. This implies that there is some reason which is responsible for all the minds feeling the same way. One such reason would be "the ... (read more)

3piero
Though the number of possible minds is vast, I think the likelihood of two minds sharing an intuitive concept of number is high, because minds (or perhaps I should say consciousnesses) process information sequentially. Perhaps it is akin to the shared perception of rhythm, which is not limited to human minds. I suppose you have already seen it, but this video is amazing: the dancing cockattoo.
Mizue10

Wouldn't a lot of either standard best practices or cutting edge research fall under what is considered "dark arts" here? So this really becomes "you can use Dark Arts for good purposes". Whether you should do so seems at least questionable, although I can see some arguments for it (such as when you need to use it to get rid of the effect of biases or to oppose someone else's dark arts).

1Luke_A_Somers
This doesn't seem like 'dark arts' as knowing who to talk to, which seems more to fall under general effectiveness.
Mizue20

Ooh, I get to comment.

A particular dull explanation is more likely than a particular exciting one. But it is possible that dull explanations, in general, are not more likely than exciting ones, in general, because there might be more of the exciting explanations even though each individual one is less likely.

(This is not typical--if you have cold symptoms, you probably have a cold and not an exotic disease--but it's possible.)

1ishi
Comments--- 1. 2 sayings i like (relevant to the nerd issue) are 'I love humanity, i just hate people' and (for those of use who could be called 'elites' as distinct from the commoners ) 'I wouldn't me a member of any group that would me as a member' (Mark Twain). I'm not that convinced of the 'broken brain theory'. I tend to think in terms like 'frequency dependence' in biology or 'division of labor' in economics. Not everyone is the same, and there are reasons for that. (This is related also to the 'pigeonhole principle' and things like the existance of 'runts' in dog litters, various forms of hierarchies----in the real world, not everyone is in reaching distance of the same set of resources. Some don't get to sit in a warm place next to the fire, and so adapt to the cold. (And, very often, when occassionaly they get invited to be in the heat, since they have learned to live in, and even enjoy the cold, they are considered antisocial, rude and disturbed if they don't accept the invitation (eg 'you can take this job, or seat, and shove it'). Or if you invite people to consider coming into the cold, that will be considered insanity. (This goes for other things too---if you decide religion is very narrow, boring, intolerant etc. but then one day the confgregation decides that, since they are losing members and tithes, they will 'lighten up' and invite you back (but again on their slightly revised terms---eg they won't preach that you are going to hell, but will still tell you to shut up why they preach to you the truth which you know nothing about). If you decide your peer group who does nothing but bar hop is boring and find new activities, when they see you again and say 'hey come on, lets party' they will say 'you've really changed and are no fun anymore, unlike us party animals'. Darwin was probably a nerd and didnt attend church (or half heartedly, mostly for show). Einstein wasn't a big zionist type studying the torah and waiting to return to the pro