All of neotoky01's Comments + Replies

There are usually spots available south of Berkeley campus; along the streets that go North/South. Ellsworth, Dana, and Fulton street are my go-to; and it's good to check the streets that intersect them. Here's an example address of what I mean: 2339 Ellsworth St, Berkeley, CA 94704. From there its a 10 min walk to the Life Sciences building.

The microbiome is one of the newest branch of science in human health. There are some phenomenal preliminary reports that much of our health is influenced by our microbiome, but it hasn't yet reached wide social recognition in the US. You're not missing anything; you're on the bleeding edge of medical science. 

So if you had 10,000 dollars, you would buy all 10,000 lottery tickets to win the grand prize of $9,900?

Whenever you're investing you always want to use compound interest. $10,000 invested would give you a grand total of $43,219 after 30 years with 5% yearly compound interest.  
https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator

Finally there is an increased marginal utility the less money you have, not more. So when you have $0, each additional dollar gives a large marginal utility; whereas when you have $10,0... (read more)

You should always be looking for ways to maximize the return on your investment. If you spend a dollar, you'll want to receive one dollar or more of value. Buying a dollar lottery ticket returns less than a dollar of value.

It seems Kohlberg is primarily concerned with moral/cultural behaviour, what an individual may think is the right thing to do. Undeniably the desire to follow the group is strong. What is the relevance in the context of teaching rationality and scientific skepticism? No doubt, if your local environment teaches that science and rationality are weird and strange, and you're a nerd for attempting it learn it, there exists social pressure against learning science. But I still can't escape the fact that the great majority of people are attempting science and ra... (read more)

1alexgieg
The study about cognitive stages points that they're much stronger than a desire. They're the way a person's brain is wired at every point of their development. Someone at a stage 'n' literally feels, perceives and interacts the world that way. They may know, by descriptions from others, or, if they have a very high IQ, through observation of patterns in others, that others feel, perceive and interact with the world in different ways, but this is, for them, merely a piece of data, not something they can act upon, except for one instance: that of trying hard to grow into the stage immediately above one's own. But there's no guarantee of success in this, as it seems there are biological limitations to this. It'd be like trying hard to grow another 5 IQ points: unless you already have some untapped potential to do this, it simply isn't possible. This teaching would need to be split into at least 4 different layers: a new one for high IQ individuals at stage 2; another for individuals at stage 3; another for those at stage 4; and finally the current one, which is more appropriate for individuals at stage 5 -- which, incidentally, is the stage most rationalists are at, hence their bias in producing content mostly appropriate and convincing to others at their own stage. That's precisely why it's ineffective. Stages 5 and 6 comprise about 6% of the population. Therefore, even if current rationality teaching methods were perfectly effective, reaching and influencing all of its target audience, that'd mean a world with 6% of actual rationalists. Plus a varying contingent of stages 2 to 4 non-actually-rationalists "groupthink-influenced" by those rationalists in an indirect, ad hoc manner, rather than through actual rationality training and adoption, since such a direct approach, targeted at those stages, their strengths and weaknesses, is neither available, nor being pursued.

I think part of the difficulty I have in understanding your post is the distinction between active and passive systems, and it's why I linked the article on emergence. No matter which way I think about it, I can't disentangle a living (organic) system from its surrounding environment. It's why I posed the question of what distinguishes living systems and non-living systems; when I look deep enough I still see the same fundamental rules of physics applied in each instance. 

Under this view that all matter, living and non-living is indistinguishable and ... (read more)

4Gordon Seidoh Worley
Yes, that's part of it. As to what is "local", that's a question of where we draw boundaries, and in fact this gets at an issue fundamental to all of this, which is we have to have some way to even draw these boundaries. That's a free variable that has to be fixed, ironically, by telos.

What data? Where is the evidence? Where is your evidence that your model actually coincides and explains reality? At least Sagan was on the front line of his work; he actually worked with children, he spoke to people, he had direct and personal experience with trying to teach science and rationality. That's very strong evidence. Is your evidence stronger than Sagans, Feynmans, Dawkins, and Hawkins?

1alexgieg
Here are two abstracts from the References section in the link I provided. These, plus the other papers referenced, probably suffice to establish the basis upon which I inferred, although I'm open to suggestions for other, maybe better, ways to generalize it: -- Colby, Anne; Gibbs, J.; Lieberman, M.; Kohlberg, L. (1983). A Longitudinal Study of Moral Judgment: A Monograph for the Society of Research in Child Development. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. ISBN 978-99932-7-870-2. -- Walker, Lawrence, J. (February 1989). A longitudinal study of moral reasoning. Child Development. 60 (1): 157–166. doi:10.2307/1131081. JSTOR 1131081. PMID 2702866. Kohlberg's developmental stages theory is one of the most tested, subjected to falsification attempts, and well corroborated psychological theories of the last 60 years. Knowing it, and how the stages are distributed (among adults it follows a normal distribution), provides a solid auxiliary reference point to, e.g., reasonings based on IQ distribution, and what it implies for rationality efforts and related subject areas. Now, I don't actually know whether Sagan, Feynman, Dawkins, or Hawkins incorporated the results of modern, well supported Neo-Piagetian studies such as Kohlberg's in their own psycho-social models and proposal. Maybe they did, and those results are already accounted for in their reasoning. But if they didn't, then I think we may think of those proposals as lacking key information and, by extension, effectiveness.

But your original post implied a sort of scientific nihilism. 

>That is, no matter what I believe about the world, it will always be just the way it is regardless of how I feel about it or how I want it to be.

Your beliefs affect your actions, even if it's so small that it's hard to register. Being a skeptic in anything may make your face contort in such a way that it resembles incredulity; changing how others view the topic and how the talker responds to you. I think what you really mean is that you have better understood the order of magnitude that... (read more)

4Gordon Seidoh Worley
Alas, I can't cram a full understanding of the world into just a few short sentences, and the moment I say anything at all I necessarily say something wrong. Yes, what I present above emphasizes a particular aspect of our existence. As you say, how I feel about things and how I want things to be are real processes in the universe that have downstream effects. It's also true I can't make a cake appear before me by closing my eyes and wishing really hard that I had a cake.

Again, what is the difference between living things and non-living things from a first principles physics perspective. At which point do atoms and molecules become "living"? At which point do atoms and molecules acquire purpose? 

I understand that we use words like living and purpose to denote large movements of atoms moving in complex and interesting ways. But at no point along the way does something acquire "livingness" or "purposeness" or "spirit" or "elan vital" or "emergence" (see Eliezer Yudkowsky on emergence). If we're going to try to understand the behaviour of organisms it's necessary to see that the behaviour of organisms is just trillions of atoms and molecules behaving in very interesting ways. 

2Gordon Seidoh Worley
This is asking for quite a lot of answer, but also mostly seems beside the point of this post. If the question is just about the terms considered, "active" would seem to clearly be about how much the energy in the system is being fed to it vs. being generated by it. "Purpose", as I propose, is about thermodynamics and whether entropy is increasing or decreasing. "Teleology" is about feedback, which I wrote about here. But I'm not sure what your real objection is here since nothing I wrote contradicts the idea that the world is just made up of stuff and nothing is possessed of any essential nature. Yet there is in fact some point at which the world takes on enough local structure that we place it in some category, otherwise we wouldn't be able to use words at all. So I'm not sure how to read your objection other than you don't like the word "purpose"?

A meta-productivity system would be using a productivity system to find and explore productivity systems. I don't think that works by the nature of what a productivity system is. Fundamentally, you're always trying to be more productive. That is your ultimate goal. Trying out new methods and ways of thinking is beneficial to your future productivity, because you may find something that works better for you, and so you implement it. But you never really lose the "trying out new methods and ways of thinking" part; that's just necessary for progress. 

2Matt Goldenberg
That's one way to go meta, another would be to "Change the way you approach, think about, and frame productivity systems" which this is.

Sure, I will grant that, in certain extreme examples where a person's specific genome makes them much more anxious and much more depressed, then maybe some unscientific beliefs may improve their day-to-day functioning. But I think overwhelmingly this is not the case, and that while people may suffer from anxiety stress and depression, a greater understanding of reality can help you resolve those problems.

Overwhelmingly, people are born with a knack for science. The natural curiosity of children to explore, touch, smell, taste, and feel are fundamental to s... (read more)

1alexgieg
That's a noble ideal, but it doesn't fit with the data we have. Groupthink isn't an option, it's a necessary developmental stage almost everyone goes through, those who don't being those who're stuck at a pre-groupthinking cognitive developmental stage. Overcoming groupthink, in turn, requires not only nurture, but also nature, as it seems to require the brain to have the potential for post-groupthink reasoning, which in turn can then be realized. For information on these numbers, and the studies on it, I suggest you begin by the best experimentally supported of the family of Neo-Piagetian psychological theories, Lawrence Kohlberg's Stages of Moral Development, then branch from it. Those will provide you a more solid base on which better fit most of Sagan's hope, and on what needs done around it for it to, someday, become actually viable.

There is a distinction between joining a group for the sake of joining a group and acquiring status, and joining a group because it offers you companionship, friendly competition, and entertainment. The feeling of status and of being a high-ranking person is a good feeling, most people feel this way. I don't think the question is whether this feeling is good or bad, whether we should feel this way at all; it's a question of time. How much time will it take to acquire that status? Is there a better way you can invest your time? If joining an in-group gives ... (read more)

Having faith is a religious virtue, it's not a virtue in science. As a scientist, all your beliefs should be conditional and updated on new evidence; there is no place for blind faith. Even deferring to authority is a conditional action: you are deferring your beliefs because you believe the authority to be more competent or knowledgeable because you have a lot of prior experience of them being a competent leader. If your authority suddenly becomes incredibly incompetent, it's time to update, and decide whether you'll defer the next time.

neotoky01*-10

That is, no matter what I believe about the world, it will always be just the way it is regardless of how I feel about it or how I want it to be.

So individual humans have no appreciable affect on the world?

4Gordon Seidoh Worley
Of course they do, but those effects don't happen by simply believing they will happen. Believing something doesn't change the world; acting does.

You are suggesting a productivity system. You have systematically tried various productivity systems over the years, and you've finally found one that works for you. Suggesting that someone think a certain way, or not think a certain way to increase their productivity is a productivity system. 

2Matt Goldenberg
Good summary! I might further clarify by saying something like "You have been relating to your productivity systems in a certain way (a meta-productivity system if you will) and this post suggests you relate to your productivity systems in a new way (replaces your meta-productivity system."

Fundamentally, from the perspective of physics, what is the difference between animate matter and inanimate matter? Living things/non-living things? At which point does a non-living thing become a living thing?

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8QzZKw9WHRxjR4948/the-futility-of-emergence

1Gordon Seidoh Worley
Well, the categories of this post suggest one way we might do it that's more satisfying than the naive way we draw the boundaries of "life". We could equate life we active systems. We could equate life with active, purposeful systems. We could equate life with active, purposeful, teleological systems. The test would then be to see which one is most useful to us if we use that to mean "life". Are we happy with the kinds of things that end up in the category? Does it seem natural? Or are these categories cutting at something orthogonal to what we mean by "life" and we would actually prefer to define it some other way. I suspect the answer is that by "life" we mean something orthogonal to this classification system such that things we consider alive cut across the boundaries it draws.
Answer by neotoky0130

My approach to solving productivity/motivation/energy problems is to focus on variables with the greatest weight. The big three are diet, sleep, and exercise; so if I'm experiencing slowdowns the first thing I do is make sure those three variables are in good shape. Then I work down the list of variables with descending weight: stress, loneliness, boredom, etc., your variables may vary. Sure there is a difference between taking 1000mg and 2500mg of Vitamin C a day; but it's not statistically relevant (unless you have some serious health issues, like scurvy).

So you're arguing that, in times of great need that require split second decisions and fast action, theological belief can be beneficial. Maybe. Believing there is some ultimate closure or purpose to your existence and to the conflict you're currently dealing with could reduce your levels of stress, maybe increasing your cognitive abilities. It could also be detrimental if you believe there is some afterlife and that, in the end, you'll all be okay, and so you perform worse. Trying to convince someone that god isn't real or there isn't an afterlife in a fo... (read more)

1alexgieg
About rationality and better models of reality increasing chances of success, I'd say this depends on the person's psychological profile. For those with the appropriate traits, yes, it does increase chances of success, but for those with a strong tendency to develop depression or anxiety, or who already suffer from personality disorders, they may prove indifferent, or even detrimental. Additionally, there may be cognitive-developmental pre-requisites for becoming actually able to use reason and accurate models productively. For example, someone at the, so to speak, "groupthink" stage of their cognitive development, such as most teens, and about a third of all adults, and possessing average IQ, tend to function well only in the direction their in-group points towards, and, as studies based on Kohlberg's "moral reasoning scale" have confirmed, tend to think of social orientation of higher levels as idealized but unworkable in practice. This means that, for those individuals, we'd need to figure out a way to speed up their cognitive development before they're able to make use of rationality tools and more accurate models. These considerations may point out how and why mechanisms such as the just world hypothesis, optimism, hope, and their mix into religious models, arose and became evolutionary successful: because they allow a large contingent of people to be productive despite the way reality actually is. This also implies that the most rational thing to do, in light of this model, would be to harvest this mechanism and optimize it towards more effectiveness, developing a set of groupthinks that provide for more effectiveness and also better fulfill different sets of psychological traits compared to the groupthinks that developed naturally over time and were selected for.

Is there any evidence that cryogenics preserves the structure and cells of the brain? 

3Synaptic
Sure there is plenty of evidence.  Here is a good starting point: http://chronopause.com/chronopause.com/index.php/2011/02/23/does-personal-identity-survive-cryopreservation/index.html

I don't understand your post. Why are memetic tribes relevant to the discussion of potential existential risks; which is the basis of the original post? Is your argument that all communities have some sort of shared existential threat, that is contradictory to the other existential threats of other communities? It seems to me the point of a rationalist community should be to find the greatest existential threats and focus on finding solutions.

2alkexr
The basis of the original post isn't existential threats, but narratives - ways of organizing the exponential complexity of all the events in the world into a comparatively simple story-like structure. Memetic tribes are only tangentially relevant here. I didn't really intend to present any argument, just a set of narratives present in some other communities you probably haven't encountered.