There's something called plausible reasoning (or statistical inference) that is well explained in Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (by E.T. Jaynes). It's something that happens everyday in our minds when we try to evaluate the plausibility ("how probable is this") of a thing. For example, if I take the free coffee available at my work, I'm never 100% sure that it's coffee inside the pot. When I pour it in my glass, the liquid is brownish, so I get more confident, but I'm still not 100% sure it's coffee.
The same happens when we see a politician talk... (read more)
There's something called plausible reasoning (or statistical inference) that is well explained in Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (by E.T. Jaynes). It's something that happens everyday in our minds when we try to evaluate the plausibility ("how probable is this") of a thing. For example, if I take the free coffee available at my work, I'm never 100% sure that it's coffee inside the pot. When I pour it in my glass, the liquid is brownish, so I get more confident, but I'm still not 100% sure it's coffee.
The same happens when we see a politician talk... (read more)