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Crossposted to the EA Forum and my Substack. Confidence level: moderate uncertainty and not that concrete (yet). Exploratory, but I think this is plausibly important and underexplored. TL;DR Early AI safety arguments often assumed we wouldn’t get meaningful warning shots (a non-existential public display of misalignment) before catastrophic misalignment, meaning...
TL;DR: A couple months ago, we (Jo and Noah) wrote the first Wikipedia article on Mechanistic Interpretability. It was oddly missing despite Mech Interp’s visibility in alignment circles. We think Wikipedia is a top-of-funnel resource for journalists, policy staffers, and curious students, so filling that gap is cheap field-building. Seeing...
Note: This piece will not spend much time arguing that pre-training is dead—others have done that elsewhere. Instead, the point here is to explore how people ought to update if they believe pre-training is dead. I’m also setting aside questions of degrees-of-deadness and how confident we should be. Newton’s third...
The following is a translated famous passage from the Babylonian Talmud (Bava Metzia 59a–b) that I believe has a good implicit rationalist intepretation. Here is the source to read it yourself. Everything in [] was added by the publisher of the translation and () were added by me for clarity/...
Hey y'all! I just started a rationality group on the UChicago campus and wanted to post it here to advertise it to UChicago-affiliated LessWrong readers. We've had a couple meetings so far which have been great, and I'm excited for more! A few more things: (1) You can join the...
I wrote a post to my Substack attempting to compile all of the best arguments against AI as an existential threat. Some arguments that I discuss include: international game theory dynamics, reference class problems, knightian uncertainty, superforecaster and domain expert disagreement, the issue with long-winded arguments, and more! Please tell...
I'm curious as to what y'all think of the points made in this post against AI risk from 2 AI researchers at Princeton. If you have reason to think any points made are particularly good or bad, write it in the comments below!