All of PeterCoin's Comments + Replies

So yeah. the gold standard is. of course. scientific prediction. My idea is very far away from such a thing! I actually do have some background in quantum mechanics (I have a physics minor :P) and at one point actually did have some understanding of Hamiltonian Operators and eigenstates and bra-ket notation. However that's a far cry from the sort of needed mathematics to really understand the implications of what I'm talking about (this is why they say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing)! What I do have is enough knowledge to tentatively pose that... (read more)

I'm confused here: You seem to be analyzing a troubleshooting process. How exactly did the troubleshooting process fail? I can see that there's some criticisms of what was done. But I don't see how this troubleshooting process resulted in disaster.

0fowlertm
Because I missed numerous implications, needlessly increased causal opacity, and failed to establish a baseline before I started fiddling with variables. Those are poor troubleshooting practices.

These are some very good links. I'm still digesting them. Thank you!

I've at least gave them all a once over (with the exception of Permutation City which awesome as it looks suffers from my general failure to incorporate fiction into my life) but definitely need to dig deeper. There's so much cool stuff out there that I'm still scratching the surface on.

Hans Moravec's Mind Children, I think comes closest to my argument. but stops short of stating that quantum suicide type scenarios might skew our understanding of physical law.

Anyways I'm just curious as to what else you've seen in a similar vein.

I get the sort of unrestrained woolly thinking that comes from a diet of too much insight porn and an overtrusting one's own ideas. Let me assure you that I don't particularly trust my suspicion here. My aim is to see if it is a good idea or not and if it is a good idea see how far it goes. I figure if someone can provide an extremely compelling argument as to why it's not true then that itself would probably be pretty interesting!

On the subject of quantum mechanics my intent is not to explain a mystery with another mystery fill it with secret sauce and... (read more)

0Viliam
Well, if you get some mathematics explaining why universe destruction results in exactly the numbers known from quantum physics, then maybe it gets interested. Sorry, I have no specific path to follow, other than to first study quantum physics on its own (all the equations with the complex numbers etc.) before inventing your own theory of why it is what it is. First get to know what, then speculate about why. Otherwise you are at risk of getting quantum physics wrong, and then inventing reasons for your wrong understanding of the quantum physics, which is a lose/lose situation (either you can't find a good explanation, or you succeed to find an "explanation" for something that is actually not true). If you get familiar with the standard university-level quantum physics, then your hypotheses get the chance to be actually useful. Making a wrong hypothesis is the inevitable risk, but seeing people waste energy inventing explanations for something that is not true, that's quite sad. (I am now thinking on one long lecture I attended at Mensa, where a guy "disproved theory of relativity" by proposing a theory that was obviously wrong for trivial reasons; it actually predicted that particles would move quite differently parallel to some absolute space axes x,y,z than diagonally. Since there are no obvious "straight" and "diagonal" directions in our universe, his hypothesis was completely wrong regardless of whether Einstein was right or wrong about some technical detail.)

This is exactly the suspicion I have. The "real" physical laws could be quite different from the "experienced" physical laws. If this idea is correct physicists are only getting a small piece of the story of how the universe really operates.

It seems to me that this sort of behavior could (with sufficient refinement) provide an account for some of the more bizarre aspects of physical law. An obvious target is the counterintuitive statistics that make quantum mechanics so spooky.

It would also be place where physicsists could stuff thei... (read more)

0Viliam
Please don't go this way, this is an obvious dead end. Trying to explain something you don't understand by proposing even weirder hypothesis with completely unpredictable consequences... yeah, it's tempting, but you could equally say that "maybe magic is real... and that would explain the double-slit experiment". It kinda would, but only because it could explain literally everything.

Median expected behavior is simple which makes it easy to calculate.

As an electrical engineer when I design circuits I start off by assuming that all my parts behave exactly as rated. If a resistor says it's 220+10% Ohms then I use 220 for my initial calculations. Assuming median behavior works wonderfully in telling me what my circuit probably will do.

In fact that's good enough info for me to base my design decision on for a lot of purposes (given a quick verification of functionality, of course).

But what about that 10%? What if it might matter? On... (read more)

0Houshalter
Worst case isn't a great metric either. E.g. you are required to pay the mugger, because it's the worst possible case. Average case doesn't solve it either, because the utility the mugger is promising is even greater than improbability he's right. Rare outliers can throw off the average case by a lot. We need to invent some kind of policy to decide what actions to prefer, given a set of the utilities and probabilities of each possible outcome. Expected utility isn't good enough. Median utility isn't either. But there might be some compromise between them that gets what we want. Or a totally different algorithm altogether.

I'll dig a little deeper but let me first ask these questions:

What do you define as a coincidence?

Where can I find an explanation of the N 2^{-(K + C)} weighting?

0Squark
A "coincidence" is an a priori improbable event in your model that has to happen in order to create a situation containing a "copy" of the observer (which roughly means any agent with a similar utility function and similar decision algorithm). Imagine two universe clusters in the multiverse: one cluster consists of universe running on fragile physics, another cluster consists of universes running on normal physics. The fragile cluster will contain much less agent-copies than the normal cluster (weighted by probability). Imagine you have to make a decision which produces different utilities depending on whether you are in the fragile cluster or the normal cluster. According to UDT, you have to think as even you are deciding for all copies. In other words, if you make decisions under the assumption you are in the fragile cluster, all copies make decisions under this assumption, if you make decisions under the assumption you are in the normal cluster, all copies make decisions under this assumption. Since the normal cluster is much more "copy-dense", it pays off much more to make decisions as if you are in the normal cluster (since utility is aggregated over the entire multiverse). The weighting comes from the Solomonoff prior. For example, see the paper by Legg.

I'm digging into this a little bit, but I'm not following your reasoning. UDT from what I see doesn't mandate the procedure you outline. (perhaps you can show an article where it does) I also don't see how which decision theory is best should play a strong role here.

But anyways I think the heart of your objection seems to be "Fragile universes will be strongly discounted in the expected utility because of the amount of coincidences required to create them". So I'll free admit to not understanding how this discounting process works, but I will ... (read more)

1Squark
Unfortunately a lot of the knowledge on UDT is scattered in discussions and it's difficult to locate good references. The UDT point of view is that subjective probabilities are meaningless (the third horn of the anthropic trilemma) thus the only questions it make sense to ask are decision-theoretic questions. Therefore decision theory does play a strong role in any question involving anthropics. See also this. The weight of a hypothesis in the Solomonoff prior equals N 2^{-(K + C)} where K is its Kolomogorov complexity, C is the number of coin flips needed to produce the given observation and N is the number of different coin flip outcomes compatible with the given observation. Your fragile universes have high C and low N. Right. But these are weak points of the theory, not strong points. That is, if we find an equally simple theory which doesn't require these coincidences it will receive substantially higher weight. Anyway your fragile universes have a lot more coincidences than any conventional physical theory. In principle hypotheses with more planets suitable for life also get higher weight, but the effect levels off when reaching O(1) civilizations per current cosmological horizon because it is offset by the high utility of having the entire future light cone to yourself. This is essentially the anthropic argument for a late filter in the Fermi paradox, and the reason this argument doesn't work in UDT. All of the physical theories we have so far are not fragile, therefore they are vastly superior to any fragile physics you might invent.

A few brainstormy ideas:

Survival/Sustenance - Food/Water/Shelter/Safety

Humor - Jokes/Comedy

Intimacy - Feeling emotionally connected/Physical Affection/Proximity

Validation - Positive Feedback on emotions/feeling understood/feeling that one is good and one matters

0Elo
I added survival into health Intimacy falls under family/social I feel that you can get intimacy out of either family endeavours or social endeavours and there is nothing of intimacy that falls outside of those two. (have added to the above but not made a new class of goal) validation is new and on the list now. I am not sure how humour is a goal - can you explain more?

I'm not quite grasping what you're trying to get it here. Please do elaborate and clarify!

When you say "It's irrelevant" and "it doesn't provide any useful information or anything that should guide your behavior" what are you referring to?

Choosing to go for chemo and jumping off a bridge should have different results, The difference between the two results would be the basis for the decision. I don't see how fragile universe hypothesis or MWI should undermine that.

As for the relevance of other timelines, I have four answers:

  1. MWI all

... (read more)
0HungryHobo
irrelevant to decision-making. The idea that out of the [finite number so large that it's probably hard to express even with Knuth's up-arrow notation] possible future me's there's likely some which live an insanely long time or [reach any other state] isn't useful. MWI may be useful to physicists and mathematicians but it's not the kind of relevant that means anything to normal decision making. Unless your job is programming a quantum computer it's totally irrelevant to your life. You do not get to good results by saying "well one of the future me's will do fine in the MW's" It implies that there is a future you for whom by random chance all genetic degradation will fail to happen and that random motion of molecules will replenish all his Telomeres at once halting aging while around him by pure chance gasses happen to separate into lower entropy states etc. Though lets not forget the future you who's cell walls all suddenly burst by chance at the same time. But that's not useful to you. Banking on one or the other or using it as a reason to not worrying about something doesn't help you.

Certainly it would do that, but that could have other effects. For instance, let's say that the presence of a magnetic monopole would rapidly nucleate a vacuum decay event which otherwise would not occur. That effect might explain why the standard model does not include magnetic monopoles.

I'll have to dig into mangled worlds, It seems pretty interesting. Will report back with results, hopefully.

My objection is to the subjective experience of immortality. The multiple worlds gives rise to the illusion of probability. where it seems to us that quantum outputs are chosen randomly (because the vast majority of us experience arbitrary sequences when performing a series of quantum measurements). It is proposed that we should expect ourselves to find ourselves eventually living far beyond our natural years because of this observer selection effect. I would counter that that expectation comes from a naive view of selfhood that treats it like an all-or-nothing thing rather than something far slipperier.

I don't deny that some timelines have versions of me that may "live forever".

2HungryHobo
My objection is that it's irrelevant: It doesn't provide any useful information or anything that should guide your behavior because if every possible scenario is played out there's little difference between choosing to go for chemo and jumping off a bridge. We're stuck with 1 subjective timeline. The other trousers of time aren't really relevant to us.

So yes, annihilation refers specifically to any process that would at light speed render the universe lethal to life as we know it. I think of it sort of like living on a bubble that's always bursting (in timelines we don't observe). There's something left over but it's pretty unrecognizable.

Any account of the origin of the universe is probably going to have some anthropic consideration, so Boltzmann brains are not a unique problem. But I think fragile universe hypothesis may be an asset in solving it. Conventional cosmology calls for a short lived act... (read more)

I'm not sure what you're trying to draw from here, but I don't think MWI requires an infinite number of possibilities.

What matters is in my interpretation of Tegmark's view is that there are many many more cases (by infinite or finite measure) where it works properly than cases where it doesn't.

Example: 499,999,999,999,000 cases cause death without observer experience 500,000,000,000,000 cases do nothing 1000 cases represent equipment failures

We should expect that the subject can predict for himself the do nothing case will occur with extremely high probability.

I've seen a number very small mentions like that, but never anything giving it more than passing consideration. In addition, I haven't seen anyone postulate that this could be distorting our view of other physical laws.

If you've come across something more, I would love to see it!

4DanielLC
Obviously it would distort our view of how quickly the universe decays into a true vacuum. There's also the mangled worlds idea to explain the Born rule.

Quantum mechanics is definitely not immune, that's where we should see the manifestation of the bias I'm proposing. When I refer to Everett many words I'm referring specifically to the property of it where an observer "branches" into multiple successor observers (which I extend to include branches where there are no successor observers).

But which laws would be affected and which would not, I'm not at all certain. It could be some, or all (or, of course, none, if I'm wrong). My proposal is to use this sort of reasoning to develop "deeper" fundamental laws.

The happiness of stupidity is not closed to me. By the time I've made 1 rational decision (by whatever metric one wants to use) I'll have made 100 irrational ones. Stupidity and irrationality is built into the very way I operate.

I am primarily composed stupid and irrational beliefs and I am continually creating more.

You don't choose to be irrational, that's the default position.

Rationality is a limited precious resource that you use to diagnose and fix problems within the irrational milieu of systems and subsystems that make up your mind.

Second order r... (read more)

0CrimeThinker
Generally agreed, doublethink is actually very easy and natural and is actually also probably the default state for human beings. In my experience, doublethink isn't so complicated as others seem to think, believing in two sides of one scale, but rather understanding a sort of multidimensional scale. Just as the teacher in Donnie Darko was made fun of for the idea of everything falling onto a love/fear scale, there's probably a good chance that scale is actually right and not wrong at all, but is only one axis of a plethora of emotional dimensions. This is part of why it is better to be MoreRight than LessWrong, though both are pretty neat. :)

Hey y'all, I come here both as a friend and with an agenda. I'm scary.

See I have a crazy pet theory... (and yes it's a TOE, fancy that!)

...and I'd love to give it a small home on the Internet. Here?

This like to share it with you because this community seems to be be the proper blend of open minded and skeptical. Which is what the damn thing needs.

Anyways I've lurked for quite awhile, and you guys have been great at opening my mind to a lot of things. I figure this might be good enough and crazy enough to give something back.

As a personal note, I'm curre... (read more)

3Jiro
The response to your theory, though, will depend on whether it's one of those. And the response to "should I tell you my new theory" will depend on the fact that such theories have some probability of being one of those. Ultimately, you have to tell us the theory to know how we'll react.