All of pico's Comments + Replies

pico40

Please PM me a draft of your fighting aging article if you want to - I can read it and offer feedback

2turchin
Thanks, I will do it after I'll finish to include substantial contribution which I got from the other source.
pico00

Neural networks seem like they would benefit from high-latency clusters. If you divide the nodes up into 100 clusters during training, and you have ten layers, it might take each cluster 0.001s to process a single sample. So the processing time per cluster is maybe 100-1000 times less than the total latency, which is acceptable if you have 10,000,000 samples and can allow some weight updates to be a bit out of order. Also, if you just want the forward pass of the network, that's the ideal case, since there are no state updates.

In general, long computations tend to be either stateless or have slowly changing state relative to the latency, so parallelism can work.

2username2
Sorry, I was using "high-latency clusters" as a term to refer to heterogeneous at-home consumer hardware networked over WANs, as the term is sometimes meant in this field. The problem isn't always latency (although for some work loads it is), but rather efficiency. Consumer hardware is simply not energy efficient for most categories of scientific work. Your typical, average computer plugged into such a system is not going to have a top of the line GTX 1080 or Titan X card with lots of RAM. At best it will be a gaming system optimized for a different use case, and probably trades off energy efficiency at peak usage in favor of lowering idle power draw. It almost certainly doesn't have the right hardware for the particular use case. SETI@Home for example is an ideal use case for high latency clusters, and by some metrics is one of the most powerful 'supercomputers' in existence. However it has also been estimated that the entire network could be replaced by a single rack of FPGAs processing in real-time at the source. SETI@Home and related projects work because it is "free" computation. But as soon as you start charging for the use of your computer equipment, it stops making any kind of economic sense.
pico00

Good point, though there should be value on the other end at least. For example if 100 people on a network each need more than their laptop's computing power 1% of the time, in the ideal case, the average person would get a 100 times speed up for that 1% of the time without providing a credit card. So they could train an image classifier in 6 minutes instead of 10 hours.

Also I should admit that I'm only poor in the relative sense - I need rice, beans, and a few dozen square feet, and I have those things covered.

Hmm it probably is more lucrative to convert... (read more)

2Liron
These 100 strangers who need bursts of computation can pay $5 to spin up a powerful Amazon EC2 instance for a couple hours. That seems like a good deal for the value they're getting, and very hard to undercut. So I see no startup opportunity. Re college... If "flexible schedule, great peers, extremely good teachers, excuse to be a student" is really what you want, I can easily get you all that for only $10k/year, a fraction of what you're probably paying now. But the truth is, college's main value-add is the expectation of a better career. These days, college is doing a pretty terrible job of helping people get any careers at all. I know 4 separate people who got their college degree, couldn't get any jobs, trained a few months in software engineering through bootcamps or online, then got 6-figure software engineering jobs. Khan Academy and various coding bootcamps are already becoming a viable alternative to college, and I don't see an obvious niche for a new startup.
0username2
There is pretty much no use cases that benefit from high latency clusters of computers. We're talking hundreds or thousands of times less efficient. Nice idea in theory, doesn't hold up in practice.
pico00

Like most college students, I am annoyed that I am poor. I would like a way to sell the spare computing power of my laptop over the Internet to people who would pay for it, like deep learning folks. I would be willing to share 50% of the profits with anyone who can figure out how to do this.

0ChristianKl
The electricity you pay for the computing is more expensive than the produced value. That's why CPU bitcoin mining with spare consumer hardware isn't profitable. Additionally there's trust involved. Nobody has a good reason to trust you to do the calculations exactly the way they desire.
0Lumifer
How much do you think your spare computing power is worth?
4Liron
Haha the problem is that even if you have a pretty souped up gaming desktop, its computing power is probably worth less than the power costs, so you'd basically be selling just your room's power. Maybe you live in a dorm and you don't have to pay for that power, but even then, we're talking about pennies. The problem of "college students are annoyingly poor" is a big niche. What do you know about converting your time to money through your computer?
pico70

Being a billionaire is evidence more of determination than of luck. I also don't think billionaires believe they are the smartest people in the world. But like everyone else, they have too much faith in their own opinions when it comes to areas in which they're not experts. They just get listened to more.

pico00

You can tell pretty easily how good research in math or physics is. But in AI safety research, you can fund people working on the wrong things for years and never know, which is exactly the problem MIRI is currently crippled by. I think OpenAI plans to get around this problem by avoiding AI safety research altogether and just building AIs instead. That initial approach seems like the best option. Even if they contribute nothing to AI safety in the near-term, they can produce enough solid, measurable results to keep the organization alive and attract the be... (read more)

2ChristianKl
Which of the answers do you consider not well-thought-out?
pico50

It depends what level of fact checking is needed. Watson is well-suited for answering questions like "What year was Obama born?", because the answer is unambiguous and also fairly likely to be found in a database. I would be very surprised if Watson could fact check a statement like "Putin has absolutely no respect for President Obama", because the context needed to evaluate such a statement is not so easy to search for and interpret.

4ChristianKl
I'm not sure that a statement like that has to tagged as a falsehood. I would be fine with a fact checker that focuses on statements that are more clearly false.
pico40

I'm still fairly skeptical that algorithmically fact-checking anything complex is tractable today. The Google article states that "this is 100 percent theoretical: It’s a research paper, not a product announcement or anything equally exciting." Also, no real insights into nlp are presented; the article only suggests that an algorithm could fact check relatively simple statements that have clear truth values by checking a large database of information. So if the database has nothing to say about the statement, the algorithm is useless. In particular, such an approach would be unable to fact-check the Fiorina quote you used as an example.

1michaelkeenan
It would still be helpful to have automatic fact-checking of simple statements. Consider this Hacker News thread - two people are arguing about crime rates in the UK and USA. Someone says "The UK is a much more violent society than the US" and they argue about that, neither providing citations. That might be simple enough that natural language processing could parse it and check it against various interpretations of it. For example, one could imagine a bot that notices when people are arguing over something like that (whether on the internet or in a national election. It would provide useful relevant statistics, like the total violent crime rates in each country, or the murder rate, or whatever it thinks is relevant. If it were an ongoing software project, the programmers could notice when it's upvoted and downvoted, and improve it.
5ChristianKl
Do you think fact checking is an inherently more difficult problem then what Watson can do?
pico40

Proposition: how much you should prioritize using currently available life extension methods depends heavily on how highly you value arbitrary life extension. The exponential progress of technology means that on the small chance a healthier lifestyle* nontrivially increases your lifespan, there is a fairly good chance you get arbitrary life extension a result. So the outcome is pretty binary - live forever or get an extra few months. If you're content with current lifespans, as most people seem to be, the chance at immortality is probably still small enough to ignore.

*healthier than the obvious (exercise, don't smoke, etc.)

2turchin
I think it depends of the age of a person. If he is in 60 or 70's, he should be more interested in cryonics. If he is 20, he will probably immortal anyway (if no accidents or x-risks happens). But for middle age guy like me it is more tricky. Also I think that is normal to want to live very long life, but somehow most people don't thinks so, and it is the biggest mystery for me.
pico40

In general there should be a way to outsource forum moderation tasks like these, rather than everyone in charge of a community having to do it themselves.

2skeptical_lurker
Absolutely there should be! But do you know of anyone providing these tools? Reddit has certain mod bots, but I've never heard of an anti-sockpuppet one. By comparison, there are blockbots, so people who are politically blue can block the greens if they hate their enemies and refuse to see the other sides POV, but since we don't have subreddits, anything of that ilk won't work here.
pico40

Setting aside whether or not this is useful, I'm not convinced that the implementation you described is practical. Google based search on hyperlinks specifically because that was easy to implement. Is there a smaller search space than the entirety of human knowledge on which this would still be useful?

pico20

At worst, it's a demonstration of how much influence LessWrong has relative to the size of its community. Many people who don't know this site exists know about Roko's basilisk now.

pico30

Sorry, should have defined dangerous ideas better - I only meant information that would cause a rational person to drastically alter their behavior, and which would be much worse for society as a whole when everyone is told at once about it.

pico10

I think genuinely dangerous ideas are hard to come by though. They have to be original enough that few people have considered them before, and at the same time have powerful consequences. Ideas like that usually don't pop into the heads of random, uninformed strangers.

9OrphanWilde
Depends on your definition of "Dangerous." I've come across quite a few ideas that tend to do -severe- damage to the happiness of at least a subset of those aware of them. Some of them are about the universe; things like entropy. Others are social ideas, which I won't give an example of.
-1Bryan-san
I hope they're as hard to come by as you think they are. Alternatively, Roko could be part of the 1% of people who think of a dangerous idea (assuming his basilisk is dangerous) and spread it on the internet without second guessing themselves. Are there 99 other people who thought of dangerous ideas and chose not to spread them for our 1 Roko?
4Richard_Kennaway
Daniel Dennett wrote a book called "Darwin's Dangerous Idea", and when people aren't trying to play down the basilisk (i.e. almost everywhere), people often pride themselves on thinking dangerous thoughts. It's a staple theme of the NRxers and the manosphere. Claiming to be dangerous provides a comfortable universal argument against opponents. I think there are, in fact, a good many dangerous ideas, not merely ideas claimed to be so by posturers. Off the top of my head: * Islamic fundamentalism (see IS/ISIS/ISIL). * The mental is physical. * God. * There is no supernatural. * Utilitarianism. * Superintelligent AI. * How to make nuclear weapons. * Atoms. They do, all the time, by contagion from the few who come up with them, especially in the Internet age.