I agree that's a risk for proof-of-work chains like Bitcoin, but say Ethereum completes its move to proof-of-stake. Then the AI would need to own 51% of Ethereum, and if the stakers don't want to sell, it seems like the AI is stuck. 51% is not as good as 100%, sure, a single veto point is not enough, but it is half as good and would seem to buy you time (as I would imagine people would become suspicious of any entity that accumulated too much ethereum, effectively).
My thought is that even if an AI could create a copy of itself on more traditional hardware, it would nonetheless have little functionality to do anything, because everything else would be on the blockchain. If I had an idle computer disconnected to the internet today, even if it were hyperintelligent, what could it do?
I’m not sure what prompted all of this effort, and I’ve rarely heard Kelly described as corresponding to log utility, only ever as an aside about mean-variance optimization. There, log utility corresponds to A=1, which is also the Kelly portfolio. That is the maximally aggressive portfolio, and most people are much, much more risk averse.
If anything, I’d say that the Kelly - log utility connection obviously suggests one point, which is that most people are far too risk-averse (less normatively, most people don’t have log utility functions). The exception is Buffett - empirically he does, subject to leverage constraints.
Did you take vitamin K? You really need that to process vitamin D. This LessWrong post goes into more detail. Quotes from the article:
...Atli Arnarson makes the case in Is Vitamin D Harmful Without Vitamin K? that Vitamin D toxicity at high doses is usually about K2 deficiency because both are needed in the same pathways and more K2 is needed when there's more Vitamin D. Vitamin D toxicity leads to hypercalcemia where there's too much Calcium in the blood. Calcifediol moves some calcium from the bone to the blood and K2 is needed to put the calcium in the bon
>The vast majority of the equity premium is unexplained. When people say "just buy stocks and hold for a long period and you'll make 10% a year", they're asserting that the unexplained equity premium will persist, and I have a problem with that assumption.
I completely agree with you here. My point is that this comment is different from the plain language interpretation of your top post. I know that is a seemingly small point, but I commented because I don't want to leave future readers with the wrong impression. If we did not have this conversation, I t...
The equity risk premium puzzle is about a very different question, no? The equity premium puzzle is a puzzle because of how large the equity premium is to bonds, but it is totally expected that there is an equity premium or that bond and equity returns are positive. Concretely, the puzzle asks, why do equities earn 8% if the risk-free rate is 2%, instead of 3%? The puzzle is that 6% spread is much larger than what standard financial theory predicts (although a lot of the dispute ends up being around the right parameterization and benchmarks). But standard ...
Why shouldn't have stocks gone up historically? Isn't there more real wealth today than during the days of the East India Company? If a stock represents a piece of a businesses, and those businesses now have more real wealth today than 300 years ago, why shouldn't stock returns be quite positive? To be honest I'm bewildered by this perspective that stocks should never go up - I've never seen anyone in finance academically or professionally entertain this idea, so I'm surprised to hear you say "no one knows the answer," as if it's a common puzzle in the field. Why some stocks go up more than others is a good and open question, but that's one of relative valuation, not whether market returns on an absolute are greater than zero.
The biggest reason stocks go up is pretty simple, in my view: a lot of very smart and hardworking people are working very hard to make stocks go up. In addition, lots of less smart and less hardworking people are also working to make stocks go up. In contrast, very few people are trying to make stocks go down.
While there are shortsellers, they are generally not trying to make stocks go down, i.e. by destroying value. Instead, shortsellers are simply saying that some companies are overvalued, and time and effort is better spent on other companies.
What do I ...
This is amazing. I've often used blocking extensions, only to remove them when I "needed" them - e.g., a google search about a health question resulted in an informative reddit thread. This is great, because now I can use these sites when I have a legitimate need (or at least when it's worth a 30 second delay). It's great for email in particular, because I use it both out of need and as a distraction.
>The negation of "on the blockchain" is not "disconnected to the internet". Almost all traditional hardware is connected to the internet.
Of course that's the case today! I'm speaking of a hypothetical future where the entire internet interfaces using blockchain technology.