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The Curse Of The Counterfactual

The Introduction The Curse of the Counterfactual is a side-effect of the way our brains process is-ought distinctions. It causes our brains to compare our past, present, and future to various counterfactual imaginings, and then blame and punish ourselves for the difference between reality, and whatever we just made up to replace it. Seen from the outside, this process manifests itself as stress, anxiety, procrastination, perfectionism, creative blocks, loss of motivation, inability to let go of the past, constant starting and stopping on one goal or frequent switching between goals, low self-esteem and many other things. From the inside, however, these counterfactuals can feel more real to us than reality itself, which can make it difficult to even notice it's happening, let alone being able to stop it. Unfortunately, even though each specific instance of the curse can be defused using relatively simple techniques, we can’t just remove the parts of our brain that generate new instances of the problem. Which means that you can’t sidestep the Curse by imagining yet another counterfactual world: one in which you believe you ought to be able to avoid falling into its trap, just by being smarter or more virtuous! Using examples derived from my client work, this article will show how the Curse operates, and the bare bones of some approaches to rectifying it, with links to further learning materials. (Case descriptions are anonymized and/or composites; i.e., the names are not real, and identifying details have been changed.) THE DISCLAIMER To avoid confusion between object-level advice, and the meta-level issue of “how our moral judgment frames interfere with rational thinking”, I have intentionally omitted any description of how the fictionalized or composite clients actually solved the real-life problems implied by their stories. The examples in this article do not promote or recommend any specific object-level solutions for even those clients’ actual specific probl

143Nov 1, 2019

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Software developer and mindhacking instructor. Interested in intelligent feedback (especially of the empirical testing variety) on my new (temporarily free) ebook, A Minute To Unlimit You.

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The Curse Of The Counterfactual

Nov 1, 2019143

Is there a definitive intro to punishing non-punishers?

Hey LW. I've just written a draft of an article, that I'm trying to edit to link to useful prior notes on various concepts. One of those concepts is the idea that we evolved to "punish the non-punishers", in order to ensure the costs of social punishment are shared by...

Oct 31, 201925

TV's "Elementary" Tackles Friendly AI and X-Risk - "Bella" (Possible Spoilers)

I was a bit surprised to find this week's episode of Elementary was about AI... not just AI and the Turing Test, but also a fairly even-handed presentation of issues like Friendliness, hard takeoff, and the difficulties of getting people to take AI risks seriously. The case revolves around a...

Nov 22, 201448

[Link, Humor] The Best Christmas Ever

In the holiday spirit, here's a comic that many LWers may appreciate... and perhaps even find useful for illustrating a certain, ah, topic: http://www.strippycomics.com/2010/01/05/gifto/ Enjoy!

Dec 25, 201111

[Link] The Typical Mind Fallacy, Illustrated

If you've ever wanted a quick way to explain the Typical Mind Fallacy, this cartoon by Winston Rowntree will do the trick nicely. (Panel 3 seems of particular relevance to LessWrongians, and the last two panels also remind me of Hufflepuff/Slytherin themes in HP:MOR.) Enjoy!

Sep 2, 201124

Necessary, But Not Sufficient

There seems to be something odd about how people reason in relation to themselves, compared to the way they examine problems in other domains. In mechanical domains, we seem to have little problem with the idea that things can be "necessary, but not sufficient". For example, if your car fails...

Mar 23, 201061

Improving The Akrasia Hypothesis

Abstract: This article proposes a hypothesis that effective anti-akrasia methods operate by reducing or eliminating the activation of conflicting voluntary motor programs at the time the user's desired action is to be carried out, or by reducing or eliminating the negative effects of managing the conflict. This hypothesis is consistent...

Feb 26, 2010102

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The Curse Of The Counterfactual

Improving The Akrasia Hypothesis

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pjeby

The Curse Of The Counterfactual

Is there a definitive intro to punishing non-punishers?

TV's "Elementary" Tackles Friendly AI and X-Risk - "Bella" (Possible Spoilers)

[Link, Humor] The Best Christmas Ever

[Link] The Typical Mind Fallacy, Illustrated

Necessary, But Not Sufficient

Improving The Akrasia Hypothesis

The Curse Of The Counterfactual

Improving The Akrasia Hypothesis

Spock's Dirty Little Secret

Necessary, But Not Sufficient

The Curse Of The Counterfactual

Is there a definitive intro to punishing non-punishers?

TV's "Elementary" Tackles Friendly AI and X-Risk - "Bella" (Possible Spoilers)

[Link, Humor] The Best Christmas Ever

[Link] The Typical Mind Fallacy, Illustrated

Necessary, But Not Sufficient

Improving The Akrasia Hypothesis