All of qvalq's Comments + Replies

qvalq10

I'll repost my comment from Substack, with the better formatting from LessWrong.

Yay, Toki Pona and Rationalist Taboo. Thank you.
I don't know Toki Pona. I'm using Wiktionary and Google to understand the words, and mostly ignoring grammar.

I think it would make more sense to Toki Ponise all the proper nouns, and use links or footnotes to clarify the weird ones.
Taboo -> musi Tapu, and Hasbro -> kulupu Asopo?

Wiktionary says: "Using pi followed by one word is proscribed."

"ma ale en mun en kili telo li jo e selo sama."
I don't understand this sentence.

"tenpo

... (read more)
qvalq-10

Not sure why this was downvoted.
I guess it's unproductive.

3kave
Yup
qvalq10

What was this called before?

3qvalq
powe lili?
qvalq10

How/does this square with https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.07404?
IIUC, Gödel's Second Incompleteness Theorem was overinterpreted, and a different operationalization of consistency is provable.

I talked to Mihály Bárász about that, and he didn't think it was crazy.

qvalq*20

Sin(floor(2pi*10^n)) is never the same sign as n, for integer n.
Too simple, though.

qvalq10

I can see the dancers spinning in different directions.

qvalq10

The best way to draw a boundary around the high-probability things, without worrying about simplicity, is to just write down all your observations; they have probability 1 of having been observed, and everything else has probability 0.
This boundary is way too complicated; you've seen many things.

qvalq20

A finite-sized fractal in n_space still has measurable n_volume.
Its surface (n-1)_volume might be infinite, but we don't care about that.

Does that make sense?

qvalq70

Cognition -> Convergence -> Corroboration

Now they've written the post on this.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fEvCxNte6FKSRNFvN/3c-s-a-recipe-for-mathing-concepts

qvalq10

Hyperidealized art wouldn't be banned. There'd be much less of it, but not none.
It'd also be produced by much better artists.

I think you'd probably end up consuming hyperidealized art, too.
You'd notice that you preferred the more idealized art, among what you consumed, then you'd talk to a psychologist or something and they'd tell you that you'd probably be fine with the cognitohazardous stuff.

qvalq12

Why has my comment been given so much karma?

6the gears to ascension
Hunches: you ended up near the top, due to having commented on something that was highly upvoted. you were sharing something good, so getting seen a lot resulted in being upvoted more.
qvalq30

To get more comfortable with this formalism, we will translate three important voting criteria. 

You translated four criteria.

qvalq10

Scott Alexander wrote some rationalish music a decade ago. 
youtube.com/qraikoth

 

CronoDAS has uploaded a song, though it's not much rationalist.
youtube.com/CronoDAS

qvalq303

Scott Alexander wrote some music a decade ago.

youtube.com/qraikoth

 

"Mary's Room" and "Somewhere Prior To The Rainbow" are most likely to make you cry again. 
"Mathematical Pirate Shanty", if you can cry laughing.

1qvalq
Why has my comment been given so much karma?
qvalq10

Here, I'd plot difference from gravitation at sea level.

qvalq20

I've never heard the US civil war described this way.
Thank you.

2johnswentworth
Fixed, thanks.
qvalq00

I've learned the maths before.

 

I think maybe I have no idea what kinetic energy is.

3Samuel Hapák
Well, the correct question is “What is energy”. And the answer is that energy is some number that we can compute for any physical system and it doesn’t change no matter what as long as the system is reasonably isolated from its surroundings. Kinetic energy is just a portion of this quantity we can compute for something that is moving. It’s not very intuitive honestly. The best explanation for what energy is I ever read is this one from Feynman: https://www.feynmanlectures.caltech.edu/I_04.html
qvalq00

kinetic energy scales with the square of the speed

Why is this?

1Samuel Hapák
That's an excellent question! Change in energy ΔE must equal work done on the moving body W. Now, work is force over distance W=FΔs But we also know that force is mass times acceleration, thus F=ma. If you have a body moving under the influence of constant force F over time t, starting from the speed 0, it will have a speed v=Ft/m at the end. It's easy to see that the average speed it travels will be v/2 though and thus the distance travelled will be Δs=vt=Ft22m. Now, the kinetic energy equals work and thus ΔE=FΔs=12m(Ft/m)2=12mv2.
qvalq10

Ideally you'd try to have a separate bakery with reversed gender-roles.

qvalq00

I probably can't go to the October meetup, due to coincidence. How do I unRSVP on Meetup?

Unrelated, I still think I have a good chance of making it next time.

qvalq20

Thank you. I was probably wrong.

In most examples, there's no common knowledge. In most examples, information is only transmitted one way. This does not allow for Aumann agreement. One side makes one update, then stops.
If someone tells me their assigned probability for something, that turns my probability very close to theirs, if I think they've seen nearly strictly better evidence about it than I have. I think this explains most of your examples, without referencing Aumann.

I think I don't understand what you mean. What's Aumann agreement? How's it a useful concept?

1tailcalled
It is true that the original theorem relies on common knowledge. In my original post, I phrased it as "a family of theorems" because one can prove various theorems with different assumptions yet similar outcomes. This is a general feature in math, where one shouldn't get distracted by the boilerplate because the core principle is often more general than the proof. So e.g. the principle you mention, of "If someone tells me their assigned probability for something, that turns my probability very close to theirs, if I think they've seen nearly strictly better evidence about it than I have.", is something I'd suggest is in the same family as Aumann's agreement theorem. The reason for my post is that a lot of people find Aumann's agreement theorem counterintuitive and feel like its conclusion doesn't apply to typical real-life disagreements, and therefore assume that there must be some hidden condition that makes it inapplicable in reality. What I think I showed is that Aumann's agreement theorem defines "disagreement" extremely broadly and once you think about it with such a broad conception it does indeed appear to generally apply in real life, even under far weaker conditions than the original proof requires. I think this is useful partly because it suggests a better frame for reasoning about disagreement. For instance I provide lots of examples of disagreements that rapidly dissipate, and so if you wish to know why disagreements persist, it can be helpful to think about how persistent disagreements differ from the examples I list (for example many persistent disagreements are about politics, and for politics there are strong incentives for bias, so maybe some people who make political claims are dishonest, suggesting that conflict theory (the idea that political disagreement is due to differences in interests) is more accurate than mistake theory (the idea that political disagreement is due to making reasoning mistakes, which does not seem to predict that disagreem
qvalq43

I thought the surprising thing about Aumann agreement was that ideal agents with shared priors will come to agree even if they can't intentionally exchange information, and can see only the other's assigned probability. [I checked Wikipedia; with common knowledge of each other's probabilistic belief about something, ideal agents with shared priors have the same belief. There's something about dialogues, but Aumann didn't prove that. I was wrong.]

Your post seems mostly about exchange of information. It doesn't matter which order you find your evidence, so i... (read more)

0tailcalled
Knowing each other's probability for a statement requires exchanging information about which statement the probability is assigned to. In basically all of my examples, this was the information exchanged.
qvalq11

Thank you for responding.

It's possible for your team to lose five points, thereby giving the other team five points.
If the other team loses five points, then you gain five points.
Why is it not possible for the other team to lose five points without anything else happening? Where does the asymmetry come from?

It's
-25 -20 -5 0 20 25.
Why isn't it
-25 -20 -5 0 5 20 25?

1Oliver Sourbut
Ah, I see! You're spot on. Failure to properly proofread - thanks, it's amended now.
qvalq10
  • (-25) lose points and other team gains points
  • (-20) other team gains points
  • (-5) lose points and other team gets nothing
  • (0) nobody gets anything
  • (20) gain points
  • (25) other team loses points and you gain points

Why no (+5)?

2Oliver Sourbut
Right, this is a distillation. You actually get +10 for a correct buzzer answer, and then some bonus questions, which the team can answer. Bonus qs are worth +5 (each), and typically (in my experience) you get about 2 of those. So +20 ish on avg per correct buzz. Combine that with possible loss of points and you get these numbers. Obviously these are points (net change vs other team), not reward or utility! I equivocated those a bit in this discussion too.
qvalq00

Maths is incomplete. Inconsistency isn't proven.

Is this wrong?

qvalq00

X is not a thing that can be other things

Y is not actually a thing that another thing can be

Why the "actually"?

5George3d6
corrected to aktually
qvalq00

I probably won't go to this.
I probably will go to the October 21st version. Is there some way I should formally communicate that?

Probably there should be a way to be more specific than "MAYBE".
I had to Google "RSVP".
Where should I complain these to?

1J03MAN
The October 21st RSVP is on meetup. This LW post was generated from my meetups everywhere submission on the ACX blog. I've never used LW before and don't know how the site works. https://meetu.ps/e/Mqqtm/N1vlZ/i
qvalq20

I no longer think it makes sense to clam up when you can't figure out how you originally came around to the view which you now hold

Either you can say "I came to this conclusion at some point, and I trust myself", or you should abandon the belief.

You don't need to know how or why your brain happened to contain the belief; you just need to know your own justification for believing it now. If you can't sufficiently justify your belief to yourself (even through things like "My-memory-of-myself-from-a-few-minutes-ago thinks it's likely" or "First-order intuitio... (read more)

qvalq10

by far the best impact-to-community health ratio ever

What does this mean?

qvalq00

When I read "Extravert", I felt happy related to the uncommon spelling, which I also prefer.

Is this shared reality?

qvalq10

One-box only occurs in simulations, while two-box occurs in and out of simulations. 

If I one-box in simulations, then Omega puts $0 in the first box, and I can't one-box.

If I two-box in simulations, then Omega puts $100 in the first box, so I may be in a simulation or not.

One-boxing kills me, so I two-box.

 

Either I've made a mistake, or you have. Where is it?

2lsusr
I mixed up the $100 and $0 in the original post. This is now fixed.
qvalq10

Thank you for the comparison.

qvalq*00

Paul Graham says Robert Morris is never wrong.

He does this by qualifying statements (ex. "I think"), not by saying fewer things.

qvalq-10

"Your loved one has passed on"

I'm not sure I've ever used a euphemism (I don't know what a euphemism is).

When should I?

The more uncertain your timelines are, the more it's a bad idea to overstress. You should take it somewhat easy; it's usually more effective to be capable of moderate contribution over the long term than great contribution over the short term.

qvalq30

I dislike when fish suffer because I feel sad, and because other people want fish to not suffer for moral reasons.

qvalq10

A line is just a helix that doesn't curve. It works the same for any helix; it would be a great coincidence, to get a line.

qvalq*00

So we can't have fewer geniuses. More people means more people above 5 standard deviations (by definition?).

qvalq00

I tried to solve (n+1)^4 visually. I spent about five minutes, and was unable to visualise well enough.

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