All of raydora's Comments + Replies

Domain: Combat Sports

Link: Muay Thai Library

Person: Sylvie Von Duuglas-Ittu

Background: Muay Thai fighter with over 200 fights.

Why: Sylvie shows herself learning with her 'Muay Thai Library' videos. She narrates how she explores learning someone's technique or strategy.

More than any particular technique, these videos show someone's learning process. This is applicable to all combat sports.

Games with non-real-world rules are how everyone who fights wars prepares for wars.

16 minutes here. Also guessed frequently.

We have mandatory 'fun days' where we grill hot dogs and play ultimate football.

Thanks for the link, I'll definitely attempting to implement some of the lessons from it to my draft next year. Incidentally, drafting is where I've always failed- I kind of just picked players without any knowledge or analysis, and then figured out what I could do with them during the season. The waiver wire helped, of course. Mine is an extremely blue collar league, so there's not much in the way of strategy besides 'I follow my gut'.

I'm deeply interested in this problem.

I've got to ask, though.

Isn't this a niche filled by 'business intelligence' and 'data science'? They call it a lot of different things, sure, but they seem to be operating in the same space- at least, they may seem to, to a non-technical executive. An exception is mid-to-small business - I don't think there's a lot of penetration there.

I no longer play sports (unless it's mandated by work), unless you count grappling on occasion.

Yes, I maintain a fantasy football team to practice statistical thinking (as opposed to actual statistics, at the moment) and because I found it ingratiates me with my colleagues. My workplace went from a den of geeks to regular Monday night football types in the space of months, so I switched from D&D to fantasy football.

It's safe to say I don't really have teams I root for (once upon a time it was Newcastle United, because I liked zebras as a kid) or spor... (read more)

Measuring RMR could reveal snowflake likelihood.

If ego depletion turns out to be real, choosing not to limit yourself in order to focus on something you find important might be a choice you make. Different people really do carry their fat differently, too, so there's that. Not everyone who runs marathons is slender, especially as they age.

And then there's injuries, but that brings up another subject.

I'm not sure how expensive whole body air displacement is in the civilian world, but it seems like a decent way to measure lean mass.

Have you talked to her about it? What does she say?

I'm a little surprised you hired someone for those designs. May I ask how much you paid? Quite honestly, you could've gotten the same design from a middle school student taking a graphic design class. This is fine if you're doing it yourself, but if you're paying for it, well, I think I could do better for free, and I've got absolutely no qualifications in the field.

I know what kind of designs appeal to a subset of society, but I guess we'd have to figure out who your target audience for those t-shirts are. It might not be anyone here, or anyone with the ... (read more)

I'm talking about pleasure in general. Not just sexual.

I'm not sure the potential risk of side effects of the drugs in question are worth such a change. I don't know how old you are, but your libido might also diminish over time.

I used to have similar thoughts as a teenager, so I understand the sentiment, but like everything else at that age, those concerns seem minute in hindsight.

How much fun do you have? Increasing hedons might yield a more efficient balance.

Late reply, I know!

Standardizing decisions through checklists and decision trees has, in general, shown to be useful if the principles behind those algorithms are based on a reliable map. In medical practice, that's probably the evidence-based medicine approach to screening, diagnosis, and treatment.

In addition, all this assumes that patient management skills are not a concern, since it's not something I personally consider important (from the point of view of a patient) when considering a provider of any medical or technical service. If you typically req... (read more)

I think becoming a sidekick would be an interesting experience.

I don't really have (this is not false humility- I think my most advanced skill is cooking, and I've never cooked for a living) any strong suits, and am mostly concerned with mundane instrumental rationality at the moment.

I'm a liberal arts dropout who joined the military a few years ago. My immediate goal is learning basic math and programming.

I suspect an outside interest (i.e, a 'hero') might help lend some focus.

Am I alone in thinking this should be in the Open Thread? /meta

I don't have any surefire methods that don't require a very basic working knowledge of medicine, but a general rule of thumb is the physician's opinion of the algorithmic approach to medical decision making. If it is clearly negative, I'd be willing to bet that the physician is bad. Not quite the same as finding a good one, but decent for narrowing your search.

Along with this, look for someone who thinks in terms of possibilities rather than certainties in diagnoses.

All assuming you're looking for a general practitioner, of course. I wouldn't select surg... (read more)

That's a good question. I don't really know. I think I've been equating 'persuasion' with 'dark art'. I need to figure out what separates effective persuasive techniques from dark arts, if anything, and if the label 'dark art' has any use.

Yes, it does, though those answers lead to further questions.

How can you gain information from a prediction you cannot test, until you die? Is there some way to test it? Or have you encountered personal evidence of an afterlife already?

Why does free will or an afterlife require a God?

It's hard to convey tone in text, but these are honest questions. If they make you uncomfortable, it's fine if you ignore them.

Regarding the sequences, you may find it easier to derive the same information from books popularizing a lot of the source material it is based on, if the sequences themselves turn you off.

What can you predict with the existence of your God that you can't predict without?

And what makes your God more likely than any other God or Gods?

I suppose it's a question of granularity. While there have been a number of sound arguments for 16/64 equalling 1/4, there are hitherto no arguments of equal strength for the existence of any particular deity.

16/64 being equal to 1/4 allows people to predict what will happen when they scale objects.

Perhaps a rating system based on proportions, symmetry, and skin health. However, I'm not convinced this is that (it is a large factor in decisions, yes, but it's not one you can change much beyond style and hygiene, unless you're willing to undergo plastic surgery) important, except in the realm of Tinder-esque situations.

If you happen to live somewhere where random people will complement you or flirt with you, I suppose number of incidents/number of people exposed to over a large span of time could be a metric.

How is a sexbot different from a sexdoll or a fleshlight and pornography?

I don't think it would create any problems in a mentally healthy individual, though it might exacerbate those suffering from pre-existing issues surrounding sex.

A large portion of my coworkers (due to the nature of the job, they're probably in that weird space between family, friend, and acquaintance) fiercely endorse beliefs that I am at odds with (against gay marriage, strong religiosity, complete climate change denial, etc) but we can discuss our beliefs (for the most part; one of them insisted he would have his daughter flogged if she 'turned gay', and then kidnapped and sent to some less accepting society to 'chase it out of her') without any heated arguments. Even if we do, we still have no problems buying ... (read more)

The scifi action flick Edge of Tomorrow might be a close-but-not-perfect example. Most of the movie is an extended training montage, with one (more or less the same as Groundhog Day) unique conceit.

The coming of age movie I Not Stupid is essentially about the distinction between a growth and fixed mindset, as played out against a backdrop of the highly competitive Singaporean education system.

Arguably Batman, when taken at face value. Due in part to sheer volume, there are probably a few story arcs from both Batman and Spider-Man comics that have elemen... (read more)

I agree, though that particular technique (in and of itself, without context) is also used as a Dark Art.

Speaking only from personal experience, it reduces akrasia rather than eliminates it.

An odd factor is an inability to engage in pure entertainment, but I wonder if this is merely a latent psychological issue specific to me that only surfaces when taking modafinil. This seems like it's a benefit, but it can be an annoyance in regards to social interaction, almost like a classic djinn wish. Since it only lasts half a day (for me) after the first week, this isn't really a problem, though.

I recommend never taking anything with caffeine in it while on modafin... (read more)

Are you thinking of Cognito?

Could it be a more targeted additional function of the lw study hall?

I do think that it's an idea that warrants further exploration.

Yesterday, I was surprised when I treated a patient (for a heart attack) to find that he later ended up in the ER. I've only treated a handful (exactly five!) with MI-like symptoms, and none of them had his low heart rate or controlled breathing. Surprise meant my model needed to be updated, and a quick look at this showed me that I really only needed two symptoms to be wary.

Physicians and other healthcare providers in the 'algorithmic' camp (vs 'clinical') essentially forecast diagnosis through probability-based predictions. Algorithms are also referred t... (read more)

Has anyone read anything about Applied Information Economics?

Within the fantasy genre, he seems well known as the current authority on the (seriously labeled, humorously adopted by him) 'grimdark' genre.

If you like that, you'll probably loveBest Served Cold and The Heroes. He's got the trappings of a debutante in The First Law, but those two books show an experienced designer at work.

There's something Tarantino-like about him, as applied to fantasy fiction. An ability to confer personality through changes in writing style is probably what truly sets him apart from other fantasy authors, though. Above all, he is abl... (read more)

My math skills are probably extremely poor, so it's been easier for me to to make large gains. Most often, this is manifest in three digit multiplication or division, in situations that don't allow for calculators. Small scale logistics (how much fuel do we need for x days in x area? How much food?) and other stuff a middle schooler wouldn't have trouble with. The difference between three minutes and thirty seconds usually doesn't matter, but I'm preparing for worst case scenarios anyway.

Currently, I have memorized nonsense paragraphs for work and basic me... (read more)

I can honestly say that utilizing a memory palace and linking was a significant jump in my life. I started training myself in their use about a year ago, but never had to put them into action in a constrained time frame until recently. It felt wonderful. Currently working on incorporating spaced repetition into my routine. My chief problem is prioritizing lists. Figuring out what needs to be memorized in a subject requires some understanding, and I usually lack that in subjects I'm deeply interested in.

A combination of mnemonic techniques and mental math m... (read more)

This is not a well thought out post, in keeping with the nature of the subject matter. Less Wrong does seem to encourage solidified thoughts rather than subconscious reactions. A good thing, I think, but difficult all the same. Ideas follow.

• An IRC-style (not necessarily chat) section which has neither votes nor a delineation between post and comment. An area for LWers to post thoughts as they occur. Restrict formatting of these posts to plain text. Not a design choice, so much as to encourage train-of-thought style conversation.
• Why upvotes at all? Why not a well defined rating scheme, in addition to use of belief tags in standalone Main and Discussion posts?

I suppose the problem with that statement was 'good' and 'working'. It is far easier to simply memorize the symptoms and general knowledge, see what it looks like on assorted Youtube videos and browsing Figure 1, which is free and accessible to the public, than it is to acquire experience with it. This is the cheapest route, and getting that initial knowledge uses the same study techniques you would use to learn, say, microeconomics.

You don't need too much (EMT and CPR) to be certified to become an Emergency Room Technician, solely to volunteer (as opposed... (read more)

Dying in Warframe? What a casual!

Your explanation seems like it might be true. I know usually encounter that problem, on the other side. Incorporating failure as an opportunity to improve is how I've dealt with it in the past, but that may be akin to someone telling a depressed person "just be happy."

A friend who's willing to explain how you could improve, and be extremely polite about it might help.

Does frequency of socialization change your feelings about it? I know, personally, that my ideal amount of socialization is about once a week with people I am close to, and once a month with strangers. There are others who need it every day, but still like a weekend away from people every now and then.

In addition, forced socialization (if your work or school requires a lot of communication, poor or otherwise) can be especially draining.

I don't believe I've ever seen them in regular over-the-counter emergency kits, but making sure you have a tourniquet within (and know it's use) reach can't hurt. A pocket mask is great, too. An AED would probably be amazing if you have over a thousand US (or it's equivalent) dollars to spend. Emergency treatments in general change pretty drastically every few years, so it would be an ongoing investment.

Have a good, working knowledge of what diabetes looks like, and various cardiac issues. While it may never happen to you, recognizing it and calling for h... (read more)

This sounds like a larger implementation of the models pathologists use to try and predict the infection rate of a disease. Considering the amount of computing power needed for that, such a service might be prohibitively expensive- at least in the near future.

I'm wondering if there would be a way for participants to place some skin in the game, besides a connection to prediction markets.

I recently joined this site after lurking for awhile. Are blog contributions of that sort are the primary purpose of Less Wrong?

It seems like it fulfills a niche that the avenues you listed do not: specifically, in the capacity of a community rather than an individual, academic, or professional endeavor.

There are applications of rational thought present in these threads that I don't see gathered anywhere else. I'm sure I'm missing something here, but could viewing Less Wrong as a potential breeding ground for contributors of that kind be useful?

I realize... (read more)

I've liked beer since adulthood, chiefly because I love coarse, bitter breads and beer (I tend to stay away from the blander productions mass marketed by the largest brewing companies) has always seemed like a wonderful liquid take on bread.

Food is my primary source of hedons, and my beverage consumption developed as an extension of that. I have a love affair with mead, a recurring fling with whiskey, and an occasional one night stand with liquors at large. I appreciate cocktails, but I've found my tastes to require seeking bartenders that are near impos... (read more)